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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Janus Henderson reopens D share class to new investors & referral program
    Several SAI filings for various funds. Class D reopens July 6, 2020. Below are several examples as well as news stories concerning the reopening of the D share class and direct referral program:
    Asia Equity Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173520/d926498d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Global Technology and Innovation Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173519/d936651d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Balanced Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173518/d868184d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Global Life Sciences Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173517/d943820d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Research Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173516/d866682d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Global Research Fund:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173515/d946469d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Global Real Estate Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173514/d946374d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson International Value Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173513/d944932d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Overseas Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173512/d944689d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Contrarian Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173511/d930781d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Venture Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173510/d895932d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson International Opportunities Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173509/d946523d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Global Equity Income Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173507/d944786d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Emerging Markets Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173506/d36766d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Triton Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173505/d880545d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Global Select Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173504/d936723d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Enterprise Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173503/d934998d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Forty Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173502/d910866d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Growth and Income Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173501/d861091d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Global Value Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173500/d946513d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson European Focus Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173499/d932363d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Value Plus Income Fund:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173373/d823448d497k.htm
    Janus Henderson Absolute Return Income Opportunities Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173372/d789120d497k.htm
    News articles:
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200619005237/en/Janus-Henderson-Investors-Reopen-U.S.-Direct-Business
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3584530-janus-henderson-to-reopen-u-s-direct-business-channel
    Janus Henderson prospectus filing:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520173275/d906993d497.htm
  • To Succeed at Investing, Do What Yale Does

    Yeah, okay. Nice headline, Kip, but any retail investor putting 50% of their portfolio into alternatives is nuts. Most retail investors have little clue how to monitor, manage, or investigate such vehicles or ask the appropriate questions before going into them. No thanks.
  • Here Are 12 Investing Superstars in 2020, According to Morningstar
    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/06/15/here-are-12-investing-superstars-in-2020-according-to-morningstar/
    Here Are 12 Investing Superstars in 2020, According to Morningstar
    Morningstar has announced the nominees for its 2020 Awards for Investing Excellence, which recognizes established and up-and-coming portfolio managers for stellar performance as well as the asset management firm that excels in its stewardship of investors’ money. T. Rowe Price was the only firm that was nominated in all three categories. Fidelity had two nominations.
    Anyone recommend any of these funds?
  • To Succeed at Investing, Do What Yale Does
    https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T047-C032-S014-to-succeed-at-investing-do-what-yale-does.html
    To Succeed at Investing, Do What Yale Does
    Yale's endowment has delivered consistent income with minimal stock risk. Here's a look at how they did it and what it could mean for you and your portfolio
    .Yale takes a much different approach as you can see with their published asset allocation targets for their fiscal 2020:
    Absolute return: 23%
    Venture capital: 21.5%
    Leveraged buyouts: 16.5%
    Foreign equity: 13.75%
    Real estate: 10%
    Bonds and cash: 7%
    Natural resources: 5.5%
    Domestic equity: 2.75%
  • Charts suggest new highs 'could be on the table' for the S&P 500, Jim Cramer says
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/18/jim-cramer-charts-suggest-new-highs-are-in-store-for-the-sp-50.html
    Charts suggest new highs 'could be on the table' for the S&P 500, Jim Cramer says
    PUBLISHED THU, JUN 18 2020 7:47 PM EDT
    Tyler Clifford
    "The charts suggest that new highs could be on the table," CNBC's Jim Cramer.
    A chart analyst sees a scenario where the S&P 500 runs 9% from Thursday's close to a new high near 3,400.
    "The next ceiling of resistance is around 3,250, if we can clear that hurdle, Garner believes it's smooth sailing to that high," the "Mad Money" host said.
    ...he does point out reasonable sp500 future directions
  • MEGMX Matthews EM Equity
    Their first global equity fund. Forsaking their original mandate--- all Asia. Open since 30th April.Up in just the last month by +9.33%. With $8.5M AUM. https://us.matthewsasia.com/resources/docs/pdf/QA/BR068_QA-Emerging-Markets-Fund_0420.pdf
  • When should you Sell?
