M* Are Bond Funds 'Broken' as Diversifiers? Indexes are one thing. Ditto large, passive ETFs. Transparent. US Treasuries.
I read a Dave Nadig interview recently about bond pricing. He likens it to Zillow. Especially precarious with lightly traded assets in an open-ended vehicle that must sell to meet redemption, which we've now seen, with awful results.
Last February, there were $6T in bond funds (about $4.5T in OEFs) and I understand in March, like $250B in redemptions.
While the risks in equities are clear and present, rapid 30% fluctuations, the risks in bond funds are not ... the lack of volatility providing (for some funds) false sense of security; therefore, more shocking the surprise when a crisis happens, which makes bond investors not used to drawdown, head for the door.
I see some bond funds like icebergs now.
Doesn't help (going forward) that we have had literally 40 years of falling interest rates. Which way will rates go from here? Nowhere I expect for a while. But when rates rise and all those bond funds fall, watch out.
And, when IG bond fund holding lots of BBB need to unload after downgrades in days/weeks ahead.
And, what happens when Fed stops buying corporate bonds?
So, sure, diversifier, but certainly not without their own set of serious risks (especially pricing risk) that probably needs to get more attention, likely more regulation. Glad financial media is talking more about it.
It's a really important lesson for me and I'm still processing how to reengage and be better for it.
M* Are Bond Funds 'Broken' as Diversifiers? Hi guys, In following the markets I track a couple of Index funds. For the bond index I have it down a mere -2.2%. For the US stock index I have it down -25.2%. For the international stock index I have it down by -25.7%; and, for the real estate index I have it down -34.3%. These percent numbers are the percent off the fund's 52 week high.
From my perspective bonds are a diversifier ... and, so is cash.
M* Fund Spy: Primecap Can Ride Out Its Airline Stocks' Turbulence "The coronavirus’ economic fallout has hit investors in airline stocks especially hard, perhaps none more so than Pasadena-based Primecap Management Company. At year-end 2019, Primecap firmwide owned 14% to 16% of the shares outstanding in three different airlines and stakes in nine other air carriers. As Exhibit 1 shows, shares of each of these airlines shed between 40.7% and 76.1% during the depths of this still-unfolding bear market (Feb. 20, 2020, to March 23, 2020), versus a 33.8% drop for the S&P
500 index."
All 6 Primecap funds are exposed
S&P 500 Stocks Hanging By A Thread As Macy’s Is Booted Off https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1094700/sp-500-stocks-hanging-by-a-thread-as-macys-is-booted-off/S&P
500 Stocks Hanging By A Thread As Macy’s Is Booted Off
S&P Global Indices disclosed on April 1 that department store retail giant Macy’s (NYSE:M) “will be removed from the S&P
500 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, April 6.” The company will be moved to the S&P 600 SmallCap Index instead, and it will be replaced by Carrier Global Corp. (NYSE:CARRW), an air conditioning company being spun off of United Technologies (UTX). According to S&P Global Indices, Macy’s no longer belongs on the S&P
500 because of its low market cap and low growth expectations./
Unbelievable. One of America's great brand name would no longer be in sp
500
U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus These muni bond funds continue to be volatile. GHYAX is down 4.55% over the past week, including 0.98% yesterday.
Mona
U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/u-s-high-yield-bond-funds-see-record-inflow-of-7-09-billion/U.S. High-Yield Bond Funds See Record Inflow After Exodus
GOLDMAN SACHS GP
149.93USD+4.64+3.19%
IVZ
INVESCO LTD
8.22USD+0.21+2.62%
TDG
TRANSDIGM GROUP
284.47USD+11.93+4.38%
Investors poured a record amount of cash into U.S. high-yield funds this week as the junk-bond market recovered from its worst slump in more than a decade.
The funds added $7.09 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Refinitiv Lipper. This reversed a course that had seen almost $20 billion withdrawn from those same funds over the last six sessions, including $2 billion last week.
‘Tremendous Opportunity’
As U.S. junk bonds started to find a floor, investors including Goldman Sachs and Invesco are seeing reasons to buy.
“There are tremendous opportunities out there,” said Ashish Shah, co-chief investment officer of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He estimates junk bonds will return about 20% this year as growth rebounds in the fourth quarter and fallen angels outperform.
High-yield lost 11.
5% last month and is down 13.6% this year. The market fell almost 16% in October 2008. Last year’s total return was 14.3% and high-yield hasn’t been up more than 20% since 2009, when it surged
58%./
Article discussed positives movements in junk bonds areas past few days. Maybe time to reconsider adding to corp junk bond positions. The curve may appears revived for junks past wk or so. Will it remains stable over next month?...who knows
https://www.google.com/search?q=jnk+stock
Towle Deep Value Fund to reopen to new investors https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834420007430/fp0052470_497.htm497 1 fp00
52470_497.htm
Towle Deep Value Fund
(Ticker Symbol: TDVFX)
A series of Investment Managers Series Trust
Supplement dated April 3, 2020 to the
Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
both dated February 1, 2020, as supplemented,
and the Summary Prospectus dated February 3, 2020 as supplemented.
IMPORTANT NOTICE ON PURCHASE OF FUND SHARES
Effective as April 6, 2020, the Towle Deep Value Fund is publicly offered to new investors.
