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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 50% of this fund is invested in 1 stock.
    The SEC has rules for diversified vs nondiversified funds. BPTRX is nondiversified.
    That is the problem with rule-making. There are feeder funds that hold 100% in another fund; the new wrapper may just have different ER and/or eligibility. This is a common practice in 401k/403b. Although that is different from holding huge % in one stock, it is hard to legislate concentration. If the SEC wanted to change this, it could have done this when it found feeder funds that were feeding into Madoff's ponzi fund.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPTRX/profile?p=BPTRX
  • BIVIX
    Spoke with Ali Motamed, one of the two PMs on the fund. Their strategy has three different products, and as an all-cap fund, it will hard close at 1.3-1.5 AUM, allowing it to invest in smaller companies when they see opportunities there. This was also mentioned in their December commentary and will be repeated in their January commentary when it's published.
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    Of course Hunt has been saying that for years. If you want to just read his views in six pages go to the Hoisington Investment Management Company website economic reports 4th quarterly outlook
    https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2021Q4NP.pdf
  • The Economist
    Anybody subscribe and can read the entire article? I just got this snippet, although the argument is familiar
    "The Economist offers an insightful big picture overview this week in What would happen if financial markets crashed?:
    Today America’s financial system looks nothing like it did before the crashes of 2001 and 2008, yet lately there have been some familiar signs of froth and fear on Wall Street: wild trading days on no real news, sudden price swings and a queasy feeling among many investors that they have overdosed on techno-optimism. Having soared in 2021, shares on Wall Street had their worst January since 2009, falling by 5.3%. The prices of assets favoured by retail investors, like tech stocks, cryptocurrencies and shares in electric-car makers, have plunged. The once-giddy mood on r/wallstreetbets, a forum for digital day-traders, is now mournful.
    It is tempting to think that the January sell-off was exactly what was needed, purging the stock market of its speculative excesses. But America’s new-look financial system is still loaded with risks. Asset prices are high: the last time shares were so pricey relative to long-run profits was before the slumps of 1929 and 2001, and the extra return for owning risky bonds is near its lowest level for a quarter of a century. Many portfolios have loaded up on “long-duration” assets that yield profits only in the distant future. And central banks are raising interest rates to tame inflation."
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    For a contrary and apocalyptic view Lacy Hunt is always worth listening to. He has believed that the debt burden of the US and the world is so huge that it will strangle the economy and create a massive depression.
    This is a pretty technical interview, although it is not really a debate between him and Harvey Bassman about what will happen to interest rates in that scenario.
    https://www.simplify.us/news-media/keeping-it-simple-ep10-inflation-and-rates-lacy-hunt?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=203561693&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_hy0mKttax8Lt0RU223QWBcMW4ljj2Xx3VNdImJKr9ZCZT9GaN69IMwvpH1M7P4EPhSvC98uCw10-FCieU-sOMTW5Gxw&utm_content=203561693&utm_source=hs_automation
  • 50% of this fund is invested in 1 stock.
    Baron has in general run very good funds and has been able to attract and keep good employees
    I am kinda surprised the SEC lets him get away with it in a fund under the 1940s law. I haven't read the law specifically but I thought it required "diversification"
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    @davfor,
    Interesting:
    1 yr - Still lot of green
    5 yr - Energy still negative
    Thanks for the link.
  • William Blair to liquidate three bond funds
    Something that pops out when one looks at these funds is that they all had management overhauls within the past couple of years. M* lists each fund's average manager tenure as just one year. The former managers of these three funds, Christopher Vincent and Paul Sularz (all but BIFIX) appear to have retired in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
    William Blair rebooted its fixed income program. It hired Ruta Ziverte in 2019 to "develop[] and execute[] [its] fixed-income growth strategy (in conjunction with other members of the team), team leadership, and select portfolio management." (From M*). One might surmise that the company wasn't thrilled with the short term progress and decided to pull the plug on this relatively small corner of the company (no fund with over $300M AUM).
