Hi guys: With the stock market activity that we had this week I thought I'd post an update with this weeks barometer reading. For the month I have the S&P 500 Index about flat, thus far, with a barometer reading of 131 as we opened the month and currently with a reading of 132 as I write which indicates that the Index is extremely overbought at this time.
Please note that the barometer is not a long term forward looking model that another poster (Junkster) referenced it to, the Zweig Thrust Indicator. Perhaps, Junskter did not have a good understanding of how the barometer works. Interesting, though, this post (along with some of his other post) have now been removed from the discussion area prior to me making this edit.
I use the barometer to assist me in adjusting my equity allocation when felt approperiate. When the barometer reflects that the Index is oversold I increase my equity allocation and when the barometer indicates that the Index is overbought I generally reduce my equity allocation. Pretty simple ... but, effective as this method tends to having me buying equity ballast at low prices and then selling it off at a higher price.
When there is a meaningful barometer reading change I'll update the thread.
Have a good weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing.
Old_Skeet
Additional comment. I'm now back to building cash since my rebalance process is mostly complete. With this, I have reduced my equity allocation from 49% to 45% as equities have had a strong upward run of late and were trimmed. This rebalance now positions me overweight in both my income and equity areas by 5% each with about 10% in cash. From my base allocation of 20/40/40 I am now 10/45/45 as I can overweight each area (the income side and the equity side) of my portfolio by up to 5%. These overweights are due mostly to low cash yields. My overweight on the equity side is in good dividend paying equity mutual funds that produce qualified dividends and on the income side in multi sector and hybrid income funds which produce dividends as well. I'm thinking that by the end of the year, if valuations remain relative to what they are now, my cash allocation will build and bubble in the 15% range coming from income generation from inside my portfolio. At yearend, I may elect to do another rebalance as I usually rebalance by the calendar two times per year and other times if felt warranted.

SDY or NOBL, both ETF's, might be the closest you can get. An investment in the S&P 500 does better and USMV beats them both as well in terms of return performance.

I've seen a lot of recent activity attributed to rebalancing defined index portfolios -- like 60-40's.
I have also seen activity attributed to sports bettors with no place to go. The piece seems short on real numbers.
I did not enjoy my ride with the Vanguard quants I bought in 2006 when computer algorithms still seemed like a good idea. I sold them as soon as they were back in the black. And I haven't looked back.

I have a fair amount of overlap with funds previously mentioned. Among those not mentioned . . .
YTD performance is per M* rather than any picture of my performance.
Neuberger Berman Genesis (NBGNX) has done just fine @ -5.44 YTD . I'm glad I held on when I was selling funds to simplify, and rebalance, back in December-January. Their thesis still made sense to me when push came to shove.
Value Line Mid-Cap (VLIFX) is -4.98. I bought some on march 18th. That has worked out pretty well.
Merk Hard Currency (MERKX) is at -2.7. I'm so far in the red on that one. I doubled down on that and USAGX (a gold fund) after Trump was elected. Maybe it would take off if we had Weimar-style inflation. I hope it never takes off. But I'll probably hold it until the end.
Fidelity Floating Rate (FFRHX) is holding up better than VWELX at only -4.71. I bought it as part of my inflation hedge. Compared to MERKX, I feel like the guy that stopped hitting himself in the head with a rock.
I'm not too happy with the DoubleLine bond funds I bought. Their infrastructure fund (BILDX) is only +.13. And their low duration is off -.86. I'll be looking for opportunities to get out ahead with both.
Fidelity Real Estate Income (FRIFX) has been a party-pooper. It's at -12.69 while TIAA Real Estate (TCREX) is only off -7.90. FRIFX was supposed to be the less volatile real estate option. Considering I bought them after selling Vanguard's realty index (VGSIX), I shouldn't kick too much. It's off 12.48.
Switching out of Vanguard's small cap index for Boston-Walden's small cap ESG (BOSOX) has not worked out yet. It's off -17.72 while the index is only off -13.51.
I still have high hopes for ESG moving forward. Not sure how long I'll have to wait. Parnassus, and Boston-Walden midcaps have been nothing to write home about compared to the mid-caps mentioned above.
TIAA-CREF's ESG bond fund TSBRX has worked out better so far at +3.59
Janus Henderson Small Cap Value has been a lamb led to slaughter. The less said of it, the better.
Speaking of the funds that got away during my rebalance. Nicholas (NICSX) is only off -4.15. But I was worried about the succession issues after going through tribulations with Homestead Small Cap (HSCSX). That started to wobble after Morris and Teach retired. And began to founder after Ashton retired. I got out some time ago.
I dumped Royce Special Equity (RYSEX). There are other funds that watch the balance sheets, and still manage to buy a winning stock every once in a while.
I dumped Mairs and Powers funds when I realized it was silly to own something because I went to college in St. Paul 45 years ago.

