I think it is worthwhile ensuring that in the event of a substantial bear market with drops like 2008 and a duration like 1930's you have enough cash to avoid selling at the bottom.
It is possible that it will take five or more years for losses to recover, even after a modest bear market.
QQQ didn't hit it 2000 peak until 2015. DJIA lost 40% in the 1930's, was up only 5% in the 1970's and many of us can remember the loss of 10% in the 2001-2010.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-performed-over-the-last-100-years-51620421855?mod=past_editions
Having just entered retirement without a pension, I can ill afford to loose 30% of my savings nor wait ten years for it to come back.
To answer your question, if there is a substantial drop, I might DCA back in to about 50% of where I was at the start but little more.

I surely have better use of my time and not wasting electrons that are about to travel the communications path from my house to the MFO server. However, the thread is almost a SNL pre-write skit unto itself.
I've not more time to provide right now, as I am establishing the needed trajectory web sites so that I am able to track, in real time; the fully accurate path of the incoming Chinese rocket remains this evening. Of some benefit, is that the arrive time; if the path is over Michigan, is that the night sky will be able to provide a visual observation of the debris. The longest side of our house is 91 feet, so I have this reference for the size of the debris. The current problem is that if I have an inbound visual in the night sky, what is the exact path and at 18,000 mph, would I be able to relocate with sufficient speed to avoid the impact.
Although we use a very stable and fast broadband connection, I remain concerned about the "ping" time involved with tracing sites I will be using.
Definition: Ping amounts of 100 ms and below are average for most broadband connections. In gaming, any amounts below a ping of 20 ms are considered exceptional and “low ping,” amounts between 50 ms and 100 ms range from very good to average, while a ping of 150 ms or more is less desirable and deemed “high ping.”Jan 29, 2020
So, I have to find a math calculation site that will allow me to determine how to enter a visual siting distance in miles, using 18,000 mph for speed and whether ping time will affect my ability to get the hell out of the way of impact at my community or street address.
Note: Hopefully, there will not be a "Breaking News" scroll during SNL.
May the force or any force you choose, be with you.
Where's Scotty when I really need him for the beam up and away??? :):):)
Thank you for your time. I do believe I need another cup of coffee on this cold spring morning in Michigan.
Catch

@JohnN - It’s all tied to SNL tonight.
“The cryptocurrency dogecoin, one of Musk's favorite market playthings, has been trading higher in anticipation of the SNL appearance.” STORY
Depends. Do you have good low latency broadband and TV reception? Are you fast on a keyboard or with a mouse? The Dogecoin market is keying on Elon Musk’s appearance on SNL tonight (Saturday). Also make sure your TV provider is low latency. Anything could happen. And you’ll be gaming with some of the smartest and best equipped gamblers as Musk either: (A) addresses / promotes Dogecoin, (B) performs a comedy skit related to Dogecoin, or (C) fails to address Dogecoin at all.
Choice C would probably be bearish for the crypto. I’d sell. Choice B Is the trickiest, as the humor might run in either direction. And humor is always hard to judge or interpret. Your best bet is choice A - an all out endorsement (Buy!). But I’m thinking that’s unlikely as it might land him in hot water with the SEC.
If not certain whether your keyboarding skills and equipment are up to snuff on all of this, consider selling your investment around 11:28 PM (Eastern Daylight Savings Time) - just seconds before the show airs. If you’ve ever tried betting during a sporting event telecast on “live” TV, you know the importance of low latency (real time viewing). A lot of events experience a time delay due to the time it takes the signal to make its way through the infrastructure to you. (Worst are the satellite providers like DirecTV.) Imagine betting during a fast-paced basketball game when what you’re viewing on-screen actually occurred 30 seconds earlier. A team might score 8 or 10 points during that time and you’d be oblivious to it when submitting a bet.
Ironically, Musk’s Starlink internet is known for having very low latency due to the satellites being so close to Earth. So users of his broadband network might actually have an edge in this case. LINK
Good luck. (Please don’t bet the ranch.)

