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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M* Methodology
    "Historically" VWINX has held close to 40% equities (did I say that :-)). It's a traditional 40/60 fund. Its extra equity all but guarantees a better longer term performance than a fund that's closer to 30/70.
    (Though according to M*, AOK is actually closer to 30/60, meaning it has more cash dragging its performance down even further. M* says that 5% of the fund is in BISXX alone. You won't see this in the AOK holdings unless you dig for it. For example, 58% of AOK is in IUSB and 9% of IUSB is in BISXX. That would seem to account for the bulk of BISXX - but not all of the cash - in AOK.)
    AOK current allocation: 30/61 (with 1% "not classified")
    VWINX current allocation: 38/57 (with 2% "not classified")
    Figures are from M*, "current" means most recent portfolio reported to M*.
  • M* Methodology
    near the 30% low end of the 30-50% category
    "near" is good. It allows for fuzziness and the possibility of bouncing around the figure in a way that "on" 30% and "holding" 30% don't.
    holds 30% equity
    sitting on the lowest edge of 30-50% category
    The iShares AOK website shows the benchmark index is S&P Target Risk Conservative Index. This Index construction shows a 30% equity allocation (2020 prospectus p. S-2)
    Quoting from that section of the prospectus:
    As of July 31, 2020, the Underlying Index included a fixed allocation of 30% of its assets in Underlying Funds that invest primarily in equity securities and 70% of its assets in Underlying Funds that invest primarily in bonds. As of July 31, 2020, the Fund invested approximately 32.27% of its assets in Underlying Funds that invest primarily in equity securities, 66.98% of its assets in Underlying Funds that invest primarily in bonds and the remainder of its assets in Underlying Funds that invest primarily in money market instruments.
    Actually that isn't quite correct with respect to the index holdings. The Underlying Index did not have a fixed allocation of 30% of its assets in ... equity securities as of July 31, 2020
    As with anything else, if you want an authoritative definition, go to the source. According to S&P, the index had a 30% allocation in equities as of April 30, 2020. It rebalances only semiannually, at the end of April and at the end of October.
    Equities tend to outperform bonds. So between semi-annual rebalancing dates, statistically equities will be above the target allocation (and bonds below) on more dates than the opposite. Of course that wasn't true during the GFC, hence the low equity numbers for 2009-2010. Since then (a lot more years), equities have outperformed.
    Regarding the annual statements - it would help if you would provide links to validate your figures. As it turns out, your "equity" figures in the early years are off because you didn't count real estate securities. For example, in the 2009 annual statement, instead of looking at the Management's Discussions section (p. 3) you could look at the actual details of the holdings in the Schedule of Investments for the fund (p. 16).
    That shows iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Major Index Fund grouped under Domestic Equity (17.86%). Add in the International Equity holdings (5.81%), and one gets 24% equity. Still a far cry from 30%, but enough to illustrate why all figures are subject to verification.
    (M* also considers real estate to be equity; it says that VGSIX is virtually 100% U.S. equity.)
    Look at 2018. While M* may say that only 28% of the fund was in equity that year, the SEC filings tell a different story. The 2018 Annual Report says that equities amounted to 30% of the fund as of July 31. And the Semiannual Report says that equities came to 32% of the fund.
    As I've explained above, the first year or so of this fund are outliers because bonds outperformed the equity market. (Also the fund was tinkering with its allocations as evidenced by the fact that it invested in real estate back then.) Likewise, you have implicitly labeled these years as outliers. Whether it's because they're not "near" 30% equity or they're not "on" the 30% edge, they're outside of your normal historical range.
    Finally, as to the point that funds that bop around a boundary between categories could show up in a different category from what you're expecting: sure, I explained that in my first response. That goes for global vs. domestic, value vs. blend, etc. One can even use this to one's advantage as I illustrated in another thread. In looking for value funds near the value/blend boundary, one might search for value funds with a current blend portfolio style and for blend funds with a current value portfolio style. This doesn't catch all funds, but it's a good start.
  • MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics
    Absolutely delightful and informative morning session with Lynn and friends!
    As promised, here is link to chart deck. Will post video shortly.
    Afternoon overview session starts in abut 30 minutes. Can still register here.
  • M* Methodology

    M* Historical stock style for AOK shows:
    2020 30% equity allocation
    2019 30%
    2018 27%
    2017 28%
    2016 29%
    More samples:
    2015 31% Form N-CSR p.7 SEC filing
    2013 30% Form N-CSR p.4
    2010 22% Form N-CSR p.3
    2009 21% Form N-CSR p.3
    AOK clearly sits historically near the 30% low end of the 30-50% category.