    Until it was shut down in Nov. 2015 the company did have a MMF - Ready Reserves Fund (RRFXX / WBRXX). Kathleen M. Lynch, the new lead manager of WBLIX co-managed Ready Reserves from 2010 until its demise in 2015; the aforementioned Vincent was the lead manager since 2003. The fund's inception was June 22, 1988.
    The Macro Allocation Fund (WMCIX / WMCNX) has been co-managed by the same two people, Singer and Clarke, since its inception in 2011. The fund does not have a manager dedicated to fixed income. Between 2011 and 2016, Singer and Clarke co-managed PMFIX (as part of a team with more senior managers).
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    @hank, treasury yield-curve continued to flatten. As easy read is from 2Y-10Y spread,
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST10Y-$UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66195125656
    @Observant1, when faster MA (50-dMA) crosses slower 200-dMA (200-dMA), that may point to trend reversal. Death-cross is likely to happen for Nasdaq Comp first and there WILL be lot of news on this when it happens - I am just pointing to it earlier. Weeks is long time for the markets, so one will have to check back on Nasdaq-100/QQQ later.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    @yogibearbull,
    I'm not very familiar with technical analysis.
    How reliable of an indicator is the 50-Day / 200-Day SMA death cross?
    Do you know if there were death cross patterns for the S&P 500 prior to sell-offs in 2000 - 2002, 2008, 2018 Q4, and 2020 Q1?
    Thank you!
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Monday was a bit curious in that most of the defensive funds I track (about a half dozen) failed to hold water in the face of a rather broad based market selloff. HSGFX managed to loose .44%.
    CCOR lost 1,50%. SWAN down .88% And DRSK off about .30%.
    Gold and miners have been hot for 2-3 days. The futures tonight have gold approaching $1900, which would be close to a 1 year high.
    Don’t know what happened to the yield curve today, but it looks like the shorter duration stuff got hit harder than farther out.
  • William Blair to liquidate three bond funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/822632/000119312522041565/d448645d497.htm
    497 1 d448645d497.htm WILLIAM BLAIR FUNDS
    WILLIAM BLAIR FUNDS
    WILLIAM BLAIR BOND FUND
    WILLIAM BLAIR SHORT DURATION BOND FUND
    WILLIAM BLAIR ULTRA-SHORT DURATION BOND FUND
    Supplement to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated May 1, 2021, as Supplemented
    Upon recommendation of the Adviser, the Board of Trustees of William Blair Funds (the “Trust”) determined that it was in the best interests of each of the William Blair Bond Fund, William Blair Short Duration Bond Fund, and William Blair Ultra-Short Duration Bond Fund (each a “Fund” and collectively the “Funds”) to redeem all the shares of the Funds on or before April 15, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”), and then terminate the Funds. Shareholder approval of the liquidation is not required. The Funds will be closed to new investors effective February 14, 2022 but will remain open for investment until February 28, 2022 for existing shareholders.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the Funds’ shareholders may redeem all or a portion of their shares or exchange their Fund shares for shares in the corresponding class of another fund of the Trust pursuant to procedures set forth in the William Blair Funds’ Prospectus. If you wish to exchange your shares into another fund of the Trust, or would like to request additional copies of the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Trust including other funds for which you may exchange your shares of the Funds, please call William Blair Funds Shareholder Services or your William Blair client representative at the following numbers:
    For Class N and Class I Shares
    Call: 1-800-635-2886
    (In Massachusetts 1-800-635-2840)
    For Class R6 Shares
    Call: 1-800-742-7272
    If you are invested in the Fund through a financial intermediary, please contact that financial intermediary if you have any questions.
    Liquidation of Assets. The Funds will depart from their stated investment objectives and policies as they liquidate holdings in preparation for the distribution of assets to investors. During this time, the Funds may hold more cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments than normal, which may prevent one or more of the Funds from meeting their stated investment objectives. Any shares of the Funds that have not been redeemed or exchanged prior to the Liquidation Date will be redeemed automatically at their net asset value per share on the Liquidation Date.