Over three months, this fund with an SEC yield of 0.15% is going to return around 4 basis points. With a duration of 1.9 years, a 2 basis point increase in rates (+0.02%) could wipe out the total three month return. (A small decrease in rates could likewise double the total return, but we're basically at ZIRP, so a rate decline seems less likely.)
I use three months because one can find brokered three month CDs with 0.20% APY. That's a higher yield than the ETF with no interest rate risk to principal. Credit risk is similar: FDIC insured vs. backed by full faith and credit of the treasury.
The downside of CDs is that liquidity is limited - one can only get cash out every three months. However, if one is looking to stash cash for under three months, then this ETF is going to give you even less than 4 basis points while exposing you to interest rate risk. A mattress would not be appreciably worse.
Brokered CDs can make sense for stashing cash in an IRA if one is focused on safety. That's because moving money from trustee to trustee, especially short term, is troublesome. But if one's cash is in a taxable account, one can just use an internet bank. No penalty CDs are still yielding over 1% and they put a floor under your return in case bank rates drop. Should rate rise, you can cash out and buy a higher yielding CD.

Many foreign and global bond funds hedge currency. The thinking, as espoused by Vanguard, is that one buys fixed income outside of the US to reduce volatility, and exposure to different currencies runs counter to this.

In theory, this diversification can help reduce a portfolio’s volatility without necessarily decreasing its total return. ... The key to realizing the diversification potential of global bonds is to hedge the currency exposure back to the investor’s local currency.

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGLBD.pdf
M* reports 31 distinct hedged world bond funds. (Remember that "world" includes both foreign and global.) Among others, these include FGBFX, HFATX, PGBIX, PFORX, VTABX, and of course PRSNX. M* lists 53 unhedged (or partially hedged) world bond funds, including MDWIX, DODLX, LSGLX, MGBAX, GTRAX, PIGLX, PFUIX, TGCFX.
M* similarly splits emerging market bond funds. Ones denominated in local currency include TGWIX, EEIAX, and PELBX. There are 72 dollar denominated EM bond funds including FNMIX, HXIAX (Asian fund, NTF at TDA), MCRDX, TRECX, VEMBX, VGAVX, and your MAINX.
There are always going to be a few funds that don't quite fit into a category. If there are enough of them, they can be grouped together into an "other" category. M* does this for foreign funds. That's where you'll find the only Korean fund (MAKOX) lumped in with two emerging Europe funds (TREMX, EUROX), the only Russian fund (LETRX) in case those emerging emerging Europe funds aren't narrowly focused enough for you, and so on.
Obviously you can't compare these funds with each other. What's the alternative? The emerging Europe funds could be tossed in with diversified emerging markets. That's what Lipper did. It's arguably a little better, but not really. This is the approach M* took with the Asian bond funds. On the other hand Lipper put them into three different categories: International Income (HXIAX), Alternative Credit Focus (MCRDX), and Emerging Market Hard Currency (MAINX).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4353473-vanguard-short-term-treasury-etf-offers-safety-low-yield
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF Offers Safety But With A Low Yield
/For investors that want a higher return with low credit risk, you may have to seek funds that have higher exposure to investment-grade corporate bonds/
Good etf to consider for this environment

PRSNX is labeled by Morningstar as "World Bond/Dollar hedged." Dunno how many others there are in THAT category. It "feels" like an orphan to me in that regard--- like MAINX, listed as EM bonds, but it is actually geographically limited to Asia only: a sub-category of a category. I can't rely on the performance-percentile numbers on those two. You can't even get a handle on the size and shape of the pie. I'm adjusting to the big-feeling daily moves up and down from BRUFX, since share price is over $500.00. Before today's numbers get recorded, my only fund in the black is PTIAX, up just a fraction YTD. Although below the break-even mark, my others are not doing terribly. PRDSX is my worst, -9.7%. But it's just 1.78% of the portfolio.