    The iShares AOK website shows the benchmark index is S&P Target Risk Conservative Index. This Index construction shows a 30% equity allocation (2020 prospectus p. S-2). M* places it in the 30-50% category. Takeaway: keep your eye out for funds historically near the category weighting limits as it might still be within your risk tolerance and more importantly possibly could provide good performance metrics you are seeking.
  • The portfolio: risk, cheap money/margins, Robinhood'ers, government
    Low Interest Rates are here to Stay (thru 2021):
    Some Quotes from the article (linked):
    The economy is poised for a robust recovery in 2021, particularly in the latter half, but Bloomberg Economics does not expect quantitative easing to be scaled back until 2022, leaving interest rate liftoff closer to 2025.
    How Central banks are planning for the year ahead:
    ultra-low-interest-rates-here-to-stay-2021-central-bank-guide
  • But there's no inflation...
    Pretty good reminder of what we have forgotten:
    inflation-truthers

  • Energy Remains the Most Undervalued Sector -- M*
    Per their crystal ball....
    We expect a nearly complete recovery in crude demand as the pandemic subsides in 2021.
    Energy remains the most undervalued sector, trading at a 22% discount compared with a 6% premium for the overall market.
    higher prices are necessary. And if firms are unwilling to invest enough capital at midcycle prices ($55/bbl West Texas Intermediate, $60 Brent), we wouldn't rule out prices temporarily rising even higher.
    https://morningstar.com/articles/1016129/energy-remains-the-most-undervalued-sector
  • The portfolio: risk, cheap money/margins, Robinhood'ers, government
    Cheap money and those investing on margin..... I don't have any data about how much hot money is in the market place; using margin or otherwise.
    "Margin debt—the amount of money borrowed against stockholdings to play the market—hit a record $722 billion in November, its first record high in two years. That sounds scary. But margin debt often hits record highs as the stock market rises, making it a notoriously bad timing tool. What’s more, margin debt as a percentage of the overall value of the market is now near a 15-year low, which suggests that investors aren’t overextended just yet. What has changed is the pace at which investors are adding to their debt. It’s up about 50% from its spring low, and that kind of surge has happened only six times since 1960."
    From a Barron's article last week.
    I was able to read this without a subscription. Link
  • TRP Special Meeting, via "zoom" or some such
    https://www.proxy-direct.com/MeetingDocuments/31551/Spectrum Proxy_OK.pdf
    T. Rowe Price Spectrum Diversified Equity Fund
    T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income Fund
    T. Rowe Price Spectrum International Equity Fund
    "...The purpose of the Shareholder Meeting is for Fund shareholders to vote on a proposal that was approved by the Funds’ Board of Directors to amend and restate each Fund’s investment management agreement. The purpose of the proposal is to change each Fund’s overall expense structure. Under the proposal, the amended and restated investment management agreement would provide for the payment of an “all-inclusive” management fee by each Fund and the elimination of the pass-through of operating expenses to the underlying funds in which the Fund invests. The Board of Directors of the Funds recommends that you vote in favor of the proposal with respect to your Fund. If the proposal is approved by a Fund’s shareholders, the Fund would invest in Z Classes of its underlying funds, which is anticipated to result in lower total expense ratios at the time of the expense restructure. The change to the expense structure would also accommodate the future addition of a new share class for the Funds—the I Class—which is designed for institutional and other larger investors and has lower overall shareholder servicing costs than the Funds’ Investor Class. The addition of the I Class could attract larger and more diverse investors to help the Funds further grow in the future...."
    I understand the WORDS, but what does it MEAN? (I own RPSIX. )
  • M* Methodology
    The fact that AOK has dipped as low as 27% does not mean that historically its equity allocation has been under 30%. You seem to be conflating single moments in time with "historical" positions.
    What does "historical" mean anyway? "the last 5 years" is a minority of the lifetime of this fund that's been around since 2008.
    I have reclassified on my watch list as 15-30%.
    It's currently at 31.75% equity (as of Dec 31), and rose as high as 32.5% equity as of July 31, according to its most recent annual statement.
    There are always going to be problems running screens with "hard filters". I've posted on more than one occasion that IMHO it makes little sense to screen for funds that have never had a losing year. Which would you prefer: a fund that lost 0.1% in one year and made 10% or better in all its other years, or a fund that made 3% year in, year out? That's an example of a problem with any hard filter.
    As far as AOK goes, according to Lipper there are only a total of 10 ETFs including both
    "Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Moderate" and "Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Conservative" categories. So it's no big deal to watch all these funds.
    http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/us/screener/screener.asp
  • M* Methodology
    The obvious problem being that there are funds that sit on 30% equity historically. Basic only allows a hard filter for either 30-50 or 15-30 screens. An investor searching for 15-30% equity may find a suitable fund sitting on the lowest edge of 30-50% category that gets screened out in basic. AOK is an example. In the last 5 years they dipped as low as 27% equity but classified today as 30-50% by M*. I have reclassified on my watch list as 15-30%. AOK is a good fund IMO. Seems to me this would affect the funds performance reputation as M* is quoted often. There is no perfect world, just worth noting. I am sure also applies to 50-70%. I will pay more attention going forward.
