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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    @msf, you are right, TSCXX would be levitating at .25% but I I don't believe it. I took a quick look on Yahoo and it shows the 7 day yield at 0.1% like most other MMs. Clerical or updating error maybe(?)
  • Commentary: China has already peaked and faces economic stagnation
    The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that China has yet to break through the material science that goes into the latest microscopic chips, despite throwing money at the challenge of successive programs, the latest commanding over $ 20 billion of dollars. Its high-end chip industry is ten years behind, but in ten years the infrastructure for global cyber dominance will already be in place.In short, the United States controls the global semiconductor ecosystem, working closely with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. All Washington had to do at the end of May was to move their fingers and TCMS of Taiwan instantly cut the chips to Huawei, suddenly condemning the company’s global G5 quest.
    Britain cannot stay with Huawei even if it wants to. US Congress Won’t Authorize Branch of Chinese State – Serving Xi’s Doctrine civil-military merger – acquire global control over a key technological break point.
    China is already in Germany...Any telecommunications group aiming to pursue Huawei’s G5 plans in these circumstances commits financial suicide. Deutsche Telekom internal documents speak of “Armageddon” if the German firm is forced to replace 3 billion euros of Huawei equipment already installed. Armageddon is what they are going to get.
    https://fr24news.com/a/2020/07/china-has-already-peaked-and-faces-economic-stagnation.html
  • Equity Diversifiers
    "As noted above, the Treasury indexes were the best equity diversifiers among various bond-fund types. But while there's the widespread perception that long-term Treasuries are the most attractive diversifiers, the recent data don't bear this out. In fact, the shorter-term Treasury index had an even lower correlation with the S&P 500 than the long-term index."
    "Funds in the intermediate-term core bond and intermediate-term core-plus bond Morningstar Categories have also been less beneficial as diversifiers than Treasuries. Both groups exhibited a higher correlation with equities in the most recent data run than they did at this time a year ago. They also exhibited a substantially higher correlation with equities than did the Treasury indexes or the Aggregate Index."
    "It's also worth noting that the attractiveness of cash as a diversifier has risen a bit since my last data run. That's likely because the first quarter featured an extreme flight to safety and liquidity, burnishing cash's appeal. Meanwhile, municipal bonds' diversification ability appears to have waned a bit, thanks to munis' rough showing in the first quarter, when pandemic-related worries over municipal finances roiled the muni market."

    Article
    1 Year Correlation Data
    3 Year Correlation Data
    5 Year Correlation Data
    10 Year Correlation Data
    15 Year Correlation Data
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    I don't bother with the name because I never call TRP. All my funds have been in the last 20 years at Fidelity + Schwab. The only TRP fund I have ever held was PRWCX, which is one of the best allocation funds for many years.
    I keep a very simple system with credit cards.
    Penfed for any gas at the pump = 5% cash back. I used this card abroad too with no fees.
    Everything else Fidelity 2% cash back. I don't want/need more cards with more complication and calculation
    Wait, Amazon has a 5% back so I opened an account last year but the card is not in my wallet. I buy more every year.
    When abroad I use Schwab ATM for cash. Schwab pays for all fees globally and why I only take out small amounts several times.
  • Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    @MikeM - thanks for reminding me. Recently I noticed this discrepancy at Fidelity, that you had to dig for the really current yields. I only noticed it by accident.
    Fidelity's propensity for quoting old rates means that you have to be careful when comparing with MMFs at other companies.
    You'll find Vanguard MMFs (and its other funds) here. The SEC yield column is current to the last close.
    Here are T. Rowe Price's MMFs. The 7 day (SEC) yield columns are likewise current. I've been trying to figure out how TSCXX is levitating (0.25% SEC yield, with no fee waiver).
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    Why own T-bills when one can own no-penalty CDs, similar maturity, 1% APY, federally insured, fully liquid, and guaranteed not to lose value unlike a T-bill or a corporate bond?