    No sells by me - but I’ve been cash heavy since selling our house, waiting for Dr Hussman to turn bullish. (That’s an exaggeration). I have always been risk adverse. I did put some money in a 529 near the bottom - but thought there would be plenty of opportunities for more buying. I still do.
  • Driving, not Flying
    It's a different experience I imagine today:
    image
  • When should you Sell?
    I sold about 5% over a month ago. Not great timing, obviously. I guess I can justify it as dialing down a little risk.
  • Aberdeen Diversified Alternatives Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413594/000110465920074561/a20-22854_2497.htm
    497 1 a20-22854_2497.htm 497
    ABERDEEN FUNDS
    Aberdeen Diversified Alternatives Fund
    Supplement dated June 18, 2020 to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated February 28, 2020, as supplemented to date
    On June 17, 2020, the Board of Trustees of Aberdeen Funds (the “Trust”) approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Aberdeen Diversified Alternatives Fund (the “Fund”) pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about August 17, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shareholder approval of the Liquidation is not required.
    Suspension of Sales. Effective after market close on June 19, 2020, shares of the Fund will no longer be available for purchase by investors with the exception of: (1) existing shareholders (including shares acquired through the reinvestment of dividends and distributions); (2) employer sponsored retirement plans; or (3) fee-based programs sponsored by financial intermediaries that have selected the Fund prior to market close on June 19, 2020. Effective after market close on July 31, 2020, the Fund will be closed to all investments except shares acquired through the reinvestment of dividends and distributions.
    Liquidation of Assets. The Fund will depart from its stated investment objective and policies as it liquidates holdings in preparation for the distribution of assets to investors. During this time, the Fund may hold more cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments than normal, which may prevent the Fund from meeting its stated investment objective. On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will liquidate and distribute pro rata to the shareholders of record as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date such shareholders’ proportionate interest in all of the remaining assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all the outstanding shares of the Fund. See “IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR QUALIFIED ACCOUNT HOLDERS” below if you are a qualified account holder. Contingent deferred sales charges will be waived in connection with any redemptions prior to the Liquidation Date. The Fund’s investment adviser, Aberdeen Standard Investments Inc., will bear all expenses of the Liquidation to the extent such expenses are not part of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and operating expenses; however, the Fund and its shareholders will bear transaction costs and tax consequences associated with turnover of the Fund’s portfolio in anticipation of the Liquidation.
    Alternatives. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund’s shareholders may redeem all or a portion of their shares or exchange their Fund shares for shares in the corresponding class of another series of the Trust pursuant to procedures set forth in the Trust’s Prospectus. If you wish to exchange your shares of the Fund into another series of the Trust, or would like to request additional copies of the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Trust, please call Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services at 866-667-9231.
    Holders through Financial Intermediaries. If you are invested in the Fund through a financial intermediary, please contact that financial intermediary if you have any questions. If you are invested in a tax qualified account, please see important additional information below.
    Income Tax Matters. The liquidation of the Fund, like any redemption of Fund shares, will constitute a sale upon which a gain or loss may be recognized for state and federal income tax purposes, depending on the type of account and the adjusted cost basis of the investor’s shares. Please contact your tax advisor to discuss the tax consequences to you of the Liquidation.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR QUALIFIED ACCOUNT HOLDERS
    Fund Direct IRA Accounts
    Fund Direct IRA accounts are those created for investment in the series of the Trust for which UMB Bank N.A. acts as custodian. Unless a shareholder, or other financial intermediary on behalf of such shareholder, provides instructions otherwise, Fund shares held on the Liquidation Date in Fund Direct IRAs will be redeemed in cash and the proceeds sent directly to the beneficiary of the account, which may result in the imposition of tax penalties.
    If you wish to avoid tax penalties that may be imposed if your Fund shares are liquidated, you must contact your financial intermediary or Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services at 866-667-9231 before the close of business on August 14, 2020 in order to exchange your shares for those of another series of the Trust. If you have any questions about your individual tax situation, please contact your tax advisor or financial intermediary. If you wish to exchange your shares into another series of the Trust, or would like to request additional copies of the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the Trust, please call Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services at 866-667-9231.
