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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stimulus checks
    yeah, just click okay --- standard UI behavior for some mindsets ...
    We got our $1200 paper checks in the mail yesterday. Going to think about which worthy orgs to pass some of this along to, as well as setaside for granddaughter tk, hopefully in 6w, born under a woman VP.
    Like some other boomers, if I stay afloat, and assuming grandchildren live past age 100, I who got to know fairly well a famous grandfather born 1885 will have been good acquaintances with individual lives spanning almost a quarter-millennium. Cool. (Was I geezing?)
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    BCSVX is an interesting share. One I will add to my watch list. This is probably too much of a generalization but... Emerging Markets is a riskier area. Now add Small Cap to it... a bit more risky. So, when I look at 10 plus years of returns on these funds it seems like none of them beat the S&P 500 and they all have a high Ulcer and low Martin and many have high ER. So, why do I own some FPADX? I will compare to FSEAX and BCSVX and perhaps transfer to one of those or out of EM completely myself. I guess I'm repeating what Baseball Fan said above.
  • James Kieffer no longer associated with Artisan Mid Cap Value and Value Funds
    They'll probably be forming their own shop.
    Perhaps ultimately, but "Jim Kieffer ... will remain part of the investment team for the time being, working as an analyst, advisor, and mentor."
    (M* Analyst Note for ARTQX.)
    This contrasts with the simultaneous announcement at ARTGX that Justin Bandy is leaving immediately. Perhaps the difference is that Kieffer is a lead manager while Bandy had recently been added to ARTGX and this was his first managing assignment.
    The new M* quote page for funds presents the inflows and outflows graphically. ARTQX had major outflows in 2013-2015 but since then flows have been pretty quiescent, especially in 2020. ARTLX shows a similar pattern, though its major outflows were in 2015-2016.
    It is reasonable to suggest that ARTGX has not fared well against its world fund peers because that category includes blend and growth as well as value funds. But ARTQX has been lagging its domestic value peers (2* over the past three years). ARTLX has been running hot and cold (four bottom decile years and three top decile years over the past decade).
  • Stimulus checks
    No "Blue Button" for me!
    Access Denied
    You don't have permission to access "http://sa.www4.irs.gov/irfof-wmsp/login" on this server.
    Reference #18.5d96df17.1610490567.27eaa84
    THIS U.S. GOVERNMENT SYSTEM IS FOR AUTHORIZED USE ONLY!
    Use of this system constitutes consent to monitoring, interception, recording, reading, copying or capturing by authorized personnel of all activities. There is no right to privacy in this system. Unauthorized use of this system is prohibited and subject to criminal and civil penalties, including all penalties applicable to willful unauthorized access (UNAX) or inspection of taxpayer records (under 18 U.S.C. 1030 and 26 U.S.C. 7213A and 26 U.S.C. 7431).
  • Stimulus checks
    There we go, the government is doing it differently this time.
    It announced that in lieu of checks some people would be getting debit cards. Same as last time. Who? Why? Who knows? The IRS writes:
    For those who don’t receive a direct deposit by early January, they should watch their mail for either a paper check or a debit card. To speed delivery of the payments to reach as many people as soon as possible, the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, part of the Treasury Department, will be sending a limited number of payments out by debit card. Please note that the form of payment for the second mailed EIP may be different than for the first mailed EIP. Some people who received a paper check last time might receive a debit card this time, and some people who received a debit card last time may receive a paper check.
    Last year I received direct deposit. I gave the same bank account on my 2018 and 2019 returns, but this year I'm getting something in the mail. I don't know what yet (check or card). All I know is that it was supposedly mailed on the 6th and it hasn't arrived yet.
    There's something else the government is doing differently - it slowed down the USPS.
    ("The Postal Service delivered only 70.6 percent of first-class mail items on time during the week of Dec. 12, the most recent data available, compared with better than 95 percent during the same period last year." WaPo Jan, 5)
    To check the status of your Economic Impact Payment (EIP), click on the blue Get My Payment button near the top of this page:
    https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment
  • T Rowe Price
    By now TRP should able fully geared to work from home. Customer support can be done with broadband connection. That how IT support is being done.
    I performed asset transfer online at Fidelity last week and it was completed in 5 days. As I recall, TRP requires signed paper forms several years ago. If that is the case, it is likely sitting in their Maryland office.
  • James Kieffer no longer associated with Artisan Mid Cap Value and Value Funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312521006862/d880577d497.htm
    Excerpt:
    4. All other references to James C. Kieffer and any related information in the prospectus and SAI will be hereby removed.