    Longer term bonds are another matter. Though as pointed out in the article, T-Notes aren't yielding that much either: "0.74% on June 17th for 10-Year Treasury Notes"
    Nice piece. I appreciate his pointing out that
    when isolating the US Long-Term Government returns to simple price performance in periods of crisis, the insurance provided by treasuries only pays out a bit over 50% of the time. In the aggregate, due to a few larger negative periods of treasury performance overlapping with sharp stock market drawdowns, the overall Crisis Alpha of treasuries is negative! What type of insurance policy makes holders pay nearly half the time when they most need it!?!
    I would have expected something similar but not quite the same, that is: while still far from certain, a higher probability of long term Treasuries paying off. Though the negative alpha is not surprising since these can lose big if they don't hold up. I'll have to look more closely at the figures.
  • New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    John Rekenthaler (M*), The Department of Labor Attempts to Throttle ESG Investing
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/990580/the-department-of-labor-attempts-to-throttle-esg-investing
    Would [an ESG fund] be legally protected if it removes all suggestions of making the world cleaner, or improving community relationships, and instead couches its ESG policies as being adopted solely from self-interest, so that it can outperform its competitors over the long term by owning companies that are more sustainable?
  • New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    El Gran Jefe's boys at the DOL don't want funds in your 401k plan excluding oil companies from their portfolios or supporting climate change disclosure or labor-related shareholder proposals:
    https://investmentnews.com/dol-esg-401ks-difficult-undo-194467
    https://barrons.com/articles/new-labor-department-guidance-takes-aim-at-esg-investing-51593018560
  • Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    “The average money market fund is now offering dividends of about 0.09%.”
    That doesn’t sound right. I don’t invest in money market funds, so have no idea what the better ones return. I just checked my cash substitute, TRBUX. At the end of June Fidelity is showing a 30-day yield of 2.31% with an average weighted maturity of only 1.3 years and a duration of just 1 year. YTD it’s up about 2% - but provided a wild ride during the March / April period.
    TRBUX
  • The coronavirus has given investors a ‘once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,’ says hedge-fund billionaire
    Hi Sir Old_Skeet, you are exactly right.
    In my experiences, the first 100K 'balance' in our portfolio is so hard to get with all the market gains/401K div-redisbributions. The 2nd, 3rd 100K gained are easier than the first 100K [after 5-7 yrs or so].... So are the subsequent gained monies. You may have same feelings once reaching 1M [then 2M].. We did have a great bull run since 2009 when I first started investion. Think the rules for 7.5 years for doubling your total assets work well here [unless we have a massive recession/depression - contractions which we are facing right now]
    Couch potatoes and picking mutual funds that you like work well too if you have no time to fiddle around. Hard to time the market these days; we have to trust the managers that we hired to run our Mutual Funds or ETFs. Although stocks may appear cheap still these days. We may have Dows @ 35K by next few years - [12 months]; we did have NASDAQ at records highs recently [yesterday]
    fwiw
    regards
  • We're Forecasting a Strong Long-Run Economic Recovery
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/989371/were-forecasting-a-strong-long-run-economic-recovery
    We're Forecasting a Strong Long-Run Economic Recovery
    We don't think the market's engaging in irrational exuberance.
    Preston Caldwell
    Jun 30, 2020
    The Morningstar US Market Index has come thundering back since its late March nadir and is now down merely 7% year to date, even as the coronavirus pandemic persists. While many investors are wondering if the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance, we think the rebound has been broadly warranted, as we forecast a strong long-run recovery in the U.S. economy. We expect U.S. GDP to drop 5.1% in 2020 but surge back in 2021 and experience further catch-up growth in following years. By 2024, we think U.S. GDP will recover to just 1% below our expectations before the pandemic.
  • Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    Stocks can always drop 40%. Surprise. Surprise.
    Hell, they fell something like 25% one afternoon while I was driving home from work. (‘87 maybe?).
