Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why is much of the market getting crushed today?
    It doesn't appear that the market is getting "crushed".
    MarketWatch percentage change info for today:
    Nasdaq +0.41%
    S&P 500 +0.13%
    DJIA -0.28%
  • EM ESG Options
    @msf makes good points and my take-away is that we as shareholders learn late in the game what a manager’s strategy might be (or was at a point in the past). Most MF prospecti give latitude to permit an active manager to shift back and forth between growth and value, or cash and fully invested, etc. It’s nice when a fund stays true to its advertised mandate, but I suspect purity suffers in the face of markets that refuse to follow some wonk’s thinking. Once I find a fund I like, I’m inclined to let management pick the stocks.
    There are stocks and countries in EM indices that do defy pigeon-holing. When I lived in Seoul in 1980-1 the excavations for the subway line revealed that underground sewer pipes were nothing more than 55-gallon drums welded together. Korea really was emerging then. Today a visitor would be struck by the modernity of the city whereas the former resident might be trying to mentally resurrect the missing odor of sewage gas that once assaulted the nostrils in the capital. One steps off the plane in New Delhi, OTOH, and one smells an acrid smoke, a combination of industrial pollutants and the open fires burning in the streets to warm people and to cook their meals. Maybe Korea should not be in EM funds, but Taiwan is pretty modern, also.
  • Small Caps
    SCG MSSMX UP 5.01% today.
    Just sayin'.

    And my thanks for bringing it to my attention the other day. I looked at it and bought immediately; which was, fortunately, BEFORE that surprising gain! I'm a believer in the SC rotation; so your mention was timely...

    That
    WAS a surprising move yesterday, but keep in mind that with its 30+ SD, these kinds of daily moves happen with this fund, well, pretty much daily. You don't get to a ~150% annual TR (2020) without 'em!
    I've been holding ARKW and ARKG; believe me, I'm familiar with wild swings! 8^b
  • EM ESG Options
    It's not always easy to gauge a fund's style from its sectors, or its countries for that matter. For example, while companies in the financial sector tend to be value investments, that doesn't make something like Robinhood's anticipated IPO a value play.
    In any case, according to the FSEAX's latest monthly fact sheet (Dec 31), just 9.19% of the portfolio is in financials, down from 11.07% at the end of November. In comparison, technology accounts for about 1/3 of the fund.
    Zhao says that he has "reduced some positions ... that have done well and added to those that are more exposed to the value side [i.e. those that have not done well]. ... it only makes sense to take some profits off the table and begin to plan what might come next."
    That sounds more like rebalancing than a change it target weighting. The interview is dated Oct 31. M*'s factor analysis based on the fund's Nov 30th portfolio shows the fund to be more toward the growth side of the value/growth spectrum than in any time over the past five years, and also more growth focused than the category average.
    Regarding countries: FSEAX counts the 12% of its portfolio in Korea as EM. Most index providers consider Korea a developed country. MSCI is the laggard, still calling Korea an EM country - because the won isn't traded 24 hours/day, not because its gross national income is too low or its stock market too small (they're not).
    Some investors posit that separate international funds are not needed because so many domestic countries derive much of their revenue globally. By that reasoning, what are we to say about TSMC (6% of the fund)? Is it really an EM company? Based in Taiwan, it gets 60% of its revenue from the US.
    None of this is meant to suggest that FSEAX isn't good at what it does. Rather it's to suggest taking a closer look at this, or any fund, to understand what it's really doing.
  • EM ESG Options
    here is an interview with the fund manager of FSEAX where he describes how he is rotating to value for 2021. Financials are now the largest sector in his portfolio. https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/analysis/315910851?documentType=QAA
  • Stock and Bond Return Forecasts
    GMO: Grantham, yes? I take what he says with a pound of salt.
    +5million @crash
  • EM ESG Options
    @BenWP yes that caught my eye too in the fund. They're sector exposure is also very interesting with strong weightings in consumer cyclical, financials, and industrials. So it is more value oriented. I havent bought it yet but watching it. Another fund Im really intrigued by is MATFX. Pull it up on Morningstar and you'll see it scores in the top 10% for pretty much every period from 1 week through 5 years. Ive been following the manager for awhile now. Very sharp guy. This is a growth fund focused on disruption. At some point I'll buy one of these or add to FSEAX.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Front Row , Bloomberg, Jeremy Grantham interview video, about 28 minutes
    Much of what Grantham says appeals to my old fashioned mind. BUT. The Fed at this point appears to be fully committed to managing the economy. It clearly accepts the inefficiencies that result from the "artificially low interest rates" (per Grantham) it engineers. If the stock market bubble does burst, it will not surprise me if the Fed and Treasury figure out a way justify purchasing stocks. Managing the stock market could be deemed necessary to stabilize the financial system and the economy as well as to minimize hardship among vulnerable labor force participants and those still seeking employment.
    https://thestreet.com/opinion/federal-reserve-buy-stocks
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Front Row , Bloomberg, Jeremy Grantham interview video, about 28 minutes
  • Small Caps
    SCG MSSMX UP 5.01% today.
    Just sayin'.

    And my thanks for bringing it to my attention the other day. I looked at it and bought immediately; which was, fortunately, BEFORE that surprising gain! I'm a believer in the SC rotation; so your mention was timely...
    That WAS a surprising move yesterday, but keep in mind that with its 30+ SD, these kinds of daily moves happen with this fund, well, pretty much daily. You don't get to a ~150% annual TR (2020) without 'em!
  • Small Caps
    SCG MSSMX UP 5.01% today.
    Just sayin'.
    And my thanks for bringing it to my attention the other day. I looked at it and bought immediately; which was, fortunately, BEFORE that surprising gain! I'm a believer in the SC rotation; so your mention was timely...
  • Will Amazon Stock Split: The Share Split Trend
    Just a thorough and interesting discussion of the topic.
    The Cliff Notes version: nobody but Mr. Bezos knows.
    SA Article
  • Small Caps
    SCG MSSMX UP 5.01% today.
    Just sayin'.
  • ark-etf's Too Popular !?
    Well Cathie Wood has done extremely well and she has increased assets in her fund to $45B from $2B just a year ago. She also takes on an inordinate amount of risk. So far that has played out very well but I doubt that will continue. At some point the chickens will come home to roost. Proceed with caution
  • ark-etf's Too Popular !?
    ALL investments involve risk. The ARK funds are no different. Being an investor of some of them in the mid $50's I'm not worried, Yet. It's how one manages the risks that's important.
  • ATT Dividend
    Morningstar says the "payout ratio" is 135.75% (i.e. that ATT is not earning its dividend).
    Value Line says "all dividends to net profit" is 63% (i.e. that the dividend is quite well covered by earnings.)
    Am I interpreting these numbers incorrectly, or are they simply in conflict ?