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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

Why the S&P 500’s bull-market run probably is only getting started
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-s-p-500s-bull-market-run-probably-is-only-getting-started-11614820819
Why the S&P 500’s bull-market run probably is only getting started
*It’s been a year since the pandemic first blindsided the U.S., turning many jobs, forms of schooling and ways of socializing into stay-at-home events.
But it’s only about 11 months since the new bull market for the S&P 500 started.*
With the c19 appears improved, unemployment data stabilize, housing also stabilize, hope for brighter future and sustainable bull market

johnN March 2021 in Other Investing
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
Very recently, the 10-year T has been the hot topic. Rising rates, so other stuff gets shuffled around or actually suffers, performance-wise. I like to take a long-term view, for planning purposes. I do my homework, choosing funds. Bond funds I own:
PTIAX 5.03% over the past 5 years, and 5.5% over the past 10 yrs.
PRSNX 6.03% past 5 yrs, and 4.7% = past 10 years.
RPSIX 5.66% = 5 years and 4.6%= 10 years.
********************************************
Bonds are not stocks. Whether up or down, they don't typically roil the portfolio, the way some specialty stock funds do. I like them because they are doing quite nicely even IN a near-zero interest rate environment. I won't ever hold complicated instruments like double-inverse options. I like plain vanilla. The last time I was able to find a simple, plain vanilla bond offering at a rate over 5.5% was in 2003, when I bought a 10-year Israel "zero," purchased and denominated in dollars. Nearly doubled my money, in 2013, when it matured. I won't buy them anymore due to Israeli political policies. And last time I checked, they're not offering those good rates anymore, anyhow.

Crash March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Digging into Ark Innovation's Portfolio
This list is today closing info, March 3. The list is generally available about 6:30pm, EST. The last two numbers in each line are numbers of shares buy/sell and % of that particular holding within the ETF.
1 ARKF 03/3/2021 Buy KSPILI 48581R205 KASPI.KZ JSC 2,651 0.0042
2 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy VEEV 922475108 VEEVA SYSTEMS INC 75,900 0.2060
3 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy TXG 88025U109 10X GENOMICS INC 49,218 0.0839
4 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy SRPT 803607100 SAREPTA THERAPEUTICS INC 87,700 0.0762
5 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy RPTX 760273102 REPARE THERAPEUTICS INC 16,969 0.0053
6 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy ONEM 68269G107 1LIFE HEALTHCARE INC 169,564 0.0750
7 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy MASS 65443P102 908 DEVICES INC 126,362 0.0635
8 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy BFLY 124155102 BUTTERFLY NETWORK INC 390,584 0.0650
9 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy CMLF 18978W109 CM LIFE SCIENCES INC 332,617 0.0604
10 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy CDXS 192005106 CODEXIS INC 16,991 0.0035
11 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy ACCD 00437E102 ACCOLADE INC 93,700 0.0411
12 ARKG 03/3/2021 Buy ADPT 00650F109 ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLOGIES CORP 244,014 0.1219
13 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell GOOGL 02079K305 ALPHABET INC 10,400 0.2056
14 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell BMY 110122108 BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO 198,865 0.1171
15 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell RHHBY 771195104 ROCHE HOLDING AG 515,538 0.2047
16 ARKG 03/3/2021 Sell PSTI 72940R300 PLURISTEM THERAPEUTICS INC 120 0.0000
17 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy TDOC 87918A105 TELADOC HEALTH INC 226,209 0.2047
18 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy FATE 31189P102 FATE THERAPEUTICS INC 148,508 0.0577
19 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy EXAS 30063P105 EXACT SCIENCES CORP 62,847 0.0362
20 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy BLI 084310101 BERKELEY LIGHTS INC 305,000 0.0795
21 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy U 91332U101 UNITY SOFTWARE INC 142,314 0.0627
22 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy ZM 98980L101 ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS INC 134,399 0.2091
23 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy BEAM 07373V105 BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC 327,030 0.1233
24 ARKK 03/3/2021 Buy PLTR 69608A108 PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC 1,988,500 0.2099
25 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell TSM 874039100 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD 532,806 0.2872
26 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell TCEHY 88032Q109 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD 273,293 0.1073
27 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell NTDOY 654445303 NINTENDO CO LTD 59,162 0.0188
28 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell ICE 45866F104 INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC 97,749 0.0477
29 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell BIDU 056752108 BAIDU INC 267,378 0.3393
30 ARKK 03/3/2021 Sell BEKE 482497104 KE HOLDINGS INC 8,847 0.0024
31 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy U 91332U101 UNITY SOFTWARE INC 173,600 0.5114
32 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy EXPC 30217C109 EXPERIENCE INVESTMENT CORP 84,800 0.0339
33 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy ESLT M3760D101 ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD 2,740 0.0103
34 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Buy AONE G7000X105 ONE 554,800 0.1957
35 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Sell DE 244199105 DEERE & CO 31,474 0.3083
36 ARKQ 03/3/2021 Sell FLIR 302445101 FLIR SYSTEMS INC 160,593 0.2446
37 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy U 91332U101 UNITY SOFTWARE INC 189,900 0.2534
38 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 23,320 0.1986
39 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy TDOC 87918A105 TELADOC HEALTH INC 78,940 0.2095
40 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy PLTR 69608A108 PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC 670,300 0.2079
41 ARKW 03/3/2021 Buy ZM 98980L101 ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS INC 89,672 0.4010
42 ARKW 03/3/2021 Sell NVDA 67066G104 NVIDIA CORP 85,856 0.5689
43 ARKW 03/3/2021 Sell TSM 874039100 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO LTD 316,428 0.5008
44 ARKW 03/3/2021 Sell API 00851L103 AGORA INC 113,066 0.0900

