+1
(Glad you spelled force correctly. :))

Edit/Add: 1/10/22: Marko Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley - Near Term: We recommend Buy the Dip as the market is oversold and can handle higher yields. The reaction to the Fed is overdone.
Note: It's a paraphrase.

Today's session had that "Buy the Dip" crowd out in full force. To squash that mentality would require a more serious market reset.

“Cash is negative 7% due to inflation”
I haven’t heard that one before. He’s right, of course. But what also needs be assessed in valuing cash as part of an investment approach is that over shorter periods cash may represent opportunity. That value is harder to assess. Goes beyond simply looking at current inflation numbers.
Using his logic… If (1) your equity portfolio declines in nominal value by 25% over 1 year and (2) your cash level remains steady over that same year and (3) inflation advances by 7% over the year, than ISTM you end up this way on an inflation adjusted basis.
Purchasing power after 1 year:
Cash = 93% of starting value
Equity portfolio = 68% of starting value
I don’t know what the official inflation rate was between September 2007 and March 2009. But I’ll tell you cash was worth a whole lot more at the start of that 18 month stretch than equities were and maintained its purchasing power much better.

Agreed that putting too much emphasis on tax efficiency can negatively impact the PM ability to generated above avg./high returns. That was not my intent to convey.
Mr. Hwan stated his goal is to reduce turnover between 30% to 40%, among other volatility reducing measures.
In fact, I did state that I was concerned what impact these process changes will have on returns.
I too am a firm believer in TR, but very high tax consequences can have a significant impact on after-tax returns and make an otherwise excellent fund, mediocre or inefficient in a taxable account.
Unfortunately (i guess) for me, 75% of my retail investments (ex. IRA's, 401K) are in a taxable account, so I believe I have to, at least, consider tax consequences, not necessarily make decisions solely based on it, but it is one factor.
As far as ETFs, they don't serve my purpose in this area. I do not want a index tracker, I much prefer an investment that deviates from its bogie. From what I read PARWX/PFPWX has an active ratio of about 90%, not bad.
Any further thoughts, ideas, suggestions or opinion are very welcome!!!
Matt

MGGPX/MGGIX will likely show a massive bloodbath today, based on the M* reporting of its holdings' prices as of 1045ET. Many large-percentage drops at the moment.
I wonder if it's too early to pre-emptively harvest some losses for my 2022 taxes. :)

Mohamed El-Erian on CNBC this AM. Paraphrasing: He believes the Fed will adjust in "bunches" vs. a spread out rate increase to curb inflation that he thinks will be markedly higher than expected. That is what he has been warning about and the Fed is late and now has to thread the needle. Markets will fluctuate a lot. Becky (host) asked where investors should go.
El-Erian said that's the issue. Cash is negative 7% due to inflation, Bonds are no good, Stocks will just be volatile.
Edit/Add: 1/10/22: Marko Kolanovic, JPM - Higher Bond Yields should not be disruptive to S&P Index, Near Term: We recommend Buy the Dip as the market is oversold and can handle higher yields. The reaction to the Fed is overdone. Thanks for correction @BaluBalu
Note: It's a paraphrase.

@Bobpa
MGGPX - I reduced LY and added to PRGSX. Will hold remaining. Believe in it LT
MSSMX - 1/2 here and 1/2 with WAMCX - evaluating whether to continue to hold or not
ARTYX - very small position here, holding for 2022 but am in red quite a bit.
MS funds have not been performing well. MACGX (Mid Cap) has been terrible for me as well. @yogibearbull is right, it is ironic - their analysts negative outlook vs fund managers. Will see if they can adjust.
Edit/Add: 1/10/22 1PM: Paraphrase: Marko Kolanovic, JPM - Higher Bond Yields should not be disruptive to S&P Index, Near Term: We recommend Buy the Dip as the market is oversold and can handle higher yields. The reaction to the Fed is overdone. SMH

Thanks. I hope this thread can discuss investable funds in the subject space.
As an aside, I took your chart back to 10 years. XLE total return was only 20% while ICLN had nearly 10 times as much. Seems like investors have been working out the transition for a while.

Here's link to chart deck.
And here's link to video recording.
If I can help in any way, please reach back: [email protected]. Or, just post here.
c

MGGPX: reduced
BGAFX: reduced
ARTYX: sold
The first two funds had massive inflows in 2020 during run-ups; the opposite is true for 2021 when outflows are seen. The charts are ugly. ISTM that the managers will have a hard time reversing recent misfortunes because outflows are likely to continue.

+1

Growth stocks tend to lag in rising rate environment. Thus, quality stocks will do better with their lower valuation and dividend such as DIVO, SCHD and dividend growth funds. This week the value funds dominated. Same trend also observed in oversea market. Last year I exchanged part of the growth funds to several value funds, and it paid off well. Hopefully they continue to do okay in this slower growth cycle.
Majority of my bonds are now in balanced funds whom I rely on their active management skills. Think the Fed made a bad call on inflation being "transitionary" without recognizing their easy monetary policy also inflate asset price in addition to the economy. Question how fast and high will the Fed raise the rates. Back in Volcker days, the rates were in double digits.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/
FEDFUNDS
Totally agree with @Observant1 that fixed income will have a challenging year.