    Non-Fund Direct Traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, SIMPLE, SEP, or SARSEP IRA and 403(b) Custodial Accounts (“Non-Fund Direct Retirement Accounts”)
    If you are invested in the Fund through a Non-Fund Direct Retirement Account and Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services does not receive instructions from you or the account trustee or custodian prior to close of business on August 14, 2020, the Fund will send a liquidating distribution to the trustee/custodian for the benefit of your account, which the trustee/custodian will process according to its own policies and procedures.
    401(k), Pension and Profit Sharing Plans and other Tax-qualified Retirement Plans (“Retirement Plans”)
    If you are invested in the Fund through a Retirement Plan, and Aberdeen Funds Shareholder Services does not receive instructions from you or the Retirement Plan administrator or other plan fiduciary prior to close of business on August 14, 2020, the Fund will send a liquidating distribution to the Retirement Plan, which the Retirement Plan will process according to its own policies and procedures.
    The pending liquidation of the Fund may be terminated and/or abandoned at any time before the Liquidation Date by action of the Board of Trustees of the Trust.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • When should you Sell?
    I bought the downdraft. After some good gains from the updraft I have lightened up my equity allocation moving the equity sell proceeds to the income side of my portfolio.
    Back in March I was 20/40/40 and moved to a 15/40/45 which grew to about a 12/38/50 as equities had their run. In recently rebalancing, I am now about a 10/45/45. This allocation is due mostly to low yields on cash. On the equity side I am 5% heavy mostly in good dividend equity income funds that provide qualified dividends. On the income side I am 5% heavy split among multi sector income and hybrid income funds. My plan is to let income generated inside my portfolio rebuild my cash position over the coming year.
    I am anticipating, by year end, that my cash allocation will be about 15% should current asset values remain relative to what they currently are.
  • When should you Sell?
    How many that sold out suffered by moving up a tax bracket ? No mention of this.
    Also a show of hands from MFO ers who sold out or made large sells . I'm going to say less than 5%. I'm guessing more buys than sells with this bear !
    Derf
  • Stock-market legend who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’..‘crazy stuff'
    When it rains it pours ... Reading MFO and following Bloomberg ... it now appears that we are in the midst of an inflated dollar ... inflated bond market ... and inflated equity market.
    Where to hide?
    - It’s hard to call cash “inflated” at today’s rates.
    - Oil was twice as expensive 10 years ago as today.
    - Japan’s Nikki 225 stock index isn’t yet back to 1980s levels.
    - Silver was more expensive in 1980 than now.
    - Many Latin American countries are mired in debt, unstable governance, corruption and rampant Covid 19. These are scary scenarios. On the other hand these are the kinds of conditions that can prick bubbles and reward long term patient investors.
    Longer term: U.S. equities may well have attained “bubble” status. But those who’ve invested in them over the past 30 years (and longer) have been laughing all the way to the bank.
    Perspective: I graduated from HS in ‘65 with little knowledge of investing (aside from saving cash acquired caddying). A friend in college (around ‘67-‘68) introduced me to her dad who was selling mutual funds as a second job. That was the first I ever heard of them. He talked them up optimistically. We’d just been through a serious market correction and most average people feared stock investing. Since that time, markets have experienced multiple bull and bear markets. The term “bubble” gets tossed around loosely. If there were bubbles along the way, after they burst the U.S. market went on to even higher levels.
    Link: Linked article discusses the highs and lows in the U.S. market since my own initial 1967-68 reference period. https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/02/25/bear-markets-in-modern-times.aspx Others here who date back to the ‘30s, ‘40s and ‘50s may want to share their even earlier recollections.
  • When should you Sell?
    Fidelity data shows nearly one-third of their investors 65 and older sold all of their stock holdings at some point between February and May while just 18% of all investors across their platform sold out of stocks.
    I had a number of discussions with investors who were contemplating selling out of stocks in March. Many we retirees who worried about how an extended downturn could impact their retirement plans.
    I understand why this group is more trigger happy with their portfolio. The U.S. stock market was up 10 out of 11 years heading into 2020. This crisis was looking like it could turn into Great Depression 2.0.
    We’re living in scary times.
    But scary times and panic are never good reasons for selling out of your stocks.