catch22 March 2021 in Fund Discussions
TMSRX - holding its own
BIVRX was up 5.88% for the day; small increases in BRUSX, LLSCX, and GPMCX.

TheShadow March 2021 in Fund Discussions
TMSRX - holding its own
Yep, TMSRX sure looks good. Value, especially small cap, and some foreign did ok today in equities, but looks like just about the last bastion in debt - structured credit - may be stalling out and be on its way down.
This is the third time just recently the S&P 500 has brushed up against the 50 day moving average. Wonder what happens next ... Hussman could finally be a hero.
Edit: munis seemed to do much better than taxable core debt funds today. Two Nuveen munis I keep an eye on were even up a penny, one junk and one intermediate core-plus-ish.

AndyJ March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
NY Times article:
How Green are Electric Vehicles

Mark March 2021 in Other Investing
Wasatch closes some of its funds to third party financial intermediaries
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312521067244/d146109d497.htm
(see link for funds and symbols)
...This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Wasatch Funds Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) for Investor Class and Institutional Class shares dated January 31, 2021. You should retain this Supplement and the SAI for future reference. Additional copies of the SAI may be obtained free of charge by visiting our web site at wasatchglobal.com or calling us at 800.551.1700.
Effective on March 19, 2021, the section “Open/Closed Status of Funds” in the section entitled “General Information and History” on page 3 of the SAI is hereby deleted in its entirety and replaced with the following:
Open/Closed Status of Funds. The Emerging India Fund, Emerging Markets Select Fund, Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund, Global Opportunities Fund, Global Select Fund, Global Value Fund, Greater China Fund, International Growth Fund, International Select Fund, Micro Cap Value Fund, and U.S. Treasury Fund are each open to investors.
The Core Growth Fund, International Opportunities Fund, Micro Cap Fund, Small Cap Growth Fund, Small Cap Value Fund and Ultra Growth Fund are each closed to new purchases, except purchases by new or existing shareholders purchasing directly from Wasatch Funds, existing shareholders purchasing through intermediaries, and current and future shareholders purchasing through financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund. Fund officers may waive or revise the conditions of a closed fund for an intermediary depending on its ability to systematically apply the conditions.
https://wasatchglobal.com/wasatch-small-cap-value-fund-to-close-to-new-investors/
https://wasatchglobal.com/wasatch-micro-cap-fund-to-close-to-new-investors/

TheShadow March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Why do you still own Bond Funds?