Please file this Supplement with your records.
FMIJX = OUCHX I know little to nothing about this fund but looking at the holdings Equity/Other as
@LewisBraham noted you will see a significant dollar amount of currency hedges primarily the large allocation ($1.9B) to the British Pound. I wonder if they got caught leaning the wrong way on one or all of these. I won't even attempt to analyze this as it's totally out of my ballpark and I have no clue what game they are even playing.
USD/GBPEdit to add: I guess I should have noted that the holdings were dated as of December 31, 2019 so my comments are more useless than normal. Who knows what they may be holding now.
The Selling Has Been Merciless ... @MikeW ... Thank you for your question on how I'm fairing. I am much in line with my conersative asset allocation funds which make up better than 2
5% of my overall portfolio. My best performer year to date in my hybrid income sleeve is CTFAX -1.72% while the worst one is FRINX -28.62%. Overall, this sleeve is down ytd a little under 1
5% and overall my portfolio as a whole bubbles being down a little above the 1
5% mark. So, I am running a pretty close to my conserative asset allocation funds which hold 30% to
50% equity.
The income yield on my portfolio is a little shy of 4% with capital gain distributions factored in the distribution yield moves north of
5%. With this, I plan to keep buying with my portfolio's income gerneration while things are on sale. My current asset allocation is 1
5% cash, 40% income and 4
5% equity.
The futures of the indices are up Market's been especially irrational
@Crash, That is a good one. How about investors being irrational ? Case in point, several months ago
@Catch22 posted a topic "Charles Bolin, MFO commentator. Funds that do well; with falling $/rising inflation write" and a new poster, Simon, who disagree with Mr. Bolin's viewpoints and among other thing. I quote his reply
Simon
January 13 Flag
I fundamentally disagree with a lot of Charles's viewpoints (for example he believes the economy is in the "latter stages of an expansion" whereas I think the exact opposite is true) but his articles are some of the finest on the web and I always read them. As Catch said - remain curious about life. Thank you Charles.
There were few more unpleasant exchanges between Simon and several experienced MFO posters here. He promptly disappeared from this board. Question is who is rational or irrational if his perspective is on? I ran across Charles Bolin articles awhile back in Seeking Alpha and I found his articles are well articulated and supported with data. Mr. Bolin also contributes to our monthly Commentary. I will repost my earlier posting to
@Charles on
Escape Plan and it listed several very informative articles from Charles Bolin (Seeking Alpha) on risk and current market condition.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/123803/#Comment_123803 Several low risk portfolio models were posted in his latest article in Seeking Alpha, the loss was modest, -11% as of March 21st which is excellent in light of what is happening today with S&P
500 loss at >30%.
The Selling Has Been Merciless ...
The Selling Has Been Merciless ... @Old_Skeet: Thank you for posting. Will you be adding to your two real estate funds that are down more than IOFIX or selling them off & deploying else where ? Yesterday IOFIX paid their normal dividend of $.0
5. Would it be time to buy a piece of this fund or wait for another two or three months ?
Thanks for your time, Derf
The Selling Has Been Merciless ... @VF - The article mentioned one, "An investor who bought MFA financial five years ago was up 70% as of February 20th. Now they’re down 73%. It went from $8 to $1.28 in 28 days. Unbelievable move."
Others include NRZ (-68.9%), TWO (-73.9%), LADR (-73.7%), WMC (-77.8%) and ABR (-6
5.9%). In addition there are several more with YTD losses of between -
50 to -60%.
Manager insights: Bulls, bears, and bond markets https://www.putnam.com/dcio/content/perspectives/7540-manager-insights-bulls-bears-and-bond-markets-2/Manager insights: Bulls, bears, and bond markets
Commenting on the extreme swings in the market over the past few weeks, several of Putnam’s senior fixed income managers shared their insights on the bond markets, liquidity, and the Federal Reserve’s actions as of March 24.
Extreme dislocations in money markets, corporate bonds, and securitized debt, as spreads widen and flows near a record pace, will eventually lead to potential opportunities for investors as they look to redeploy cash.
The Fed has acted swiftly and often by announcing numerous lending facilities to ease a liquidity crunch in the financial markets amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
High-yield bonds are pricing in the probability of higher default rates, particularly in the energy sector as oil prices have plummeted./
Article discuss current bonds environments, Feds' actions, risks assessments, and certain directions that their managers implement that may have favorable outcomes with future investments.
U.S. Global Investors Fund's Holmes Macro Trends Fund changing name US global has gold, emerging markets and bitcoin investments. If GROW stock goes to $0.25 I'm going to buy 10000 shares, and pretend I made $2500 investment in a mutual fund. In fact, going to put in a GTC order tomorrow. If it hits $0.25 and then market comes back, it will easily hit $1.00, while no way any of their funds will provide 300% return.
FMIJX = OUCHX Ouch...
FMIJX = OUCHX
Not what I expected from this fund.
YTD (-28%)
Another one of it's bifurcated moments. This fund is either in the top 10% or in the bottom 10% of its category.
Right now 95% of funds in its category are outperform this fund.
Real estate sector is falling
There was a time when I thought similarly about RMBFX. Not just long-short but long-short in a specific sector. I thought I had found the b..b.
I have great powers. I can buy GUMPX and it will fall
50%. Everyone be nice to me.