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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • November Commentary is live!
    Make use of stable-value (SV) within 401k/403b/457. Good options at TIAA, OK at Federal TSP & elsewhere.
    Don't overlook I-Bonds although limited in amounts - but $30k/yr possible for an average US family of 3.15.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    A pity that this guy has to be hocking his investment program around Grantham's advice. The question of when we have a crash is hard, perhaps impossible, to answer. Grantham's been right a few times timing wise--2000 especially--but wrong a lot lately. I'm more interested in figuring out what kind of crash it might be, what will trigger it, how to recognize it once it's begun, how much of a decline it could be, how long it might last, and what to do when it happens. GMO's 7-year Inflation-Adjusted Forecast:
    image
  • Asset transfers to Vanguard
    People should of course be careful. But realistically, some 3rd party may be involved in such back-office/processing fin-tech stuff. Not every institutions will have in-house/internal capabilities on this fin-tech. So, it comes down to the trust one has in the 2 institutions involved.
    I use Zelle and don't think it is a solution. Zelle transactions are limited by banks to $200-2,000 (small potatoes). Transactions/mistakes are NOT reversible/fixable - and users accepted that condition on sign up. Try sending $100K or $1 million by Zelle (-:).
  • SS increase: what to do
    We got our boosters at our local CVS. They schedule appts 15 minutes apart and their process went flawlessly for us who happened to get ours on two different days, so we saw it happen twice there. That said, the pharmacist who we've known for years did express a lot of angst though over how taxing the process is on their staffing.
  • Fidelity's Joel Tillinghast to retire from active management in 2023
    I think @stillers meant to post this PV chart, LINK .
    Yes, YBB, that is the PV Chart I was trying to link. Thanks!
    And anyone who happened to look at the LINK I incorrectly posted might just want to take a look at the LINK YBB correctly posted for me.
  • Asset transfers to Vanguard
    I have had good luck (and speed) to transfer asset to/out of Vanguard. Typically, it takes about 10 days from start to finish. The most time consuming part is having to mail in the form to Vanguard. T. Rowe Price requires signature guarantee from a bank and credit union which takes another day to complete.
  • 10 Mistakes...
    13 years is long enough to make a few investors rich along the way. Who are the current Peter Lynches in their 3rd or 4th innings?
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    I guess he’s been spilling his guts on CNBC. But CNBC has become impossible to link or view without a paid subscription. (Interview referenced was in late September)
    Here’s a decent article summarizing Grantham’s comments.
    Here’s a 10-minute discussion / analysis based on a few clips from the CNBC interview. The presenter is decent - but clearly promoting his internet based investor service,.

