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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Illiquid securities?
    As @msf noted, intraday indicated values (IIV) may be for creation/redemption baskets. With refresh every 15 sec, how stale that data can be?
    Note that Precidian ETFs and several others are the newer active nontransparent ETFs. These have different portfolio disclosure rules than those for passive/indexed ETFs (95-96%?).
  • Illiquid securities?
    The IIV (intraday indiciative NAV) is just that, indicative, not necessarily an accurate calculation of the current NAV. First, because it is usually calculated only four times a minute, so the value can be somewhat stale. More interestingly, it may not be accurate because it is calculated on something other than the precise instantaneous holdings in the portfolio.
    It may be calculated based on yesterday's ending portfolio. That is, for example, the way Precidian Active Shares provide what they call a verified IIV (VIIV).
    [T]he custodian on behalf of the fund will share the end of day NAV portfolio (NAVP) with an independent valuation agent. Rather than publically disclosing portfolio composition, the valuation agent will calculate and disseminate a Verified Indicative Intraday Value (VIIV) at one-second intervals the following day based on the NAVP
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499655/000114420419018151/tv518160_40-appa.htm
    More customarily, the calculation, still performed by third parties, is based on daily creation baskets. The issue here is that creation baskets often do not precisely replicate what is in the portfolio.
    In certain cases (e.g., some fixed income ETFs), the creation or redemption basket might contain different combinations of securities and/or cash relative to the overall ETF portfolio
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1499655/000114420419018151/tv518160_40-appa.htm
    It gives one pause to consider that an ETF might specify baskets for creating and redeeming shares (by authorized participants) that don't match. (This can be used as a mechanism for changing the holdings of an ETF.)
    "The composition of the redemption basket typically mirrors that of the creation basket." But it doesn't have to.
    http://www.understandetfs.org/creation_redemption.html
  • Any GREEN today
    VIX was down 4.33% and closed at 18.76 today. It did not close below that level in December in the first 21 calendar days. And in 2022, it has not closed at 20 or above. Somehow the stock and bond market feels worse for everybody in 2022 than in December 2021. Is it the expectations gap / surprises in the market?
  • Illiquid securities?
    +1 msf I confused nav with market price. Thanks
  • TMSRX
    I have some reluctance to invest in multi-asset funds or some x-y-z strategic funds. I view my portfolio as a multi asset personal strategic fund in itself. My first objection is I don’t want find someone else’s strategy turning around and working cross- current to what I want. Next I want to invest in assets not ideas. I view assets as stocks, bonds, land, gold, and cash. Common stocks are bought in companies I think will make me some money. Right now it’s housing, water, and infrastructure. Bonds are more a low volitility decision rather a money making try. Intermediate government bond have a historically negative correlation with equities. Not a positive return this year for IG ,but APOIX gave a 6% return in 2021. I buy gold because it’s not stocks or bonds and because the pharaohs valued it and we hoard it at Fort Knox. Despite all the talking it down, it seems to have some staying power. I doubt bitcoin will dethrone it. Land is not REITS. A reit fund is a equity fund of companies the manager is confident will pay their rent or mortgage. And cash is spending money, some that’s for now kept in money markets, some that’s for later kept in a mutual fund I think has low volatility. There is a lot, I mean a lot, of discussion about alternative and allocation funds. All of which I read but in the end I like my way more. Mom and the nuns always called me stubborn.
    John
  • TMSRX
    I have PMEFX in my 401 at Schwab.
  • Illiquid securities?
    Thanks @carew388. I remember your experience and was wondering if mine was similar. Yes - I can understand where with TRBUX, which is supposed to be highly liquid & immediately available to deploy, that would be an issue.
    As far as GLDB goes … Fido showed the bid and offer prices when I begin to transact. So I understood the situation. ISTM I did sacrifice 10 cents per share (the bid prices were lower than the ask prices). Not much of an issue for me. Yes - I’m sure it’s lightly traded!
    PS - What’s curious is I was able to get one of the 3 buys (the middle one) to go thru at “market.” So this liquidity gig must vary from hour to hour depending on flows.
