I didn’t want to start a separate thread, so hope no one minds by adding some possibly related thoughts … (2)
- Maybe I’m naive, but I’m sensing some kind of capitulation in the broader equity markets just staring at the numbers, including a 600 point early morning downdraft in the DJI today. Personally, I’ve been adding bits and pieces across the board to various types of equity holdings, including a recent stake in ARKK. Albeit, I may be completely wrong. Furthermore, even should the markets stop or slow their rapid decent, there’s no assurance they won’t later fall much further.
- I spoke to an acquaintance yesterday who has been retired 10 years with no pension. Surviving on Social Security. Little in savings. Owns a home. Not a very prudent course financially of course! However, did very well managing $$ during the past decade of inflation (0-3% as measured by the CPI). Individual is utterly “lost” in this new era of 8-9% inflation. Have to feel for folks like that. Perhaps this anecdote relates to the “Sentiment Index” in some small way.

Fed fund futures market is going haywire showing 80% for 100 bps, followed by 75, 25, 25 to end at 3.75-4.00% in December.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

75% chance 100 points raised per Vegas I meant Wallstreet analysts

It has been a pretty long stretch already with poor Sentiment (a contrarian indicator).
Q2 earnings season has bad reports from big banks (JPM, MS, etc).
Then we have 75-100 bps rate hike by the FOMC in about 2 weeks.
Will mid-June market lows hold or are we going below?
Keep seatbelts ON and hang on tight.

For the week ending on 7/13/22, Sentiment remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (46.5%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (26.6%; low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.9%; very low); Bull-Bear Spread was -19.6% (low). Investor concerns included recession; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (20+ weeks). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down, bonds up, oil down, gold flat, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=702

@carew388: I did the same with PTIAX. Down 10%+ this year, while IOFAX has lost almost 20%.

+1 David My bond wakeup call occurred in 1Q 2020, when BBBMX and TRBUX suffered IMHO significant losses which were erased with QE. When My fund holding PTIAX started declining in 2022, I said heck no-I'm not going through this again . Sold all my bonds and moved proceeds into Brokered CD's yielding 3-3.4%. Too much bond volatility for me!

I had an investment property sale and my investment advisor did a 1031 to defer taxes. Exchanged to a managed property to free up my time and paid no tax.

@msf: thanks for doing the legwork and for reminding me how old I am. 1986??

Prices at the consumer level were 9.1% higher last month than a year earlier, accelerating from May’s 8.6% inflation level. That also was worse than economists’ expectations for 8.8%.

This will ensures 75 bps rate hike in July. Previous sighting of inflation peaking did not panned out.
https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stocks-fall-as-wall-street-braces-for-huge-hike-in-rates/ar-AAZw2O6?li=BBnb7Kz

@davidmoran, glad to see you return. Yes, it has been a tough year. When both stocks and bonds go down at the same time, there are few safe options left other than cash. With CPI reported this morning at 9,1%, cash is losing figure buying power too.

TROW $110.77 this morning.
My guess is TROW will be a lot higher in a few years - if you have a long term horizon. Asset managers tend to wax and wane with the overall equity market since their earnings are based largely on fees assessed on those invested assets. In a bear market, like now, those assets have declined in worth - reducing fees earned. As some investors flee, it worsens the effect. A double-whammy this time around is that fixed income assets under management (ie bonds) have declined in sync with equities. On reflection, I don’t think these (asset managers) are a good hedge inside an equity heavy portfolio (for obvious reason).
I’ve been trying to think through the possible effect the bonanza double digit yield on one-year inflation adjusted treasury bonds has had. Certainly, $10,000 isn’t enough to rock the risk markets. But magnify that sum by X number of investors and it has to have had an effect. I’m wondering too how that has possibly impacted the short term muni market?
I often check the YTD Numbers on BB and they’re beginning to look stark. Last evening:
DOW -14%
S&P - 19%
NAS - 27%
Suspect we haven’t enjoyed this much drama in the markets since ‘08.

Wonder if it’s recent 40% drop in share price was a result of institutional selling verses “dumb money” investor’s selling.

I doubt that. But let’s look at this a different way. I wonder if more individual investors have fled the markets or stopped contributing to their workplace plan? And whether TRP with its stellar history of serving those smaller investors has felt the impact more than some institutions that cater to higher net worth investors?

1986. Ten year income averaging is still available for qualified plan lump sum distributions to people born before 1936.
Subtitle E: Miscellaneous Provisions - Repeals income averaging.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/99th-congress/house-bill/3838
https://www.rbcwm-usa.com/resources/file-687802.pdf

+1

The 07/01 and 07/08 episodes were posted to the Bloomberg WSW website on 07/12 and 07/11 respectively.

Generally, with lots of exceptions, the IRS expects you to pay your taxes equally in each quarter. That should be pretty obvious, because otherwise everyone would skip their first three estimates and just pay everything on the last estimate.

For estimated tax purposes, the year is divided into four payment periods. Each period has a specific payment due date. If you don’t pay enough tax by the due date of each of the payment periods, you may be charged a penalty even if you are due a refund when you file your income tax return.

IRS Pub 505, When to Pay Estimated Taxes
As Yogi wrote, withholdings are usually considered evenly applied. But if it advantageous to do so (e.g. if your withholdings are front loaded), "you may choose to include your withholding according to the actual dates on which the amounts will be withheld." Pub 505, instructions for Worksheet 2-7, line 31.
However you choose to allocate withholdings, so long as you've paid in (estimates plus withholdings) of at least 1/4 of the total as of the first estimate deadline, 1/2 as of the 2nd estimate deadline, and 3/4 as of the third, the IRS doesn't care if these payments are even or not. However, if you back load the payments, the IRS does care. Unless your income was correspondingly back loaded.
If your income was, say $15K in the first quarter, $15K in the second quarter, $15K in the third quarter, and (due to YE divs and cap gains) $45K in the last quarter, the IRS will allow you to pay in roughly half of your taxes in the last quarter.
See Form 2210 for how the underpayment penalty is calculated, quarter by quarter. It has a Schedule AI (annualized income) where you can document how much income you received in each quarter. Based on those amounts, it adjusts how much you should have paid each quarter.
This is not the easiest form to fill out and requires fairly detailed bookkeeping (e.g. how much interest did your bank pay you in April and May?). Like Ben, I am not a professional, but I have tried this at home more than a couple of times. I found it something to avoid unless one's income is very uneven.
Still, it provides an escape in case you wind up with a lot of unexpected income in a quarter.

I am fairly certain if you pay 100% of your 2021 total on time, there will be no penalty regardless of your 2022 income.
If you take RMDs, you can pay all of your estimates taxes at the end of the year and have it count for entire year without penalty. Ask your brokerage to send the amount you determine is due to the IRS as a tax payment. Just make sure you file for the withdrawal with enough time for them to process it before 12/31/2022
This also reduces the value of your IRA, making next years RMD lower.

See my earlier post in this thread,
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/151208/#Comment_151208

Note that SCHW is much more than an asset-manager. It is broker-dealer, custodian, bank, asset-manager, etc. IMO, it is not a peer of TROW.

Your thoughts on a closer peer...JPM?
Adding JPM to the comparison:
TROW , SCHW, JPM

Only taxes withheld (W-2, 1099, etc) are considered evenly applied and one can do over-withholding from paychecks, IRA or pension withdrawals, etc to avoid penalties related to other income. Otherwise, estimated taxes must be paid quarterly on other income to avoid penalty. IRS would calculate penalty if you don't calculate/include it.