You're being quite reasonable with a 2% target. Without substantial junk or going long (except for corporates and world hedged), it's not that hard to find solid bond funds with SEC yields at least that high. I've identified a reasonable representative for a number of different bond fund categories:
Corporate Bond (Lipper Corporate BBB): FCBFX (BBB, 7.79 year eff duration), 2.43% yield
Intermediate Core (Lipper Core): VCOBX (A, 6.04 duration), 2.02% yield
Intermediate Core (Lipper US Mortgage): OMBAX (BBB, 2.91 duration), 2.38% yield
Intermed Core Plus (Lipper Core Plus): BCOIX (A, 5.56 duration), 2.28% yield
Intermed Gvmt (Lipper GNMA): PRGMX (AAA, 1.50 duration), 2.63% yield
Short Term (Lipper Short Inv Grade): USSBX (BBB, 1.95 duration), 3.30% yield
Ultra Short (Lipper Ultra Short): TRBUX (BBB, 1.00 duration), 2.31% yield
World Bond (Lipper Global Inc.): DODLX (BBB, 3.20 duration), 3.62% yield
World Hedged (Lipper Global Inc.): FGBFX (AAA, 7.17 duration), 3.04% yield
ISTM there are four basic levers for bonds: credit rating/risk, duration, leverage, and options (more generally, derivatives). I've avoided leverage, tried to keep duration moderate to low, and credit rating above junk.
Options present not only a risk, but a risk in estimating the risk. Even for GNMA funds. Unlike vanilla bonds and vanilla funds, the effective duration shown for bonds with options are not exact calculations but are based on models that may fail at the worst times. These models make the effective durations shorter than for comparable vanilla bonds. In addition, the options (ability to pay off early or extend a mortgage past what a model predicts) tend to make the convexity close to zero or even negative. That means that when interest rates move, the effect on the prices of these bonds is worse than than on prices of vanilla bonds.
My point here is that one shouldn't just compare PRGMX to BCOIX and think the choice is a no brainer (higher rating, lower duration, higher yield). IMHO every fund above is worth a look depending on what one wants. But each one has a different risk profile (and a different amount of uncertainty in that risk). It's not just yield that matters, but total return and time frame.

I concur. Many companies retracted their earning forecast as there are too much uncertainty in their business. Powell's statement is sobering that indicates a quick V-shape recovery is unlikely this year.
@bee, thank you for sharing your list. I have many disappointment this year. Few brighter spots:
VFIIX, +3.7%
VGIGX, +6.8%
VBMFX, +5.1%
VHIGX, +8.8%
VGT, +10.9%
plus the same balanced funds you have as well.

PTIAX was up today. My other bond funds were down. Once upon a time, stocks and bonds were expected to behave differently from each other, eh? PTIAX holds 26% munis. They have to be HY munis, though, with coupons---many of them--- above 5% and one that I see is at 8%...... Otherwise, 58% "securitized." That 58% number happens to be the proportion of bonds in my portfolio, too. Portf. down -2.15% today. It hurts, but it would hurt more if I panic-sell in the morning..... Interesting times!

I like Tad Rivelle. own TSI, but I looked at 3/31/20 report....I don't have any clue how they can have a 18% dividend.
25% of portfolio is cash/treasuries so that's like 1-2% tops. Maybe some bond gurus on this site can figure out this mystery?

Howdy Shost,
Hope you're doing well.
The new prediction is 200K by September. The problem is that doesn't take into account the continued opening and events. The explosion in AZ is traceable to the Memorial Day holiday. In another week to 10 days we'll see another outbreak due to the protest movements and demonstrations. DT is starting his events on Juneteenth in Tulsa so we'll see a 2 week lag outbreak all over those parts. [BTW as an aside the republican party is making everyone sign a virus waiver that wants to attend].
These are the easy ones. How about back to school, sporting events and how about the election. Geez, if they waited up to 14 hours in GA to vote in a steeenking primary, letting the whole world know that they will crawl to 100 miles of shit to vote in November. They'll fight through the virus, the poll closures, the disenfranchisement ALL OF IT to vote that SOB out of office.
Add it all up and I'm figuring the death total will be 500K by the end of the year.
As for the economy, every one of these spikes will cause people to stay cautious, minimize spending, and continue to hunker down. That will cause the economy to continue in the dumps, in turn causing the crazies to call for more opening up, in turn causing the cautious to disengage more. Economic death spiral.
Sorry, but
and so it goes,
peace,
ronoi

Thanks, msf
So they aren't making ROC payments. Just very good performance due to low AUM? Seems like a lot of funds have good initial performance due to low AUM. Makes me wonder why a closed end fund like TSI or DBL can't maintain great performance when they're only around 250 million in AUM. 250 is still a lot more than 12 million though.