@KHaw24
The below chart is for the 4 funds you noted. The backwards view only goes to May, 2015; which indicates one of the funds had it's inception date in May, 2015. These returns are for total return, which includes all distributions. You will note the short period around March of 2020 when the credit markets became locked up, until central bank intervention.
Just below the graph you will see a bar indicating 1,462 days for this chart. You may right click this bar to obtain a default list of other time frames. Example: 1 year. If set at 1 year, you may drag this time frame backwards (left), too. This will let you see a view of these funds performance comparison as you travel backwards.
ALSO, this is an active graph for your own use. You may place and/or replace any of the ticker symbols at the top entry line and then click "go" to built your own chart, which will default to a 200 day view.
You may also toggle between line graph and bar graph for returns when clicking the "red and green" icon at the far left bottom of the time period bar.
CHART
Enjoy,
Catch
Thanks Catch22...neat tool! Much appreciated...

KHaw24 March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Gold down / Settles below the key $1,800 mark in 2nd day of losses
Here’s a link to a good (interactive) chart of gold prices for those so interested. Note the dip last March 20 which aligned with the stock market mini-crash and severe liquidity issues in short term investment grade paper.
FWIW - Nothing makes sense to me with the precious metals, including gold’s seeming correlation with those other markets. A puzzle.
https://www.bullion-rates.com/gold/USD/Year-1-chart.htm
March 4 Update - Gold smashed through the $1700 level today. Currently around $1690. However, the miners are unchanged for the day as of 2:45 PM.

hank March 2021 in Other Investing
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
@JonGaltIII et al
I''m not pushing having bond investments. Too many variables for each individual. The write is about a simple 50/50 of equity and bonds over time.
I offer this real world example starting in 2006, and will provide the past 10 years return.
A 529 educational account was established in 2006 with the state of Utah; using Vanguard funds. One may pick an established blend from aggressive-conservative, as set by choices offered by the 529; or one may "build" there own. Please keep in mind that until a few years ago, one could only change the investments 1 time per year. This limitation is now 2 times per year. So, one is at an almost "set and forget it" mode.
We set our own, being 50/50 with VITPX and VBMPX. The expense ratio for the funds are .02 and .03%. VITPX holds 3,400 equities and VBMPX holds 18,000 bonds. YOW !!!
The 50/50 ratio is required to auto balance once per year. So, the ratio has never traveled to far outside of 50/50.
The 10 year total return for this blend of 2 funds is 8.705%.
I've used FBALX as a benchmark for our own investments to discover how much of a smart arse or dumb arse we may be at any given time. FBALX is high on the list of balanced funds in it's category.
FBALX has a 10 year annualized return of 10.83%.
The overview for us being that the 529 is doing well as a quasi conservative/moderate allocation blend.
Most folks should be very pleased if they can obtain ongoing returns that meet or exceed 8% on an annualized basis. Many trained professionals do not.
Okay. Away soon to have a very small tubular rod placed into the upper arm and move a bit of vaccine into the muscle. #2 it is.

catch22 March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
Buffet's Warning on Owning Bonds:
Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at yearend – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.
Buffett doesn’t really offer any alternatives, except to warn:
Some insurers, as well as other bond investors, may try to juice the pathetic returns now available by shifting their purchases to obligations backed by shaky borrowers. Risky loans, however, are not the answer to inadequate interest rates. Three decades ago, the once-mighty savings and loan industry destroyed itself, partly by ignoring that maxim.
a-bleak-future-for-long-term-government-bonds