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    The whole rotating-discount/cash-back thing is a turnoff to me. Every quarter or month you need to remember which card to use to maximize which benefits ... too much work! I stick w/my Amex Plat and Amazon Prime Visa and keep things simple so I can worry about other more important things. :)
    Hi sir MSF...BOA credit probably one if best credit card around, give 5_10% off on certain places frequently use (this quater starbuck dumkin donuts and LaMadelin)...also 3% cash bsck gas restaurants and 2% everything else. We like our merrilllynch advisor know him for many yrs charges 1% annually and only minimal in managed acct
    Yep - To each his own. 25-30 years ago I ran into debt & spending issues related to credit cards. Going to 100% cash (except where credit is absolutely necessary) really helped turn things around. That was than. This is now. Today, I still have the same “dirty” $100 in my wallet it held in early March, as credit is safer to handle in light of Covid-19.
    To the ongoing discussion here, what I demand of my one credit card is: friendly 24-hour service, reps who speak English and are easy to access, honest dealing, no sales pressure or product promotions. My company (Elan) throws in a few hundred dollars a year as some kind of bonus. That’s nice, but not the reason I chose them. Now, just think of all the investment research and strategic decision making you might be doing with the time otherwise allotted to deciding which cc to use this week or next? An investment in knowledge always pays the best dividend.
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    The whole rotating-discount/cash-back thing is a turnoff to me. Every quarter or month you need to remember which card to use to maximize which benefits ... too much work! I stick w/my Amex Plat and Amazon Prime Visa and keep things simple so I can worry about other more important things. :)
    I obviously wasn't clear. I did write: "on the category of your choice". No rotating categories (though you can change it yourself). It appears that John is using "gas" as his chosen category (that's the default). I use online purchases.
    John wrote that he is using Merrill as a brokerage. Assuming that he has at least $20K in that account, he should be getting 3.75% (or better) back with BofA's preferred rewards.
    With other rebates, I believe he was referring to special one-off promotions. These are not rotating categories, but rather one-time or limited promotions for individual stores. For example, I can get 5% in addition to the usual cash back for purchases at Starbucks up to $30. The nice thing about this particular promotion is that I can load $30 on my Starbucks card now and get that extra $1.50 back. I don't have to remember it at all.
    The BofA travel card gives a flat 1.5% back. After you multiply it by the preferred rewards bonus, it can be as much as a flat 2.625%. No rotating categories.
    There is a gotcha with this card which I tried to explain tersely above. Say you spend $50K/year, and that earns you $1,312.50. So long as you have charged at least that much in "travel" expenses (which is a very broad category), BofA will credit the full amount against your credit card bill.
    These days, that's the cost of a couple of round trip airline tickets. I know, who's flying?
  • Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    Has Schilling ever been right?
    06/2011(link) "New recession begins next year, Shilling says" = wrong
    02/2013 (link) "Gary Shilling: Why You Should Sell Stocks And Buy Treasurys" = way wrong
    11/2016(link) "A Trump win might be bad for stocks" = wrong
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    The whole rotating-discount/cash-back thing is a turnoff to me. Every quarter or month you need to remember which card to use to maximize which benefits ... too much work! I stick w/my Amex Plat and Amazon Prime Visa and keep things simple so I can worry about other more important things. :)
    Hi sir MSF...BOA credit probably one if best credit card around, give 5_10% off on certain places frequently use (this quater starbuck dumkin donuts and LaMadelin)...also 3% cash bsck gas restaurants and 2% everything else. We like our merrilllynch advisor know him for many yrs charges 1% annually and only minimal in managed acct
  • what do you call T. Rowe Price?
    Hi sir MSF...BOA credit probably one if best credit card around, give 5_10% off on certain places frequently use (this quater starbuck dumkin donuts and LaMadelin)...also 3% cash bsck gas restaurants and 2% everything else. We like our merrilllynch advisor know him for many yrs charges 1% annually and only minimal in managed acct