Hi guys: I'll post more on the barometer tomorrow but with market close today and thus far this week I have the S&P 500 Index down -7.1% from Monday's close of 3232 to today's close of 3002. Even with this decline the barometer based upon it's metrics scores the Index as extremely overbought with a reading of 133. Summer is here and generally stocks go soft during the summer months. Plus earnings are looking soft as well. But, there is the Fed buying assets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overheated-momentum-doomed-stock-market-155204976.html
Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to
June 11, 2020, 10:52 AM CDT
/Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to Quick Reversal
(Bloomberg) -- In a stock market inundated with retail investors rushing in to buy anything that moves, the swift reversal we’re seeing was more or less inevitable./
Is this a fierce corrections Will we see DOWS 18k levels again?...we are at where we were 2 wks ago

By Old_Skeet's mythology the S&P 500 Index is gextremely overbought. I'm now leaning towards trimming my equity allocation now that I'm pretty close to getting back towards even.
Can stocks go hgher? Absoutely. And, I hope they do!

Looks like the @Old_Skeet’s overbought/oversold methodology is trumping the “infallible” “undefeated record” of the Zweig breath thrust indicator

Hi Junkster,
Great to see you posting! I do hope you continue.
I understand that FD1000 sold everything the other day. Of course, he knew what today was going to bring ;-)
Mona

This fund has had incredibly strong performance since opening in Nov of 2018, up 27.8% since inception. I can't figure out how the yield is so high, 18%.
It has about 57% in investment grade bonds, mostly mortgages and corporate credit, no EM, a duration of 2.67, an average bond price of $94.11 and 23% in cash. Non of that indicates anything risky. It only dropped about 5% in March and is up 7% YTD.
Are they doing a "return of capital"? Is it because their asset base of 12 million is so small? They have a small amount in a few derivatives but nothing close to what Pimco uses. Seems to good to be true, what am I missing?

We all have some sort of “barometer”: Internal guidance, hunches, an index we watch, technicals, a plan written down, prior experience or maybe a “guru” we follow. @Junkster, who I’ve enjoyed following a long time, seems to rely heavily on some technical indicators. Currently under discussion is the Zweig Indicator. I’m “late to school” when it comes to technicals. Even today I view them with a bit of skepticism, telling myself they’re probably better indicators of market psychology than anything else. Given that, in this era of investing, psychology - if not the name of the game - is very important however you cut it.
I enjoy Ol’Skeet’s comprehensive write-ups very much. All of us can take a cue from his meticulous planning and devotion to his value metrics. Is he always right? Don’t know. My recollection says “no.” So I went back and looked at what he wrote on March 20. That had to be very close to the recent bottom. Remember it because I made a small purchase of DODGX that day.
“The barometer as of market close Thursday maintains its reading of 180 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold. I am also detecting that a bottom is forming as three of the data feeds and influences that the barometer use are green lighting.” (March 20, 2020)
So good call back than Ol’Skeet.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55474/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-spring-reporting-and-my-positioning/p2

Hi @Junkster, I hope you are well and things are rolling good for you with your new endeavor.
Can you tell us more about this endeavor? From what you have written, thus far, it sounds interesting.
On the barometer ...
One of the three main feeds found in the barometer is an earnings feed for the S&P 500 Index. From a report that I follow, generated by S&P, ttm earnings for the Index are forecast to fall over the next four months, or so, from May at about the $107 range down to September to about the $94.00 range. Looks like a recession? But, generally the stock market leads! Let's hope that it continues upward and that it does not follow earnings in another swift downdraft.
Another reason that the barometer reflected an overbought nearterm condition is that 97% of the stocks within the Index were recently trading above their 50 day moving average. Where is there much nearterm upside left? Perhaps, there is as only 60% of the stocks in the Index are above their 200 day moving average. Let's hope the upward momentum continues.
And, so it goes ...
The barometer reflected information that I used to increase my allocation to equities weeks ago. Now, it is suggesting that I lighten up. Which I am in the process of doing. And, with this, I plan to sell down (not completely out) my equity allocation into this upward stock market movement.
Indeed, it is interesting about the Zweig Indicator you have referenced that many traders have used in the past with good success. I'm not knocking it. However, for me, I'm a long term investor (more so than a trader) that tweaks their equity allocation from time-to-time around my barometer readings. When the barometer reading is high indicating an oversold condition is present I buy equities and when the barometer reading is low indicating an overbought reading is present I sell equities. Pretty simple ... but, effective.
Thus far, I've never had anybody equate my system to the Zweig Thrust Indicator. Perhaps, I don't understand the Zweig Thrust Indicator or perhaps ... even more so ... you don't fully understand my system.
Please know, I wish you the very best and your continued success.
Old_Skeet