OAKMX and OAKLX did not beat SPY during the last 10 years, but since inception of OAKLX in 1996, it is up 1780%, whereas SPY is 936% up, and VTV (Vanguard Value) is 761%. Thus OAKLX significantly outperformed both S&P 500 and Value index since inception. I would not necessarily bet my house on its future outperformance, but I take Nygren's opinions seriously.

Observant1 said, "I wonder if the recent trend of value outperforming growth will persist?
A very good question in deed ! Value started rolling about 15-16 months ago. It also went side ways for awhile before holding up better than growth last week , maybe sooner.
Think I will start a position ,VMVAX in taxable account on Monday. I will also admitted I held VVIAX , & sold early. Pigs make money- hogs get slaughtered !
Growth maybe a bit over bought ?, Derf

Bounce in cyclical energy may continue near-term, but it may be a good idea to be ready to switch to clean-energy.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ICLN&compare=XLE&id=p72242071366

Please note ARTYX invests heavily into Developed market stocks and is at 50% now in Developed market stocks. Their theory may be that those stocks earn significant amount of their earnings from EM countries.
I invested in it a month from inception and continued until 2018. After selling the amount I invested in mid 2021, I am still left with 174% of what I initially invested.
Very high beta fund, but I have immense patience, and will use volatility to my advantage whenever it severely corrects. It also covers the LG portion Developed countries, something on the lines of VWIGX.

This will be a very challenging year for fixed income.
The Fed will end QE and probably raise short-term rates three or four times.
It now appears that the Fed will also reduce its balance sheet.
There will be increased volatility in the equity markets.
Using the S&P 500 as a proxy for the US market, the largest drawdown
was just 5.2% while the worst down day was only 2.6% in 2021.
Despite this, the S&P 500 returned over 28% last calendar year!
I don't expect this type of performance (low vol, high return) in 2022.
It wouldn't be surprising if we experienced several corrections during the year.
I wonder if the recent trend of value outperforming growth will persist?
If one believes in reversion to the mean, value is "overdue."

Derf, the large CG in 2021 was due to the significant changes Mr. Hwan made to the portfolio. 2021 was an aberration and should be a 1-time event.
Going forward I’m wondering if the fund will be more tax friendly than in the past. He states he is reducing turnover, SD and other metrics.
Obviously, his intent is to reduce volatility but at what cost (i.e. return)?
There’s a lot to like about PARWX but questions still need answers.
Any thoughts?

how does one use that information?

That's an excellent question. Regardless of the quality of the data, how does a retail investor make use of an IIV? Only an authorized participant (AP) can trade on the difference between the actual NAV (or IIV) and the ETF market price. Retail investors can only trade on the current market price.
Say that the market is rising rapidly, and in anticipation traders are bidding up an ETF's price even more quickly. So the ETF is priced at a small premium. As a retail investor interested in buying the ETF, are you going to hold off until that premium vanishes (assuming you're even looking at the IIV)? Or are you going to buy the ETF now before the price shoots up some more?
What is a possible scenario where a retail investor changes a buy/sell decision for an ETF based on its IIV? If it makes a difference, assume whatever you need about how current the IIV figure is.
ISTM that only APs care about the actual value of an ETF portfolio as opposed to what an ETF is selling for on the open market. That's so they can arbitrage the difference. For them, 15 seconds isn't good enough - they run their own internal calculations.

“We expect equity investors to perform well relative to bond investors over the next decade. We also believe that our portfolios are more attractively priced than the S&P 500.”
Hard to disagree as worded. “our portfolios” doesn’t mean the same as what you, I, or somebody else may own. And they seem to disavow the S&P. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait 10 years to see if the manager’s perceptions re his portfolio are accurate.
Note that the blurb does not differentiate among bonds, lumping all into one hopper. Well, now, there are short, intermediate and long term bonds. Corporate and sovereign. Investment grade and poorer quality. U.S. domiciled and those from other nations. And, there’s EM as well.
I think for many of us the past week is a great opportunity to compare how different asset class we held faired compared to one another. It hasn’t been too often that so many different assets suffered together (Maybe Qtr 1, 2020?).
When all is said and done, I’m glad I had exposure to bonds last week. RPGAX (30% bonds) fell 1.48% as compared to PRWCX which lost over 2.0%%. My worst performing bond fund, DODIX, fell 1.07%. In contrast, my worst performing equity holding, WPM, fell over 10%. Equity funds themselves were all over the place of course. Those heavy into banks saw gains. Similar variance existed among various alts, long shorts, etc. PRPFX surprised, losing just 1% for the week, despite exposure to gold, bonds and growth stocks.
So, if you have a 10 year or longer time horizon and can live with higher volatility, send your $$ to the folks at Oakmark. BTW - I read a lot of Dodge & Cox’s commentary. They might well have written the same blurb.