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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • For those who believe Covid will not affect the young
    Here is a little more info:
    In the vast majority of younger adults, covid-19 appears to result in mild illness with the risk of more severe consequences rising with every decade of age. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 0.8 percent of U.S. deaths as of Apr. 18 were in people ages 25 to 34; 2 percent among those 35 to 44; and 5.4 percent among those 45 to 54.
    From: https://washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
    Also, there seems to be a fairly strong link between having a severe case of Covid-19 and being obese among young people:
    Young adults with obesity are more likely to be hospitalized, even if they have no other health problems, studies show.
    https://nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html
  • For those who believe Covid will not affect the young
    First of all, since when is below the age of 60 considered "young?" People in the their 40s and 50s are not "young." This is a nice way to skew the numbers. I live in Massachusetts and know all about the numbers in the state. Bottom line: It's a scandal for nursing homes and long term care facilities, where 50-60% of all deaths in the state are occurring. Average age of death from the Chinese Flu is 82 years old in Mass. Most people that die are in their 70s and older. Look at the Mass. DPH numbers and get back to me. If you are really "young," you have virtually nothing to worry about, other than getting a cold or flu-like symptoms.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    @Charles - no doubt small comfort but IOFIX is up 10% over the last month.
    With respect to the SEC filing against Semper this is an old issue about pricing of odd-lot MBS securities in 2013-2014.
    The SEC states that 126 odd lots were priced according to round lot prices, leading to an overstatement of approx 3.5% of their value, and thus an elevated NAV during that period.
    SEC alleges willful violation and other funds were cited as well (Pimco etc.)
    It is not related to the most recent fund collapse.
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Hello ... and, Good Mroning! Here in the States, as I write, stock futures are up across the board along with oil. Could be a good day for stocks. Treasury yields are up which means bond prices have declined as yields and prices generally move in an opposite direction of one another.
    Inspite of the decline in the S&P 500 Index yesterday my portfolio did well due to a good number of foreign markets having an up day as I have about a 30% weighting to foreign. My three best performing funds yesterday were PMDAX +1.98% (a domestic small/mid cap dividend value fund) ... DWGAX +1.23% (a developing world dividend paying equity fund) ... and, HWIAX (1.11%) a deep value dividend paying hybrid fund). Seems some investors might be in the hunt for dividends, and value, now that equity valuations appear to be streached.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    I'm in the SEMRX doghouse. Fortunately I'm down only $85, but now feel like a dope for buying this fund !
  • Little features of brokerages that may matter
    There are many different features that lead someone to prefer one financial institution over another. I came up with a number of relatively minor features that I personally place some value in. Haven't found a single perfect institution though. YMMV.
    - individual 401(k): free, Roth option, in-service distributions, investment options (full brokerage or house funds). See The College Investor for other features and major providers. Some brokerages provide Roth options; Fidelity and Schwab do not. Vanguard and T. Rowe Price do provide a Roth option, but limit investments to house funds.
    - Retail HSA account (not through employer): free, no min cash balance required to invest. Fidelity is the only brokerage I know of that offers HSA accounts directly. Lively (an HSA provider) gives you a brokerage window to TD Ameritrade. See The HSA Report Card for detailed analyses of HSA providers.
    - Cash management (bank) services: bill pay, checking, good interest (relatively speaking), ATM access. Vanguard has high interest and checking, but no bill pay or ATM card. At Vanguard and Fidelity, if your core account does not have enough cash to cover a check, they can automatically draw from another (higher yielding) MMF. Many brokerages other than Vanguard provide bill pay and ATM access with surcharge rebates. These features are not so important if you employ a regular bank account.
    Schwab's ATM card charges no foreign (international) transaction fee; Fidelity's sometimes charges a 1% fee. Others tend to charge at least this much and may limit surcharge rebates to US ATMs.