    My advice would be to exercise due diligence and look at your holdings one by one. I’m mostly a bottom feeder, so tend to own things that are pretty beaten up and out of favor. The biggest exception I could find is my commodities fund, BRCAX, up 32% for one year. However, looking back 5 and 10 years the fund has only garnered single digit returns. And, as @BenWP will testify, my single largest holding, TMSRX, appears to be anything but a euphoric bubble. :)
    Bonds are a bit troubling. Not sure what kind of duration my allocation funds have, but my direct bond fund holdings are intermediate term (generally 2-5 years). My issue here with Grantham (and other experts) is that I think if equities hit the bricks, the economy will grind to a near halt and intermediate / long bonds will rise in value - albeit for a brief period. But - might be wrong.
    However, I agree with most of what Grantham says and respect his knowledge. For defense, I’ve been looking at various defensive funds. None is a “panacea”. All are problematic in some way - - perhaps the reason he stresses cash for defense.
  • Fidelity's Joel Tillinghast to retire from active management in 2023
    @stillers - it auto defaults to 1985 but the results themselves are constrained by the earliest fund in the comparison. Because I chose SPY vs. Vanguard 500 Index, it started from 1994 vs. 1990 if I had chosen Vanguard. Nevertheless (as opposed to nonetheless)- the results are just impressive all the same. The graphs look a bit different on PV vs. Stock Charts but the results are the same. FWIW I own 2 of the 3 funds mentioned and couldn't be happier. Let's hope the good times continue to roll. Cheers.
    Edit Add: May nothing ever change with FDGRX. Has been just stellar for me for many years.
  • Fidelity's Joel Tillinghast to retire from active management in 2023
    @catch22 yes the PV chart looks a bit different but those funds are impressive all the same.
    JT and Peter Lynch are the two PMs most responsible for my early retirement.
    Not sure why your PV link uses 1985-2021. FLPSX incepted 12/27/89. So I changed the Start Year to 1990.
    Also, your use of SPY as a Benchmark is noted on the results to limit its data to 01/90-10/21. So I changed the Benchmark to the VG 500 Index.
    Here are the revised, far more impressive results that compare FLPSX to the three other funds since FLPSX's inception, a time at which my wife and I had it and Magellan as our only two funds. We shortly thereafter parted with Magellan.
    EDIT: Deleted previous LINK. Having trouble getting the correct link posted here. See LINK at YBB's post below. Thanks YBB!
  • Vanguards estimates
    Those large differences in yearend distributions do look strange.
    The VG TDF and VG Institutional TDF series are distinct (i.e., not classes of same portfolios), but they have similar glide-paths and portfolio managements except for different ERs, minimums and client bases. I looked at turnovers, and strangely, Institutional TDF have higher turnover.
    My guess is that large difference in yearend distributions may be related to the merger of regular VG TDF and VG Institutional TDF by 02/2022. Their tax-cost ratios may be different. Unfortunately, the news related to the merger is silent on this aspect.
    https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Press-Release-Vanguard-to-Lower-Investor-Costs-by-an-Estimated-190M-Through-Enhancements-to-TRFs-092821.html
  • Vanguards estimates
    When looking at retirement funds, investor & institutional , why the large difference in % dividend ?
    VITVX 2.87% VS VTXVX 9.75% 2015 year.
    VITWX 1.93 % VS VTWNX 13.94% 2020 year
    Thanks, Derf
  • Needham Small Cap Growth

    NESIX is also available at T Rowe Price brokerage for a minimum of $1000 and NTF.

    Is there any way of seeing what funds TRP offers NTF without having a brokerage account?
    That's a good question. Not to my knowledge, unfortunately. But in the last 12 months it seems TRP has expanded the number of funds available and increased considerably the number of funds available with NTF. This year I was able to buy three funds that were unavailable last year and two more that were available but had transaction fees. All five I was able to buy with NTF.
    You are welcome to PM me a list of funds (or note them below) and I will check for you. Certain fund families like Fidelity, Vanguard, and Dodge & Cox have always had a $35 fee at TRP.
  • U.S. Retail Sales Jump by Most Since March …
    We probably haven’t noticed these food price increases because we eat only plant-based foods. I did hear an anecdote on the news about a rib roast costing $100 this year. Shortages in the stores are definitely affecting our shopping, however.
  • Needham Small Cap Growth

    NESIX is also available at T Rowe Price brokerage for a minimum of $1000 and NTF.
    Is there any way of seeing what funds TRP offers NTF without having a brokerage account?
  • Fidelity's Joel Tillinghast to retire from active management in 2023
    You are highlighting Fidelity’s best active managers. Can you imagine what these funds would perform with a smaller asset, say 10% of the current level?
  • U.S. Retail Sales Jump by Most Since March …
    Not to disagree profusely. But spend 30 minutes in a grocery store. Check out the meat prices. (I suppose one can alway eat cake.)
    Meatflation
    Excerpt -“Amid a higher than expected 6.2% increase in consumer prices in October compared to the same month last year, the price of meat, poultry, fish and eggs rose 11.9%, the fastest increase since December 1990, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday, with beef prices up 20.1% and pork up 14.1%, adding to concerns …”
    Is this food inflation only transitory? Related to chip shortages, or tie ups at ports, or truck drivers smoking pot and losing their CDLs?