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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Portfolio down 1.01 % for the day , but 3 or 4 NA to report in.
    Try to have a good weekend, Derf
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Don’t know what REMIX is about - but a number of financial outlets, including Barron’s, have commented lately that the futures markets were overextended. While futures contracts can be used to hedge risk, they also represent a bullish bet from what I’ve been able to read. A lot of funds using futures got hit today. TAIL (which I own) which hedges with puts (seen as more bearish) did OK. Of course, all these gimmick funds are risky longer term.
    The inflation hedges, like miners, were whacked hard today. In the oil sector, both NYMEX & BRENT were down over 6%. Not much was spared that I can see. Real Estate & Utilities both hit hard - even as interest rates fell.
    Cheer up. I believe this underperformance on the inflation hedges to be only “transitory.” :)
    -
    For the benefit of mfo members, here’s how some hedge-type funds on my watch list performed today:
    SWAN -0.28%
    HEGD -1.83%
    DOG +2.47%
    NUSI -1.25%
    DRSK +0.14%
    SPDN +2.26%
    FTLS -1.84%
    DFND -0.10%
    TAIL (owned) +2.80%
    A couple mutual funds that are more broadly diversified than the above, but which employ some hedging techniques:
    HSGFX +2.44%
    TMSRX (owned) -0.47%
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Yes-I'm glad I only have $1,000 invested in that fund. The 90 day clock(holding period) is running for me on this fund, unless they decide to emulate IOFIX and I have to pay the hostage fee to get out sooner !
  • Barron's
    (November 24) “Today I sold one, NGLOY, after a quick 14% run-up since they recommended it roughly 2 months ago. Still like it - but have been trimming risk wherever I can of late.”
    NGLOY lost 7.54% today.
    Edit 11/27 (To be completely honest here) I moved the proceeds from NGLOY into an existing holding, GLFOX. It lost about 2.4% yesterday - so am only two thirds as smart (or lucky) as might at first appear. :)
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.
    This briefing is for the week ending November 26, 2021.
    The Index Review
    For the week the major equity indices finished down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -2.71%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -2.34%, the Nasdaq Composite retreated -3.14% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -4.98%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were utilities -0.24%, consumer defensive -0.48%, and health care -1.35%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.29% and is up year to date 22.33%; but off its 52 week high by -3.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.82% and for the week and lost -0.46%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -2.26% and is off its 52 week high by -3.32%.
    Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were EWZ (Brazil) +0.79%, SPY (US S&P 500) -2.29%, and QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) -1.95%.
    Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +2.53%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.72% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.25%.
    Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +6.54%, DBA (Agriculture) -0.25% and GLD (Gold) -4.08%.
    Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were REMX (Rare Earth Metals) +3.75%, SLX (Steel) +0.60% and LIT (Global Lithium) -0.93%.
    Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXY (Japanese Yen) +1.05%, UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.59%, and FXF (Swiss Frank) +0.24%.
    A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Currently, Old_Skeet is a little underweight fixed income due to anticipated rising interest rates and a little overweight equity due to a seasonal stock trend via a special investment position (spiff). In the fall I generally increase my equity weighting and towards the end of spring I trim, or close, my special investment position. As I write, the equity spiff that I opened back in September, during a stock market dip, is up 3.42%.
    Articles of Investment Interest
    Wall St Week Ahead COVID-19 Fears Reappear As a Threat to Market
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wall-st-week-ahead-covid-19-fears-reappear-threat-market-2021-11-26/
    Best Money Market Mutual Funds Of 2021
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/the-best-money-market-mutual-funds/
    Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
    Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
    Short Volume SPY ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading SPY ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
    SPY Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    T/A Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
    Bond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
    Short Volume AGG ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/AGG
    Yield Charting AGG ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591
    AGG Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535
    T/A Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
    Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    @bee - Thanks.
    Obviously something is screwed up there. Note that for 1 year the fund ranks 25th among its peer group, while for 3 years it ranks much better - 7th. So I’ll guess they haven’t updated their numbers on the chart you pasted to reflect the current year’s lackluster performance.
    However, if the fund’s potential “worst case” downside really is 65% as they claim, I’d suggest not buying it. Such a disastrous year would leave only 35% of the fund’ value remaining. Seems to me like you’d have to earn nearly 200% on that meager sum to get back to break-even the following year.
    -
    Added - I didn’t intend to recommend Ferris’ site. It’s just one of several I click on from time to time for a wide variety of views. Morningstar and Lipper are also helpful for broad overviews. For specific fund holdings and year-to year-performance it’s hard to top Yahoo. I buy very few new funds. Usually put candidates on a watch list and monitor for at least a few months before buying. MaxFunds seems to be the most critical in its assessments - for whatever reason.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    I established a partial position in PDI near the close today. The rest may be on/before Dec 10.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    @hank, thanks for the link to MaxFunds. There seems to be some inconsisitency. The site reports POAGX as a long time wiiner with an 86/100
    image
    But when you click on the link it reports the fund as "Poor", linked here:
    maxfunds.com/funds/data.php?ticker=POAGX&pg=d
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    One of my go-to sites, MaxFunds, scores TMSRX somewhat favorably, giving it the lowest possible risk assessment of 1. Yet, curiously, it grades the fund as one of the worst (5) on its “Hot Money Index.” Pray tell me why a lame low volatility fund like this would be seeing huge investor flows in and out?
    Overall assessment = “Good” (73/100)
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    New Covid variant detected in S. Africa, so futures are down. US stock exchanges close early (1PM ET) tomorrow.