bee March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
@KHaw24
The below chart is for the 4 funds you noted. The backwards view only goes to May, 2015; which indicates one of the funds had it's inception date in May, 2015. These returns are for total return, which includes all distributions. You will note the short period around March of 2020 when the credit markets became locked up, until central bank intervention.
Just below the graph you will see a bar indicating 1,462 days for this chart. You may right click this bar to obtain a default list of other time frames. Example: 1 year. If set at 1 year, you may drag this time frame backwards (left), too. This will let you see a view of these funds performance comparison as you travel backwards.
ALSO, this is an active graph for your own use. You may place and/or replace any of the ticker symbols at the top entry line and then click "go" to built your own chart, which will default to a 200 day view.
You may also toggle between line graph and bar graph for returns when clicking the "red and green" icon at the far left bottom of the time period bar.
CHART
Enjoy,
Catch

catch22 March 2021 in Fund Discussions
10-Year Closing in on 1.5% (OP) - Blows Right Past - Near 5% (30 months later) - Whee!
Treasuries yields, Inflation and the Equity Market:
trillion-treasuries-mystery-is-bedeviling-global-markets

The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index:
Many of us are familiar with the VIX Index, commonly referred to as the “Fear Index”. The VIX Index is a measure of “fear” as that relates to equity markets and typically rises during periods of falling prices, sometimes sharply during more precipitous declines.
Did you know that there is a similar index that measures fear within the bond market? That index was developed by Merrill Lynch and is referred to as the “MOVE” Index. The index rises as concerns grow that interest rates are on the march higher. The index will rise more sharply when there are fears in the market that rates may be headed significantly higher as was the case during the 2013 Taper Tantrum.
https://raymondjames.com/davidolnick/david-chart-of-the-week/2016/11/18/the-move-index
ICE buys Bank of America Merrill Lynch fixed income volatility indices:
ice-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-indices
Tracking MOVE:
https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=MOVE:PSE

bee March 2021 in Other Investing
Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
The road to carbon neutral may require carbon to be driven forward...

At a time when most major companies are working on plans to cut their carbon emissions, one of the darlings of green investing is working to increase its emissions footprint.
You read that right. Thanks to its explosive expansion in China and a planned car plant in India, Tesla Inc. is in the process of not just increasing the total sum of its emissions—a pretty inevitable consequence of growth in our current carbonized world—but increasing the amount of pollution each of its vehicles generates, too.
Bloomberg Opinion Piece:
tesla-should-come-clean-on-the-real-emissions-of-its-cars

bee March 2021 in Other Investing
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
@catch22 I should have qualified it with "compared to the S&P 500 index". Not necessarily a fair comparison - just a competely different strategy. Invest in equity vs. bonds. Appreciate the responses to this thread and learning different rationale. I'll let others provide some chart its.
Someone recently sent me a link to a discussion Dave Ramsey was having on "not holding bond funds" and what he believes about proper allocation. I think it's worth a listen (even as it's simplistic and controversial) - he draws a correlation between average life expectancy and what those bond funds can/can't do for you between retirement 65-90 years of age: htt
ps://youtu.be/yqMCTSnJ6Y4?t=5169 I would argue that his "growth and income fund" does indeed contain some bonds.
Note: I added two spaces between htt and p so that you could copy and paste. When it embeds in this post - it doesn't fast forward to the spot in the clip where he talks about allocation.