  • VLAAX vs FPURX vs PRWCX
    Note that in private discussion with another poster who inquired about PLBBX I stated that it is on my 50%-70% alternate list. Mighty fine fund over both the ST and LT that just never made its way to an actual holding of mine.
  • Waiting for the Last Dance -- Jeremy Grantham
    Here are a couple of more stock market bubble articles, the first one short and second one with a fair amount of detailed background info:

    First Article: Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator hits 13-year high, signaling global stocks are most overvalued since the financial crisis
    The gauge climbed past 121% last weekend, Bloomberg data shows, marking its highest reading since October 2007. Welt market analyst Holger Zschaepitz flagged the worrying milestone in a tweet.
    "Buffett indicator sounds the alarm," he said. "Global stock mkt cap has now topped 120% of global GDP, and thus the same level as before the crash in 2008."
    Second Article: Yes, Virginia. There Is A Stock Market Bubble. Lance Roberts
    We see that the claims on the economy should, quite intuitively, track the economy itself. Excesses occur whenever the economy’s claims, the so-called financial assets (stocks, bonds, and derivatives), get too far ahead of the economy itself.
    The increase in speculative risks, combined with excess leverage, leave the markets vulnerable to a sizable future correction. The only missing ingredient for such a reversion is the catalyst to bring “fear” into an overly complacent marketplace.
    It is all reminiscent of the market peak of 1929 when Dr. Irving Fisher uttered his now-famous words: “Stocks have now reached a permanently high plateau.”
  • Roth IRA for my grandson
    Congratulations to them. They're in good company, especially starting out.
    Warren Buffett called an S&P 500 index fund “the best thing” for most people who want to invest.
    As part of his remarks offering some broader advice about investing at his company’s first-ever virtual annual meeting on May 2 [2020], Buffett said, “In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 index fund,” which would track the S&P 500.
  • Roth IRA for my grandson
    Some months ago, I asked for suggestions for a fund for my 21-year-old grandson, who wanted to open a Roth IRA. Many people gave me advice and suggestions, which I so appreciated. After talking with my grandson and passing along suggestions, he decided on FXAIX, Fidelity 500 Index Fund. And, my 25-year-old granddaughter (his sister) decided to open a Roth also, and into the same fund. I helped them open their accounts over the weekend. I wanted to come back and say thank you again, and let you know what he (and now she) decided.
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    FSEAX compared to the others mentioned: VAESX, WAEMX, GPEOX - looks very promising. MEASX ... too much of a slump... I may have to look further into FSEAX. Up 5.50 ytd BTW.
  • My basic screen. What's yours?
    Hi Jon, I would look at expense ratio. You can buy the NASDAQ 100 cheaper than RYOCX. Turnover on the Fidelity fund is higher than I like. Are they that smart?
    I would also look at the structure of the fund family. I lean against publicly traded companies. I would look at how much the managers are putting into the fund. And then I would look at the over-all success rate of the family. Is the particular fund a one-off? Is it out of their typical area of expertise?
    I'm assuming you have read their documentation. So you have a solid grip on their investing thesis. And it makes sense to you at the moment.
    Not all of those factors can be determined from MFO premium.
    Good luck
    I hope I'm posting this question in the right discussion. Here goes...
    Using Quick Search criteria:
    Category – Large-Cap Growth
    MFO Rating – 4-5 Above Average
    Display Period – 10 years
    I picked 3 random funds in the top APR
    FBGRX = 4 MFO Risk, 4 MFO Rating, 4.8 Ulcer, 3.91 Martin, -17.2 MAXDD, ER .79
    RYOCX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFO Rating, 4.1 Ulcer, 4.54 Martin, -17.4 MAXDD, ER 1.38
    LCGFX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFOR Rating, 4.0 Ulcer, 4.24 Martin, -17.6 MAXDD, ER .65
    All 3 of these funds apr is between 17.9 and 19.4. The criteria I listed above is very close to one another except perhaps for the ER in RYOCX. So, how would you go about using MFO to pick the best 1 of the 3. What other criteria is absolutely critical to you within MFO Premium to select the best fund in the category?
    Notice that I chose Large Cap Growth on purpose. I’m just trying to understand how I will use MFO premium and what criteria you all use from it. @Sven just pointed out that the Asset Correlation is important as I'm trying to refine my portfolio to be balanced and diversified. Asset correlation is contained in premium per sven.
