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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SAGAX FUND THOUGHTS?
    Here's what I can share from owning ZVNBX, one of the two Zevenbergen funds -- the other N class being ZVGNX.
    The fund managers are very focused and articulate about their reasons for owning a concentrated portfolio of two large cap growth funds, the outcome of running separate managed accounts for 30 and 26 years in these products.
    In general, the main difference between ZVNBX and ZVGNX (Genea) is that the latter is focused on founder-led companies (Musk, Bezos), does not own any health care companies, and is invested in more companies that are, let's say, very early in the curve.
    Some nuts and bolts:
    From a revenue side, their initial hurdle rate is owning companies that have a minimum growth rate of 15% but a revenue growth rate of between 25-30%, and if they can't grow at that rate, they consider selling. They want to own companies whose business model can sustain that growth rate for 1-3-5-10 years, those companies they consider durable.
    (An example of a company they own is NOW (Service NOW), a tech company. It recently said that they expect $7.4T in digital transformation in the next three years.)
    These funds can be volatile, and so investor returns lag investment returns, which they often do in many funds, as most of us know. Overall, however, they have had positive inflows since inception.
    The average portfolio turnover since inception has been 30%.
    Platform availability continues to expand. Having two LCG funds has not been as easy to market, and the firm has a small marketing budget. In mid-April total AUM was about $65M despite being in existence for less than 5 years. It's $95M now.
    Schwab offers both N classes NTF for a purchase of $100.
    While M* classifies the funds as LCG, they consider the funds all-cap. They can drive attribution in the small and mid cap space as well.
    These offerings are worth investor awareness, additional thoughts, and what the initial poster is asking.
  • Just when you think the market is overpriced
    One of the most infallible and rare momentum indicator is triggered and says stocks will be much higher six months down the road. Wish I had posted this yesterday as the indicator kicked in close of Wednesday. But I couldn’t believe my data and called a technical market guru yesterday to see if my data was correct. He said yep, the indicator sure did kick in. Anyway Marty Zweig’s ten day advance/decline ratio greater than 2 to 1 kicked in.
    The way you compute this as shown in Marty’s book Winning On Wall Street is simply take the total 10 day NYSE advances and the total 10 day declines. Whenever that is greater than 2 to 1 you have a momentum buy thrust. You wouldn’t think this that rare but in his updated book you only had 11 instances of this occurring between 1953 and 1996. In all 11 instances the market was higher six months later and by an average of 15.2%.
    Since the book and since the last signal listed in the book we have had two additional signals. March 2009 and as I discussed previously last year, January 2019. Those six months gains were higher than 15.2%. Unfortunately this indicator has been bastardized a bit by a computer formula and that formula shows another two signals. But when I went back and checked those signals did not qualify as described by Marty.
    Marty’s double 9 to 1 up volume/ down volume indicator kicked in one day after the recent March low. I was surprised to see this other indicator kick in after an already 40% rise in the markets. Like everyone else I have never seen a market so detached from economic realty. So will be interesting if we keep marching higher for yet another 6 months or this time around the indicator fails. I have always been a disbeliever in traditional technical analysis and its associated mumbo jumbo. Yet always had the utmost respect and fully utilized Marty’s two momentum indicators most especially his up/down volume indicator.
  • SAGAX FUND THOUGHTS?
    You could purchase one of the Zevenbergen Funds (Growth or Genea) investor class for $2,500.00 which is the same for the "A" class of Virtus Zevenbergen Innovative Growth Fund minus the load (maybe different if using a brokerage). Both Growth and Genea are large cap growth funds.
    While the funds, e.g. SAGAX and ZVNBX, appear to be clones, there are small differences. The Virtus version is an order of magnitude as large, though still small: $504M vs. $46M. The holdings are slightly different, even in their top ten. The Virtus version has higher turnover (91% vs. 29%), while sporting a slightly lower ER (1.25% vs. 1.30%). I find that somewhat surprising, since submanaged funds typically add a layer of cost.
    (Vanguard funds being an exception since Vanguard drives a hard bargain with money mangers, e.g. Vanguard Primecap Core (VPCCX) at 0.46% vs Primecap Odyssey (POSKX) at 0.65%)
    Given the very growthy nature of the Zevenbergen funds and their highly concentrated portfolios (33-35 stocks), I agree that these are high octane funds. Looking at SAGAX's 2008-2010 performance (see chart) it is clear that this is an aggressive fund that can suffer big (over 50%) losses that are greater than those of its peers.