JonGaltIII March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Tax Q - Remember you have two different basis-ies for the average cost method.
Calculating gain on the sale of mutual fund shares is not as hard as it may appear to be. There are just two questions to answer: "you need to determine which shares were sold and the basis of those shares."
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p550#en_US_2019_publink1000250005
If one uses average basis, there is no choice in which shares were sold. They are sold oldest first.
If one uses what the IRS calls "cost basis", i.e. actual cost of the shares, then one must say which shares one is selling and for each of those shares state its cost basis (actual cost). It doesn't matter whether those shares are covered or noncovered, their cost basis is what you paid for them. Pretty straightforward, unless you previously sold some shares using average basis.
There are three ways to state which shares you are selling:
- By enumeration - stating explicitly which shares you're selling,
- Algorithmically - giving a rule to enumerate the shares, e.g. highest cost first (HCFO), or
- Oldest first (FIFO) - this is just the default algorithm that's used if you didn't specify a different algorithm. So in a sense it isn't even a third way of saying which shares you're selling.
Where things might get a bit tricky is where, as @BenWP did, you sell some shares using an algorithm to enumerate those shares, and then later sell more shares. You have to know which shares were sold previously to know which shares you've got left now to sell.
At least you have a paper trail of the shares you sold previously, because you had to report that on your 1040 when you sold them. So just cross them off your list of shares and whatever is left is what you're able to sell going forward.
To reiterate, covered vs noncovered has no effect on basis if you are consistently using cost basis (actual cost) and not average basis (average cost).
msf March 2021 in Technical Questions
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
Bond funds are essential to most portfolios unless you have the stomach for watching your life savings cut by 50% at any given point in time (as per VTI). Of course as interest rates rise many bond funds won't do well but some will do just fine (e.g., DHHIX, FAGIX). So, in part it depends on what you mean by "bond fund." I like to hold about half in funds (mostly high yield) that will largely follow equities but with less SD, and half with things that will lose as interest rates rise but will likely act as a counterbalance to an equity decline (e.g GIBLX). Also, not to state the obvious, but the idea that interest rates must go up has been a losers bet for years. I saw Minerd on CNBC yesterday who is rather confident interest rates will be going down, a lot. No investment can work in every environment and trying to time which will work best and when has also been a sucker's play for the most part.

wxman123 March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
Hi @JonGaltIII

but for the last 10 + years it was a bad mistake
I'll play "chart it". Give me 5 bond fund tickers that you're not happy about over the past 10 years. They don't have to be anything you hold or have held. What would you prefer to be charted as a baseline, the comparative? A balanced fund, a blended equity fund?
And yes indeed, there have been and will be bond funds that are never properly managed or the mandate tended to be out of favor for too long.
Not any different than equity funds that look good as a concept but timing or management get things wrong.
'Course, what one is attempting to do with a bond fund is critical, too; relative to a total portfolio.
Take care,
Catch

catch22 March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Why do you still own Bond Funds?
I’m just slow to change. 20 years ago bond funds comprised 30% of my portfolio. Than 10 years ago it went to 25%. This year I cut it to 20%. Oh - I’ll get down to 0 eventually ...
Of course, if you sell those bond funds you need to move the $$ into something else. So those much smarter than me here can comment on where to move that money. I’m not convinced cash today will beat even the very low returns of short duration bonds.
Yes - you can bury your money in a tin can in the back yard. I suppose. Or, on a wing and a prayer , you can throw everything at stocks - even though you’re nearing 80. Stretching out the time horizon is an option. Maybe to 95? Or 110? Doing so would allow you to maintain a higher level of portfolio risk.

hank March 2021 in Fund Discussions
Ignoring Energy Transition Realities as We Greenify
Aside from the environmental waste disposal problem and labor/community radiation exposure problem, the cost advantages of nuclear don't appear to be there. From the previous link:
Existing nuclear plants have relatively low operation, maintenance, and fuel costs compared to many fossil fuel plants; however these routine costs still make nuclear power economically uncompetitive in comparison with natural gas, wind, and solar.
New nuclear plants are another matter altogether; their continuing high construction costs make them uneconomical. Between 2002 and 2008, cost estimates for new nuclear plant construction rose from between $2 billion and $4 billion per unit to $9 billion per unit, according to a 2009 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists. In reality, even those astronomical projections have been surpassed. The two new units at the Vogtle Plant in Georgia, the only new nuclear construction in the United States, are now years behind schedule and projected to cost more than twice their original budget of $14 billion. Similarly, it was estimated that Duke Energy’s proposed Levy County Nuclear Power Plant in Florida would cost $5 billion, but projections ballooned to $22 billion. The project was canceled in 2017, and Duke Energy decided to focus on solar energy expansion instead.
Reactors also typically require a long period of planning, licensing, and building. The 2019 World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) estimates that since 2009 the average construction time for nuclear reactors worldwide was just under 10 years.
The WSINR report also estimates that the cost of generating nuclear energy ranges between $112 and $189 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while solar power costs between $36 and $44 and onshore wind power comes in at $29 to $56.

LewisBraham March 2021 in Other Investing