I'm 71yo and have my Scheißfest plan all set. The plan is to do almost nothing.
My AA is almost 70% equities, all in mutual funds and ETFs. I keep 5 years of expenses in my credit union savings account. I am a low spender.
March 2020, I sold some ETFs in my taxable account where I could TLH. Anything that had gains, stayed. Within a few weeks, all that loose money was invested in new ETFs. So I'm fiddling with my taxes.
Since I likely won't need the money in my investment accounts, it doesn't matter what they do in the near term. I'm able to weather the storm, it seems. In March 2020, the value of my portfolio went down by more than my house is assessed, and I shrugged and did something else. This was part of my written plan. In late 2019, after a great year, I restated what do when the Scheiß hit the fan. Didn't know I would have to implement it so soon.

I will stand pat, but in that case would hope to add a single stock, maybe two. I have my old favorites, but am also monitoring a new watch-list of stocks with already-low share prices and which would become bargain basement deals. My penchant for Canadian banks is a thing I've mentioned here often. Those "others" include:
AQN
IQEPF
BDRBF*
PBR
BBVA*
ENIC*
*favorites on this list.
Hopefully my own free cash stash will have grown enough to be useful, by the time a correction or a bear shows up.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/06/fed-warns-of-possible-significant-declines-in-stocks-as-valuations-climb.html

Question: What will you do if the market pulls back by over 20% slowly, suddenly or a combo of?
Which funds will you sell, buy, keep for the long run etc? I saw some of my cohorts have that deer in the headlights, forlorn look during last March's market Scheisse fest. Or are you already sitting mostly on the sidelines already? I do remember some on this board like Mr Rono and others were stepping in and buying in steps which depending on how much and at what level was very likely an excellent move looking back at it.
I'm heavy in PMEFX Penn Mutual 1847 Income. Fund mgr's have pulled back on their equity holdings and have stated they would step in with purchases if there is a market dislocation. They are former fund mgr's of BERIX Berwyn Income and over the time period there have shown the ability and willingness to do so. Kind of comfortable with FEVAX First Eagle US Value as well. Both those I would be buying...I think...maybe...
I'm starting to formulate my strat of what stonks I would buy in a downdraft of 20-25-30% and will be placing limit orders for the HD's, JNJ's, BRK-B's, ACNs, CLs at those lower levels...
Like they say...the time to buy an umbrella is when it is sunny out, no?
Good Health and Good Luck to all,
Baseball Fan

Watched this years annual meeting start to finish. It was a really interesting Q & A and not because of the news about ESG and the Funds like Blackrock trying to exert influence on Berkshire to address environmental reporting concerns. Although, Munger had some pretty succinct and pithy responses to those questions.
What struck me was how smart both Buffett and Munger are compared to the future leaders of Abel and Jain. One terrific example which struck me was the moderators question on whether BH would insure Elon and Space X trip to Mars. The immediate response from Jain was no- he’d pass. Buffett quickly followed up on Jains misstep by saying... it depends on how much the premium was and whether Musk was on the rocket. <— Just great instincts from a sage value investor- it depends on the price. Turns out, other viewers noticed the same: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-on-price-versus-value-morning-brief-095654774.html
That’s not to say that I’m not long on Berkshire or in the least bit concerned about the future leadership - I just appreciated the dichotomy between their experience.
View the Annual Meeting in its entirety: https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream/

NYT Obit:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/business/david-swensen-dead.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Obituaries

Fortunately, not, although earning 3.88% on my money market funds would be a blast from the past! Of course, if I was batting .988, I would be typing this message from my 50 million dollar yacht parked at a harbor in St. Barts !

@carew388: are you batting .388 on your stock and fund picks?
I can see playing the materials/natural resources sector by using one of my old favorites, FIW. It’s performance has been outstanding for the past 5 years and it does not have the volatility of other natural resources such as fossil fuels or lumber. It holds some great growth companies like Danaher and Ecolab and is light on international holdings. I think water is likely to be inflation-proof or even a beneficiary of rising rates.

