Thanks
@MikeM. Great question. You & I go way back on this one.
WOW - Lots of changes for me the past few years.
- My original benchmark (for
15-20 years) was TRRIX (40/60) - although I deviated away to “buy down” on equities during the ‘07-‘09 meltdown.
- Beginning in 202
1 I switched my benchmark to PRSIX (also 40/60) and for the first time decided to include a small weighting (7%) of the benchmark inside the portfolio. Switching was bad timing. PRSIX, which for years has outperformed TRRIX, lagged badly during 202
1.
- In late 202
1 I sold PRSIX and moved to
PSMM for a benchmark, also buying a small slice. The advantages were lower cost and ease of trading in and out. It’s 40/60 with the ability to alter its allocation as managers see fit. Yikes - the bond exposure seemed to really jerk this one around, so I quickly exited.
- Early this year I developed a tri-fund tracker (
benchmark) I like so far. This tracker follows three equally weighted funds: AOK (30/70), PRSIX (40/60) and ABRZX. The only one I own is ABRZX to the tune of 7+%. (I’m sure there are superior funds.) It’s a quirky fund you need to follow to appreciate. But, using derivatives it provides a moderate “hedged” exposure to commodities, stocks, and bonds.
How am I holding up? I’m pleased to be ahead of the benchmark YTD. Below is the performance of those benchmark components this year. Age and circumstance dictate a rather conservative approach - and I’ve never maintained a separate cash stash.
AOK -4.52%
PRSIX -4.45%
ABRZX -3.
10%
YTD
benchmark average: -4.02%
Yesterday, the tracker dropped 0.
12% (equally weighted in dollar terms). / My portfolio was right in-line with that (although some days it varies a bit).
One reason is I’ve been maintaining a speculative position in TAIL (an inverse fund) to the tune of 6-7%.
There’s an old cliche about
“if you don’t have a road map you’ll never realize by how far you’ve missed your mark.”@MikeM - I admire your work with benchmarks. Generally you’ve chosen wisely. One thing I’d toss out is I’ve noticed TRP doing some things in their allocation funds over the past year (assuming you benchmark to them) that indicate
hedging on their part. One is overweighting their Dynamic Global Income fund (RPIEX) which appears to short bonds to some extent and also ISTM they’ve beefed up exposure to floating rate bonds. Also, TMSRX is showing up in some. For RPSIX it comprises 4% of holdings.
In my own case, I’m “playing with fire” having built up a near
10% spec position to hedge what I still perceive as expensive equity markets. Mostly TAIL but also GLDB which holds longer-dated corporates and gold. They haven’t made $$ yet - but they have buffered some of the bigger downdrafts in the markets. “Staying power” is worth something.
FWIW