    - Fractional share purchases of stocks/ETFs (e.g. $100 exactly of MINT). This is something Schwab promised. AFAIK only Fidelity has delivered. (Robinhood rolled out fractional shares earlier this month but it doesn't support limit orders.) Fractional shares is the only "yet to use" feature on my list. It should make buying ETFs easier - more like mutual funds.
    - Donor advised funds:low min to open, low grant min, low maintenance cost, low cost funds, wide variety of funds. T. Rowe Price seems to have the lowest "all in" (admin + fund expenses) cost for actively managed funds, but not lowest if using index funds. Fidelity and Schwab have the lowest mins and are low cost. Fidelity has a small advantage on fund costs and variety of funds. Not that one needs many funds for this type of account. It's convenient if the DAF account is with your brokerage as that makes contributing easier.
    This list of 74 DAFs is about a decade old, but still gives a good sense of costs and what's out there.
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Hi @Crash, I'm thinking that S&P 500 pushing 3000 streaches things a bit. With this, I'm looking for it to trade sideways and range bound for a while. Again, earnings are going to have to come in around the $150.00+ range to support a 3000+ valuation. I don't think we are there yet. Perhaps, by late summer or early fall things will be somewhat sorted out by then with Q3 and Q4 earings looking better.
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    ...And yet, the day's action fizzled. NASDAQ got killed. International was better, I hope, as I reach for a 2nd cup of Joe at 10:50 a.m.
  • Updated Trinity Study for 2020 – More Withdrawal Rates!
    Thanks for this info. I need to work through the app David linked. I imagine it’s similar to https://www.firecalc.com/
    I like the idea of using the rates the IRS uses for RMDs - Which is discussed here:
    https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal
    I am somewhat of a believer in the “Retirement Redzone” theory which says you need to be somewhat conservative in your investments in the last 5 years before retirement. But also in the first 5 years of retirement when you have 30 more years to go living off what you have.
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Hi @Derf, Thaks for stopping by and reading along with your question concerning stock picking (active management) vs. Index funds in which you seek a yes (or no) answer. For me ... the answer depends ... and, I'll explain. Some actively managed funds will beat the S&P 500 Index while some will trail it. In looking back over my portfolio I have five activley managed equity funds that over a five and ten year period that have bettered the Index (SPY). Over a one and three year period I have six actively managed all equity funds that have bettered the Index (SPY). I also have some good dividend paying equity funds that pay a higher dividend than the Index and overall trail it a bit. With this, and in some cases the answer to your question is a yes and under another the answer is a no.
    My thinking is that a lot will depend on how new money money gets invested. Under an Index format new money gets spread through the Index lifting all positions held. In a cap weighted Index it gets spread based upon a cap weighted basis with larger positions catching more of the money over smaller ones. In an equally weighted Index new money is spread evenly. And, in actively managed funds it gets invested upon the manager's call.
    With this, there is not, from my perspective, a yes (or a no) answer to be found ... as it depends.
    Skeet
  • Coronavirus Is Likely to Become a Seasonal Infection Like the Flu, Top Chinese Scientists Warn
    Yep
    The only question is will we have robust testing and contact tracing up and running when it comes back.
    I strongly recommend Tomas Pueyo series for common sense and solid recommendations.
    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e
    Unfortunately no one in Washington is listening
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    @bee Sorry if I'm being dense. My wife has an HSA through her employer. I understand contributions are tax deferred and I also understand it converts to IRA after you retire, or if you lose your job. What I didn't know however is you can invest it right away. First, will find out if the HSA is even invested is some fund at her employer plan. Second, if possible to divert funds into external fund.
    However, most important question. Isn't investing it risky? I mean what if fund tanks right about the time you need to pay doctor and you run out of cash? For us, HSA just started last year and we used a bit of it of course already, so not much there at this time.
    We have had many thorough conversations here at MFO. Here's what I searched:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/search?Search=HSA
    Just a few points I have gathered about how an HSA works:
    HSA is triple tax advantage. Tax deductible when contributed (you have many contribution options...including mutual funds...Fidelity seems to be providing a great platform for HSA investment options).