    Dated: February 14, 2022
    William Blair Funds
    150 North Riverside Plaza
    Chicago, Illinois 60606
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    A death-cross formation is imminent in days (2-3?) for Nasdaq Comp, and in weeks (2?) for Nasdaq-100/QQQ and R1000-gr/VUG. This dreadful name is when the 50-dMA crosses the 200-dMA on the downside. Other major indexes are not showing this formation.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04185122627
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p23385139800
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VUG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59404796095
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Somewhat to the side of the topic, but in the eternal debate b/w active management and rolling your own, I see that any combo of VONG half or more (2/3, 3/4) with FBND the rest, outperforms easily my recent love interests CBALX and FMSDX over 3y and 5y.
    Go, bull.
    However, if the future is anything like the recent past (I know, I know), for 1y, 6m, 3m and ytd, those two mutual funds do notably better (they are not even -4% ytd).
    Apples to pears, sort of, but I thought of interest. Just fyi.
    (Assuming my calcs are good.)
  • 50% of this fund is invested in 1 stock.
    I have a chunk of my daughter's account in BPTRX since 2003. Needless to say she thinks I am a genius, although her suggestions to buy APPL and AMZN in 2012 and 2014 have actually done better.
    We have been cutting back. I think APPL and AMZN are likely to be better long term investments than TSLA, but they are all overpriced. It hurts to have to pay taxes, even at her lower income, but it is better than a 50% loss.
  • WhassUp (This Year)?
    @carrew388: thanks for the lead on PDBC. Do you or @MarkM or @yogibearbull have an explanation for what the fund did in 2021 to generate such a massive distribution? I assume the managers trade a lot, but I wonder if trading commodities contributes to the big tax bill for holders.
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    krug today
    Seeing some people make a big deal of the decline in medium-term inflation expectations. But the more important point is the gap between 1- and 3-year expectations, showing that people don't expect inflation to persist:
    https://newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/inflexp-1
    This is really good news: inflation expectations haven't become entrenched. Suggests that the Fed may be able to restore stability without a recession ....
  • Inflation: Rip or Ripple
    "Facebook posts claim that the rising cost of goods in the United States is due to price gouging rather than inflation. But experts rejected the idea that corporations are the main culprit and said the spike in prices follows big federal spending, heightened demand, and supply problems, all of which have accompanied the pandemic."
    https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.9ZG3DG (apologies if the link does not work, go read the article)
    We can pee in each other's Cheerios all morning as to the root cause of the inflation we are experiencing, we likely won't agree. But there is no doubt it is real. The question is for how long and where to protect your investments.
    Anecdotally, my heating bill for my home in the Blue Ridge Mtns, same usage as prior year etc, ~$235 last month vs ~$145. Not a small increase. I don't have to tell you about grocery shopping or what services are costing these days.
    What concerns me the most is that from a product standpoint, my thinking is there might be a tremendous amount of "false orders", meaning I need 10k widgets but better order 15k because the lead times are extended. what happens when that unravels or there are cancelations?
    I want to see when many companies provide raises to their associates this spring...what willl that look like...what will the wage-price spiral look like?
    Wondering if we are about to get into a stagflation scenario...tough times during the late 70's early 80's. Will the precious metals protect our purchasing power...might not be a bad idea, dunno?
    WSJ article over the weekend stated we are in "unchartered waters" as we have never experienced the same scenario we are going thru now. So who knows?
    I'm thinking about the metals, also HSAFX, our ole' friend Hussy might be telling us "I told you so" by the end of the year but he likely has too much class to do that.
    Good Luck to ALL,
    Baseball Fan
  • A “Heads Up” from Sam Stovall
    "Old" Sam Stovall may be in late-60s. He used to be at S&P but then in 2016 S&P spun off its equity research unit to CFRA. His father Robert Stovall, a well-known Wall Street analyst, passed away in 2020.
    Son/Sam Stovall https://www.linkedin.com/in/sam-stovall-34153988#:~:text=Sam is the author of,flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook.
    Father/Robert Stovall https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/nytimes/name/robert-stovall-obituary?id=12891994