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/06/when-should-you-sell-your-stocks/
  • Stock-market legend who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’..‘crazy stuff'
    Sorry, Jeremy Grantham was wrong so many times since 2010 that it's not even funny but sad.
    He predicted at the end of 2010 that US stocks will lag EM but he also was way, way off about several categories performance.
    image
    Example: he said that US will make 2.5% inflation + 0.4% = 2.9% yearly average in the next 7 years. The SP500 made 14.45% in the next 7 years (link)
    All these "experts" are wrong because of Fed intervention.
    Bottom line: add another false prediction.
  • Where the U.S. retail blooms are and are not. Also, The Fed is addicted to propping up the markets.
    The first article provides a short visual look at how various retail business sectors performed in May. Relatedly, the second article takes a look at the Feds role in the massive and prompt fiscal and monetary policy actions that supported this May's rebound during this first phase of the pandemic. I am left wondering how the virus will bend this short term retail rebound, the economy in general, and the stock market over the next several months. It won't be dull.
    image
    In essence, the Fed has adopted a strategy that works like a one-way ratchet, providing a floor for stock and bond prices but never a ceiling.
    https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-retail-graphics/may-flowers-where-the-u-s-retail-blooms-are-and-are-not-idUSKBN23O1HG
    https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/17/fed-is-addicted-propping-up-market-whether-it-needs-help-or-not/
  • This year’s stock-market run has an uncanny resemblance to 2009, analyst says, with big upside for s
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/B9CDB964-AFD7-11EA-885A-481D889F3439
    This year’s stock-market run has an uncanny resemblance to 2009, analyst says, with big upside for stocks ahead
    By Andrea Riquier
    Expect stocks to spin their wheels for a while and then rally toward the end of the year, this analyst thinks
    If the topsy-turvy financial markets of 2020 have you scratching your head, you’re not alone. But you may be overthinking it, according to one longtime market watcher.
    “2020 is just like 2009,”
  • Dow ends 527 points higher and the stock market notches its 3rd straight gain amid hope of coronavir
    All green lights from here, couple yellow near stops??? Few days ago many pundits predict massive down turns at least another 15-25% DJI reaching March levels?
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-ends-527-points-higher-and-the-stock-market-notches-its-3rd-straight-gain-amid-hope-of-coronavirus-treatment-2020-06-16?mod=markets
    Dow ends 527 points higher and the stock market notches its 3rd straight gain amid hope of coronavirus treatment
    Published: June 16, 2020 at 4:08 p.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre
    DJIA
    +2.04%
    SPX
    +1.89%
    COMP
    +1.74%
    PCG
    -0.27%
    U.S. stock benchmarks closed out Tuesday trade sharply higher after investors parsed testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the the economy, reacted to a report of a prospective treatment for COVID-19, and to a report on retail sales that suggested that worst of the damage wrought by coronavirus lockdowns may be over. Retail sales rose 17.7% in May, according to data from the Commerce Department, marking a sharp rebound from a record slump in March and April during the depths of the pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.04% closed up 527 points, or 2%, at 26,290, the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.89% gained 1.9% at 3,124, on the back of gains in the energy and health-care sectors, both up more than 2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.74% closed with a gain of 1.8% at 9,896. All closing levels are on a preliminary basis, and all three benchmarks marked their third straight gain, recovering mightily from a jarring pullback on Thursday. The retail sales got the stock market off to a bullish start and gains deepened after BBC reported that dexamethasone, a cheap and widely available steroid, is showing signs of success in low doses when prescribed to patients who are suffering serious symptoms from the illness derived from the coronavirus. In corporate news, Pacific Gas & Electric PCG, -0.27% pleaded guilty Tuesday to killing 84 people in a 2018 wildfire in Northern California, agreeing to pay a maximum fine of $3.5 million, as well as the cost of the investigation. Shares of the utility closed down 0.3%. Meanwhile, Powell in his Senate testimony reiterated that the road to recovery from the pandemic would likely be a long one and cautioned investors that they shouldn't overreact to surprisingly good economic data like the May retail sales report published earlier Tuesday because "the levels of output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels." Powell will testify in front of a House panel on Wednesday.
  • Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages. Bored Bettors Wager on Stocks
    "When Russian table tennis or Korean baseball won’t scratch the itch, some are trying their hand at trading equities. It’s enough to move the market, analysts say."
    "Millions of small-time investors have opened trading accounts in recent months, a flood of new buyers unlike anything the market had seen in years, just as lockdown orders halted entire sectors of the economy and sent unemployment soaring. It’s not clear how many of the new arrivals are sports bettors, but some are behaving like aggressive gamblers. There has been a jump in small bets in the stock options market, where wagers on the direction of share prices can produce thrilling scores and gut-wrenching losses. And transactions that make little economic sense, like buying up the nearly valueless shares of bankrupt companies, are off the charts."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/business/sports-gamblers-stocks-virus.html
    Zany action in recent days has me convinced. Apparently these guys (and gals) are watching every short term development or coment by an official and placing wagers on which way the indexes will move.
    - Week ago - Payroll numbers better than expected - Powerful up day
    - Thursday - Covid 19 redeveloping in China - Powerful down day
    - Monday - Friday's steep dive continues until Fed Chair Powell reveals Fed is buying Corporate bonds - Market reverses, makes up 700 point drop (Dow) and ends day higher
    - Tuesday - Monday's rally continues after strong overnight futures - some based on reports of a trillion dollar infrastructure plan in the works. Morning's hotter than expected retail sales numbers add fuel to the fire.
    - Later Tuesday - Dow falls about 500 points from day's high, apparently on comments Fed Chair Powell makes to Congress that deficit spending will hurt us longer term. But later recovers (based on whatever else he said)
    Just watching. You'd need to be insane to try to time or outsmart this market. A lot of short term dumb money sloshing around.
  • BulletShares versus ibonds bond ladder
    Looking at the prospectuses (something one should always do before investing in a security), there are at least three differences that would make BulletShares®'s numbers seem better. Call risk looks to be the most significant, and is even greater than you're suggesting.
    iBonds® Dec 2023 Term Muni Bond ETF prospectus.
    Invesco Exchange-Traded Self-Indexed Fund Trust prospectus.
    iBonds track an S&P AMT-Free Muncipal Series December 20xx Index™ while BulletShares track a proprietary Invesco BulletShares®MunicipalBond 20xx Index.
    The first difference is obvious from the names of the indexes. iBonds invest in AMT-free munis. Consequently they may pay a little less interest. The last major change in tax laws made AMT moot for most investors. So generally there's no advantage in accepting a lower yield to get AMT-free payments. I suspect the difference in yields between AMT-free and private activity munis is not so large for the same reason.
    The second and most important difference is callability. The S&P indexes include only "non-callable U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 20[xx]." The Invesco indexes "may include callable, puttable, and pre-funded bonds." The corresponding ETFs explicitly include call risk among their principal risks. Call risk is not mentioned in the iBonds prospectus. So it appears that the difference in call risk between the ETFs is not just quantitative (more or less call risk), but qualitative (is there call risk or not?).
    The third difference, related to callability is how the maturity year is determined. Obviously with noncallable bonds (iBonds), the year of maturity is, well, the year the bonds mature. But with BulletShares, a callable bond may mature in 2024 (or even Jan 2025) and be considered a 2023 bond, so long as the first call date is within 13 months of maturity (and if the call is at par). That would seem to mean that the fund could include some 2024/2025 bonds trading at a discount (so YTW = YTM). This would make the SEC yield higher, since you're really buying 2024 bonds rather than 2023 bonds. But it would also seem to subject the bonds (and thus the ETF) to greater interest rate risk.
    I haven't worked through all the differences in the yields, durations, etc. There could be more going on. Still, this is a reasonable start at identifying the fundamental differences. I would add another: S&P has much more experience in designing indexes than Invesco (or its predecessor, Accretive Asset Management [acquired by Guggenheim]), and Blackrock (with its predecessor, Barclays) has earned a reputation for well managed index funds. I don't know how well Invesco runs its index funds.
    Finally, according to the fact sheets, both 2023 ETFs have the same 0.18% ER.
    iBonds 2023 (IBML) fact sheet.
    BulletShares 2023 (BSMN) fact sheet.