    HSA's grow tax deferred. If used after 65 for non-medical withdrawals you will pay taxes in the year you make those withdrawals much like an deferred IRA. There is a 10% penalty for non-medical withdrawals prior to 65. There is no actual RMDs, but if you plan on reimbursing yourself later don't leave tax free withdrawals on the table forever...HSA withdrawal rules change for beneficiaries after you die.
    Medically qualified withdrawals are always tax free at anytime and withdrawals can be reimbursable at a later point in time (this could be many years later) if you pay out of pocket instead of your HSA. Keep track of medical qualified expenses for these reimbursements. Keep track of what you have already paid for and what you plan on being reimbursed for. Make a spreadsheet...save records.
    Inheritable HSA provisions are completely transferable to your spouse as a Spousal HSA. If your beneficiary is a spouse it continues to have tax-free withdrawal status. A non-spouse inherits an HSA much like an Inherited IRA (taxable)...Inherited HSA. If your beneficiaries are non- spouse(s) make sure you reimburse yourself before you pass. In this manner you have made a tax free withdrawal (your withdrawal is tax free while alive). Even if you don't need this withdrawal you can at least pass it tax free to beneficiaries.
  • Coronavirus Is Likely to Become a Seasonal Infection Like the Flu, Top Chinese Scientists Warn
    The staying power of Covid-19 will impact the investing landscape until a vaccine is widely available.
    Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu.
    It’s unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.
    https://time.com/5828325/coronavirus-covid19-seasonal-asymptomatic-carriers/
  • U.S. Global Investors Fund's Holmes Macro Trends Fund changing name
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101507/000143510920000104/usgi_497e.htm
    497 1 usgi_497e.htm
    U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS FUNDS
    Holmes Macro Trends Fund (the “Fund”)
    Investor Class Shares
    Supplement dated April 28, 2020, to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2019, as supplemented
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING THE FUND’S NAME, INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND PRIMARY BENCHMARK INDEX
    At the March 27, 2020 meeting of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of U.S. Global Investors Funds, the Board approved, at the recommendation of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., the investment adviser to the Fund (“Adviser”), changes to the Fund’s name, investment strategies, and primary benchmark index, in order to highlight a focus on luxury goods-related investments.
    These changes, which were summarized in a supplement to the Fund’s prospectus dated March 31, 2020, and which were expected to become effective on May 1, 2020, have been postponed pending the resolution of regulatory considerations, and will not be implemented until further notice is made to shareholders.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    1-800-873-8637.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Good morning. As I write, stocks are set to add to Monday's gains as the futures are up across the board both here in the States and abroad. As stocks have moved upward the VIX has been in decline and now resides in the low to mid 30's. In addition, Treasury yields now seem to be slowly rising. I'm thinking to support this upward move, in the stock market, earnings are going to have to be reflected in the $150 (or better) range for the S&P 500 Index to trade and hold the 3,000+ range mark. The Index has now regained more lost ground and it is well above of where I thought we would currently now be ... and ... on through most of the summer.
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    @kings53man, I have been retired for more than five years and I may use my HSA to cover medical, dental, eye, prescription meds and most recently over the counter meds not covered by my Medicare PPO.
  • Money market fund at Merrill Edge?
    If you've got $100K in cash, Merrill provides access to some institutional funds. Even these are pretty anemic, struggling to get up to 1/4%, unless you're willing to try one of the floating NAV money market funds created specifically for institutions. They'll get you all the way up to about 2/3%.
    If all you've got is $5,000 for a MMF, they'll sell you a fixed $1.00 NAV fund (BPTXX) paying a nice round number, zero exactly! And that's for a non-sweep fund.
    Here's the rate sheet: https://olui2.fs.ml.com/Publish/Content/application/pdf/GWMOL/ICCRateSheet.pdf