  • M* Methodology
    There's hysteresis built into the classification system. That is, if a fund has been holding 25% equity and moves to 35% equity, M* does not immediately change its category. It waits (three years or more) to see how permanent and how significant the change is.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/306244/why-is-my-funds-style-box-different-from-its-categ
    (This talks about style drift but it could just as easily been talking about a fund changing stock/bond allocations as changing large cap/small cap allocations.)
    The point here is that one can't look at an average over time and determine how the fund is classified. The classification is "path dependent" - it depends on how it got there. A fund that hit 30% from 25% and stuck there would likely remain in its 15% to 30% category, while a fund that hit 30% from 35% and stuck there would likely remain in its 30% to 50% category.
    If the fund is bouncing back and forth between a tad under and a tad over 30%, there would be no reason to change its category. Even if those oscillations miraculously averaged exactly 30% equity.
  • M* Methodology
    They introduced new Balanced Fund categories a few years ago. You can find the above under
    Allocation Funds - 15 to 30% Equity
    Allocation Funds - 30% to 50% Equity
  • M* Methodology
    What category is assigned to a balanced fund that holds 30% equity historically? 15-30% or 30-50%?
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    Mutual Fund Ranked by Market Cap
    DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap / 954
    Morgan Stanley Inst EMkts Sm C / 1,021
    Ashmore Emerging Markets Sm Cp / 1,294
    Victory Sophus Emerging Market / 1,376
    RBC Emerging Markets Small Cap / 1,385
    Silk Invest New Horizons Front / 1,527
    AMG TimesSquare Emerging Mkts / 1,586
    Virtus KAR Emerging Markets Sm / 1,738
    Victory Trivalent Emerging Mkt / 1,774
    Templeton Emerging Markets Sma / 1,827
    ETFs such as EWX in this case may be better for pure emerging market small exposure, although I think purity is overrated.
  • The portfolio: risk, cheap money/margins, Robinhood'ers, government
    No where to run to, nowhere to hide, eh?
    Risk.....
    One could write a small book about the state of investments today. Money market funds are backwards/dead monies, except for short term parking, pending other choices. Too many equity sectors are hot and interest rates/yields have trended up in recent months.
    We don't re-balance our portfolio based upon end of year or other time frames. The markets help establish any changes.
    We're at 45% equity and 55% bonds at this time. Yes, we could have found investment glory changing some investments at the being of April, 2020. But, we stayed firm throughout the year. Everyone has there own assessment of risk. There are 1,000's of combo portfolios among those at this forum. I won't agree with some of the choices, as well as many would not agree with our choices. Tis the nature of the investment beast.
    Cheap money and those investing on margin..... I don't have any data about how much hot money is in the market place; using margin or otherwise. Reportedly, there are about 13 million Robinhood accounts in the U.S. I don't know how much money these accounts are managing. More to this point is that I will presume much of this money is narrowly targeted to narrow sectors or stocks within those sectors. Twitter feeds have likely pushed a lot of this money in the past year. I don't imagine many of these folks are reading the WSJ or similar publications.
    Lastly, is that we generally have little concern for investing choices based upon elections or politicians. The machinations of Congress and the government in general move along with their compromises and decisions. Many of these actions have slow moving parts that may cause some changes in a longer term investing environments.
    However, some of our investment considerations going forward as of January 4 find a new set of circumstances that are beyond the normal, at this time; and just when we thought that Covid was the primary game changer. The Georgia Senate election and what FORM of government will find it's place in the next two weeks weighs upon investments changes at this time.
    Wishing all of you well; for a variety of reasons.
    Catch
  • Stimulus checks
    @msf : Did you read all 5,593 pages ? !!
    Stay Safe, Derf
  • But there's no inflation...
    everything costco is excellent, almost; wish I had put a hundred thou into the stock long ago, $10k to $5M since 1982, criminy, and yes there are better, but still
  • Stimulus checks
    According to the statute (see p. 1966 out of 5593!), this 2021 "stimulus" check is an advance of a tax credit on your 2020 return - same as the last check.
    You can't file your 2020 tax return before January 27th, which is why I think the IRS is saying that it will get all payments sent by mid January. Your tax software will have to be updated because it doesn't currently include code or worksheets to handle the second payment.
  • Emerging Markets Small Cap
    While not small cap, I encourage you to take a look at FSEAX which is exclusively focused on Asia and has top 10% returns for the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 year time frames for both Asia Ex-Japan and also emerging markets overall. It is the most consistent fund with strong returns that I have found in EM over the long term. Also held up well in the March downturn. Available at Schwab