  • VANGUARD
    @Crash I feel your pain on this but allow me to offer a slightly different viewpoint. I use a password manager that is solid. One master password is all I have to remember. It keeps 100's of other passwords for me (I have more than 500) and they are all generated by the manager. I only have to remember one. HOWEVER... all of my banking and brokerages - I use 2 Factor authentication. So, if I log in to a bank or brokerage... I WANT a text verifying that it's me. This gives me the best of both worlds. I have the password manager to login to most of the sites that I use that require a login but my financial ones... I'm protected by the 2 factor authentication. Edit: And I use BRAVE as a browser. It's an ad blocker built in etc. So I know what you are trying to accomplish there.
  • Digital Assets
    Marketwatch story on the volatility of Bitcoin. The story was interesting (especially the table comparing bitcoin to gold and stocks etc). However, the first comment to the article by Larry Horowitz was also interesting and repeats what @bee said above about Fidelity creating a digital asset platform.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-sees-bear-market-skid-living-up-to-its-reputation-for-seismic-price-swings-11610391398?mod=home-page
    I confess - I don't own any bitcoin... but it doesnt stop me from being curious. I mean Michael Saylor of Microstrategies took $500M of cash from his companies balance sheet and invested it in Bitcoin because with inflation... it was costing him too much money by leaving it in the bank.
  • My basic screen. What's yours?
    I hope I'm posting this question in the right discussion. Here goes...
    Using Quick Search criteria:
    Category – Large-Cap Growth
    MFO Rating – 4-5 Above Average
    Display Period – 10 years
    I picked 3 random funds in the top APR
    FBGRX = 4 MFO Risk, 4 MFO Rating, 4.8 Ulcer, 3.91 Martin, -17.2 MAXDD, ER .79
    RYOCX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFO Rating, 4.1 Ulcer, 4.54 Martin, -17.4 MAXDD, ER 1.38
    LCGFX = 4 MFO Risk, 5 MFOR Rating, 4.0 Ulcer, 4.24 Martin, -17.6 MAXDD, ER .65
    All 3 of these funds apr is between 17.9 and 19.4. The criteria I listed above is very close to one another except perhaps for the ER in RYOCX. So, how would you go about using MFO to pick the best 1 of the 3. What other criteria is absolutely critical to you within MFO Premium to select the best fund in the category?
    Notice that I chose Large Cap Growth on purpose. I’m just trying to understand how I will use MFO premium and what criteria you all use from it. @Sven just pointed out that the Asset Correlation is important as I'm trying to refine my portfolio to be balanced and diversified. Asset correlation is contained in premium per sven.
  • VLAAX vs FPURX vs PRWCX
    Stillers, have you had occasion to look at the variants of AIGPX (available at Wells with low minimum)?
    Yes, used to own it and it sits just below VWIAX and FMSDX on my 30%-50% list. Its 2020 blowout year jumped it to the top TR performer of the three. It is however largely a LC/MC Growth fund on the stock side. I prefer to get that exposure through the higher stock allocation AA funds and dedicated Growth funds. That said, if I added another 30%-50% AA fund, this would likely be it.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    Many financial advisors will help you to draw up a balanced and diversified investment portfolio. Ideally, funds chosen will have negative asset correlation to each other. High quality bonds and equities are the classic examples. While in drawdown situations, the bonds will advanced when the equities fall. The net result is to have a reduced level of loss and the portfolio will recover in a shorter timeframe. More importantly, this helps the investors psychologically and they are more likely to stay the course rather than sell at the bottom.
    If you read January's article from Lynn Bolin, a plot showing Vanguard Wellington fund (65/35 stocks/bonds allocation) versus S&P 500 index achieved the same level of gain over a prolong period. This is achieved with less ups and down. Wellesley Income fund (35/65) was also included on the plot.
    Asset correlation can be found in MFO Premium.
  • 2020 Asset Performance
    @Sven thanks for a great explanation. Makes complete sense. It's interesting because for the Buy and Hold investor that invests in let's say just Index Funds or the S&P 500 with a 10 year or more horizon... they can lose sleep too. If they jump off the roller coaster, they lock in their loss as you say. So, basically what you are saying and others at MFO ... the goal is to invest in funds with more consistent returns over longer periods of time? A lower drawdown number would certainly be part of that volatility equation.
    That is my ultimate goal anyway: Find funds that consistently beat the S&P 500 over long periods of time with the less volatility, same or a tad more. This is a difficult task. Of course, by choosing "longer periods of time"... I miss out on the Grandeur Peak Global's that may be terrific over the short term (and it looks like they are) but I just need a bit more history. Does this make sense?
    @Crash I think you are absolutely right re: juicing the economy. So, if you follow that logic - don't you think 2021 will be even juicier? I can't see Yellen and team providing less stimulus and monkeying with rates too much. Grantham BTW says "“This bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios,” in his book.