  • Illiquid securities?
    Hank Same thing happened to me with TBUX at Fido. I was able to buy it later at Schwab but the small volume bothered me, so I sold. Normally I would think etf NAV's change continually like SPY or QQQ. GLDB trades less than 2,000 shares daily, so Fido freaks out about this. I'll find out Monday about MRGR (10,000 share volume) when I put my buy order in.
  • TMSRX
    Sold TMSRX in 2021 with some small profits. I did the same thing with ACVVX QMNNX PAUAX MFLDX years ago. ADANX is on my watch list and I may reduce my holdings in that one. Once they start declining I'm gone, because I don't have confidence that these funds work in every market. There's enough funds like BAMBX CVSIX ARBOX VARAX that continue to work for me. I probably should just simplify and go with funds like VWINX AONIX EXDAX FIKFX .
  • Any GREEN today
    MikeW +1 Value this week ,growth =ouch !
  • TMSRX
    I don't have weekend Barron's yet. But I start looking for stories on Friday that may make weekend Barron's and this one is already filed under European Trader. On PC, I get online version of the weekend issue typically by Friday 9pm. That is why I am able to report my Part 1 summaries to my readers early on Saturday.
  • TMSRX
    I’m impressed if you already have your weekend Barron’s. Mine on Kindle comes in Saturdays - usually in the late morning.
    Positive stories in B do cause stocks to spike. Generally the industrial metals were hot this week. Bloomberg reported today that NGLOY - one I held for a while - was on fire today (figuratively).
    Back to TMSRX - Suspect they have some precious metals miners in the mix. Seems to me a lot of hedge fund managers like to hold a bit. Might help explain its woes this week.
    Chart TMSRX from Lipper
    image
  • 20% Equity vs 100% SPY
    +1 I missed the boat when George Gilder recommended JDS-Fitel(later JDSU) as the next Intel in a Forbes supplement I received in 1997-1998! Of course, I would have had to sell at the right time as well.
    I got caught in the JDSU web. The late Joe Battipalia referred to JDSU as "Just Don't Sell Us". I lost some money, but learned a valuable lesson.
  • TMSRX
    The fund is off 1.29% YTD. If they’re having to unload assets due to heavy redemptions it would explain part of it.
    But what an odd week it has been. Enough to throw any money manager’s barometer into dysfunction. Suddenly we’ve awakened to inflation. Really? So rates on the 10-year are almost back to where they topped-out last March. Back than there wasn’t the hysteria that seems to have accompanied this week’s bump-up in rates. The Fed speaks? Does anyone listen? You can’t invest based on what they say because they can change course on a dime if, in their words, “the current data suggests …”
    Talk about cross-currents … Industrial metals are on a tear this week. Rio Tinto (RIO) is having the best week since I bought it several months ago. But, gold - a typical inflation hedge - has seen two of its worst days in recent memory, dropping more than $35 on 2 days this week and dragging down miners. Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has experienced its worst week since I bought it several months ago. Than there’s the tornado that has ripped through the ARKK-type funds - affecting other market sectors. Maybe one of those yellow highway caution signs needs to be displayed: “Caution! Short Sellers at work”
    Sorry if this is too far off topic. But I think these are the type of questions to think about when buying or owning a “multi-asset” fund. Or, do we just buy whatever has the best 3 year track record?
  • VTSAX benchmark
    That is not what gradual changes mean. That mean that when stocks go in/out of the index, CRSP does it in a few steps over a few days (unannounced).
    Weighting of LCG vs LCV is what it is for total stock market and the index provider is not obligated to balance it. For example, here are the weighs (from M*) for DJ total stock market index that Fido FSKAX follows: LCV 16%, LCB 27%, LCG 30%.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fskax/portfolio
  • VTSAX benchmark
    CRSP indexes make gradual changes/transitions, unlike Russell indexes that make all changes on a single preannounced date
    I see that VTSAX is currently 29% LCG and 16% LCV. I assume this happened as a result of the run up in the FAANG stocks. Will "gradual changes" bring LCG and LCV more in balance?