Crazy ...keep gambling or keep day job
Dogecoin up 12,000% since January — here’s how much money you’d have if you invested $1,000 at the beginning of 2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/how-much-a-1000-dollar-investment-in-dogecoin-is-worth.html

Interesting discussions and part of the topic of my next article on MFO. It is about a tactical approach to a portion of a portfolio. The bulk of my investments are in buy and hold mixed asset funds, and I am setting aside a portion for tactical funds which still focuses on lower risk funds. For inflation. I bought the Vanguard commodity fund VCMDX and EAPCX, and the Fidelity real return fund FSRRX, and inflation protected bonds.
I am watching natural resource fund GUNR, and agriculture commodity fund DBA. Another idea is infrastructure fund NFRA. I also own gold equity stock. I have real estate funds, and they tanked with the threat of higher rates. Caution is justified.
Stocks do better than bonds with inflation, but valuations fall, and with valuations so high, I am looking more to value and international funds.
There are some great ideas in this discussion and I will check them out. I am considering setting tactical allocations at 25% of the portfolio, but not necessarily inflation hedges. High debt and aging demographics are deflationary. I expect increasing inflation in the short run, but will limit exposure to commodities.
Thanks for the ideas.

I Bonds are a great "safe" bond option in the current environment.
The $10k annual purchase limit* may be a hindrance for those with larger portfolios.
*additional $5k purchase available using your federal income tax refund

Quick note:
iBonds issued between May 1st and thru Oct of this year pay a combined rate (fixed and inflation) of 3.54%
Exempt from state income tax, $10k annual purchase limit
Probably a decent place to hedge inflation and earn a higher interest rate than in a money market, tbill, and likely most bond funds(?)
Best,
Baseball Fan

Yellen’s comment must have served to strengthen the Dollar on the currency exchanges, Most everything I own tied to non-dollar assets took a hit. Just by way of example: Miners lost 1.15% across the board. OPGSX, PRELX and RPGAX among my worst performers.
Yellen has also received some derision among the financial pundits. Quoth one: “Talk is cheap.”

I have been on the sidelines 90% or more for 51 weeks now, alas, alas, but on a recent dip just stuck 20% into VONV, fwiw

I too like INFL. While it has a chunk of energy ( 20%) and gold, the other thesis is to concentrate on companies that have less exposure to rising prices of their input materials, but are "asset lite" figuring they will not be forced to raise prices as their input prices rise.
One of the reasons for INFL's performance thus far is it's biggest position, Texas Pacific Land, which is up 120% YTD. TPL is the largest landowner in Texas, owning mostly arid oil and gas land in West Texas and fracking resources.
It restructured as C-corporation in January, from a Trust, which may account for some of the rise in the stock price, as there is now no K-1. Horizon Kinetics who runs INFL has a long discussion about this and the trust on their web page. They are very bullish ( some of their funds are 50% TPL) and although TPL is into fracking and oil, it is even in several ESG funds.
I don't own a lot but wish I had bought more.

Consider INFL ETF. It seems to follow a similar track to PRAFX, but since inception 1/11/21 to 5/3 it has come out ahead, INFL up 17.38%, to PRAFX up 13.34%.

@hank : You said, " On a sharp equity selloff, I’d probably cut that back a couple %." With -1 on the short side of equity that should be a positive. Presuming the shorts & longs cancel out .
Just wondering, Derf

@Derf - Inquiring minds like to wonder … You are correct that the fund is pretty much neutral as far as equity exposure goes. The NASDAQ got whacked today. I’ll guess that’s mainly what the fund is shorting. So don’t be surprised to see it gain a bit today.
What I meant was that if equities sold off sharply, I’d sell a couple percent of TMSRX and buy something more invested in equities - maybe add to PRSIX which has an ER about half of what TMSRX charges. TMSRX is 1 of 3 funds in my alternative camp. Combined they amount to 32% of holdings. Maybe drop it to 30%. We’re not taking about BIG moves here.
-

Lately, I notice that PRSNX has grown a small "short" position that wasn't there, before. (Morningstar's X-Ray.) Falling dollar, I suspect, is what's going on, in that case.

@Crash - Here’s the Lipper breakdown on PRSNX
-13% Cash
111% Bonds
2% Other
0% Stocks
Total Net Assets $1.50B
Total Stock Holdings 1
Total Bond Holdings 560
% Foreign Stocks 0%
Portfolio Turnover Rate 144%
It’s not at all unusual for bond funds to hold short positions. Sometimes they’ll short the 30 year Treasury Bond. By doing so, they hedge losses in their shorter duration bonds when rates tick upward. Pretty sure DODIX has done that in the past. However, the short on a 30 year bond would only amount to a few percent.