    I sold my TMSRX a while back. I think there is such a thing as "momentum" with some of these mutual funds - as if they suddenly lose their mojo, and you don't know if/when it will come back.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    +1 maybe my orders will be filled at a lower nav tomorrow night.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    TMSRX has lower ytd 1 month and 3 month returns than PSCAX VARAX CVSIX GPANX .funds I own or follow.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    “(TMSRX) primarily seeks exposure to the following strategies, relying on both fundamental and quantitative research, although additional strategies may be employed at any time …
    Macro and Absolute Return;
    Fixed Income Absolute Return;
    Equity Research Long/Short;
    Quantitative Equity Long/Short;
    Volatility Relative Value;
    Style Premia.
    (Tools, methods, investments include) “… international and fixed income investing, short sales, derivatives, options, swaps, forward and futures contracts, leverage, and non-diversification risks, which may result in greater price fluctuation than the overall stock market.”
    (From T. Rowe Price)
    Here’s a link to an Article about alternative investing.
    I agree with @msf that the classification of “alternative” funds is confusing and sometimes inconsistent. I wish they’d stop trying. To me an alternative is a fund or other asset that is uncorrelated (in varying degrees) with stocks or bonds. Beyond that, I select the assets to fit the alternative part of my portfolio. Currently I use TMSRX, PRPFX and ABRZX to perform that function. #1 and #3 are probably pretty standard choices. #2 isn't a typical choice for inclusion in alternatives. And, at times when it served my purposes, I’ve plugged PRPFX into the balanced corner of the portfolio. The designation of components into portfolio sleeves is to serve the needs of the investor designing the portfolio. Do not be a slave to the machinations of M* or some other source who knows nothing about your risk tolerance, portfolio composition, investment purpose or your own macro view of the investment world.
    If you enjoy investing and track funds closely you will arrive over time at an understanding of how your specific investments behave under varying circumstances and the role in the portfolio you want to assign them. If you don’t enjoy the pursuit, than a simple target date or other allocation fund should do nicely.
    I’m not wedded to TMSRX. Most of these pseudo hedge-funds have serious drawbacks - high fees among them. And since their purpose is primarily to “hedge” equity risk, don’t expect them to keep up with equities. When looking at fees keep in mind that the strategies employed - especially short sales - are much more expensive to implement than simply investing in a plain vanilla equity or bond fund.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    I could just repeat what I said in a nearby thread on BAMBX (LINK).
    Tips on linking:
    One can link to a specific post by copying the link from the date on that post; your post is:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/143272/#Comment_143272
    When quoting material, a link to the source can provide additional context. The M* definition may have come from Morningstar, Morningstar Category for Funds Definitions (May 6, 2021), p. 34.
    As to what it means to be an alternative strategy fund, M* changed this about a half year ago. At that time, it removed long-short funds from the alternative strategy group, because these funds are largely influenced by the equity market. But M* kept market neutral funds (a special case of long-short, where long = short) as alternative funds. The reasoning being that these funds have diversified away the equity nature of their risk.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1036165/introducing-the-new-alternative-morningstar-categories
    That seems to be M*'s current take on alternative funds. That regardless of what they hold they diversify away the intrinsic nature of their holdings. So, if a fund uses multiple alternative strategies, it is now called a multistrategy fund. But if a fund uses multiple strategies that are not alternative strategies, it is not. Well, it's still a multistrategy fund, but it's not a multistrategy category fund.
    Are we confused yet? I certainly am, and following the maxim to never invest in something one doesn't understand, I tend to avoid alternative strategy funds, whether singular or multiple. YMMV.
    Fidelity has a slew of target retirement funds with lower volatility, higher Sharpe ratios, and better YTD, 1, and 3 year returns, including FFFAX (actively managed), FIKFX (index funds), FHBZX (both actively and passively managed funds), FIRMX, and FIRNX. Along somewhat the same lines is Vanguard's VASIX.
    These funds correlate somewhat more closely than TMSRX to the stock and bond markets, but if you're primarily looking for bond alternatives (better than cash and not too volatile) they seem to be good, less complicated candidates.
    Portfolio Visualizer correlation matrix
    A cursory look at the quarterly performance breakdown suggests that TMSRX may do better in periods of high market volatility, but that doesn't seem to help improve its long term volatility or its longer term performance.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=TMSRX
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    As of 11/24 I see my holdings ($) went south, (down a few bucks). I'll give it a little more time before pulling the trigger !
    Enjoy your meal, Derf
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    Good point about OppenheimerFunds (thankfully merged away now into Invesco/IVZ) that was NOT following the script and had put lot of junk/HY in its core bond and allocation/balanced funds. Its Oppenheimer-Rochester funds were the junkiest of the junk but those investors knew the risks while core bond and allocation/balanced fund investors had no reasons to expect/suspect the bad stuff in their funds.
    It was also the manager of IL 529 and I complained to everyone (state regulators, M* (a 529 plan rater), in my own posts) but those early warnings/complaints were ignored. Eventually, OppenheimerFunds made token restorations in IL 529, was eventually replaced as its manager, and IL 529 is now a highly rated plan again (Gold by M*). Invesco/IVZ acquired OppenheimerFunds in 2019.
    But note that my reference above was to core-plus bond funds that can have up to 35% HY, while core bond funds have only 5% of less (unless they cheat).
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    “These days, a typical core-plus bond fund can have up to 35% in below investment-grade bonds.”
    I think it’s the trend towards assuming more risk rather than any particular asset class or investor that’s brought to the forefront by the WSJ article. If this is part of a broader national trend across different types of investors - both institutional and individual - than we may be setting up for significant liquidity issues and outsized losses next time around.
    Oppenheimer, while an exception, wrote the book on how not to run a Core Bond Fund. In 2008 theirs lost 41%, while their “Champion Bond Fund” did substantially worse.
    Brings to mind that old adage about “What’s in a name … ?”