    Where I might part company with Skeet is in calling this a momentum fund. Momentum funds typically have high turnover. It's hard to see a 29% turnover fund following a momentum strategy.
  • (RE-DO), still crazy and playing again.....(NOT) Exited AAA gov't bonds
    What next to replace bonds?
    Yes, please respond to @Sven.
    I find it encouraging that the 10-year Treasury is over .90% this morning after dipping below .50% briefly in March-April. My understanding of the rate curve is quite limited, but I’d expect returns on very short term investment grade bonds will start improving if this trend continues. So, for those needing to “park” money short-term or wishing to pull risk off the table, it’s a healthy development.
    Ed, in last month’s Commentary, referenced using a “barbell“ investment approach. Never been my cup of tea, but with cash yielding so little it also makes sense to me. With a barbell (my crude understanding) an investor loads up on both ends. On one end are riskier assets like equities and on the other end are investment grade securities with the duration to be set by the investor. Personally, I’ve favored the 3-10 year duration bond funds, but have some limited spec positions (thru RPSIX) on the conservative end of the barbell as well.
    If using the barbell, one may exit low yielding cash positions and assume that should the risk assets fall, some increase in value at the conservative (bond end) will mitigate the damage.
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    More data from NPR. Looks like these number reflect workers who were furloughed as their business closed down temporarily. Now the business are opening back up. Let's hope this does not trigger a second wave of COVID infection.
    https://npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/05/869821293/as-america-struggles-to-return-to-work-staggering-unemployment-numbers-loom
  • May Jobs Report Stronger than Expected / PUNDITS!
    Poor Mohammad El-Erian - just one of a parade of gloomy morose prognosticators Bloomberg has frequently featured on air over the past two or three months. Not to pick on just El-Erian, Larry Summers is another gloomy predictor they’ve rolled out since the market encountered a downdraft in March. Here’s El-Erian in April .
    Hilarious watching El-Erian try to do some sort of mid-course correction this morning after the hot (warmer?) data came out. Sounds like he’s pushing short / intermediate investment grade corporates at this point. Points to the dangers of trying to base long term investment decisions on these types of pronouncements. Truth is: Nobody knows where the global economy will be in a year - let alone 5 or 10 years. If you can’t have a 5-10 year time horizon, you shouldn’t be in equities & most risk assets at all.
    Purely local and anecdotal - but in northern Mi it’s almost impossible getting construction / remodeling done this summer. Builders are backed up for months. I suspect a lot of money that would have gone to the airlines and hospitality businesses this summer is being pumped into home improvement projects instead. Tourism locally is down, but improving. Big box stores are crowded. Waited half an hour in a check-out line this week.
    Link to May Jobs Report Story:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/u-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-fell-in-may-as-hiring-rebounded
  • SAGAX FUND THOUGHTS?
    You could purchase one of the Zevenbergen Funds (Growth or Genea) investor class for $2,500.00 which is the same for the "A" class of Virtus Zevenbergen Innovative Growth Fund minus the load (maybe different if using a brokerage). Both Growth and Genea are large cap growth funds.
    https://www.zci.com/ (Zevenbergen's website)
    Zevenbergen Genea Fund:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=zvgnx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Zevenbergen Growth Fund:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=zvnbx&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Virtus Zevenbergen Innovative Fund:
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=sagax&region=usa&culture=en_US
    Zevenbergen's prospectus as of 10/31/19:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261788/000089418919007092/zevenbergencombined.htm
    Schwab requires an initial minimum of $5K for a regular account for Virtus Zevenbergen Innovation Fund with a load; $100.00 initial minimum investment for the Zevenbergen Funds.
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    Good morning @hank. I take it your buy/sells were in equities that you own or did own ?
    Stay Safe, Derf
    Hi Derf, It was crazy back than. I left enough “tracks” here back in March to provide a pretty good idea (and some verification) what I was doing.
    - The largest move entailed several buys into PIEQX (from cash) which I did not own at the time. It wasn’t viewed as a “money maker”, but rather as a defensive area which I didn’t think would drop much further if held for a few years since Europe & Japan had been stuck in a deep rut going back decades. I’m still holding about 80% of that position, having cut it back just a bit this week.
    - I also alluded back than to adding to DODBX which I did own at the time. The funds came both from DODIX and from RPGAX, a large holding I reduced (and suggested others consider).
    - Smaller investments (not reported than) were made into DODGX and PRLAX after it briefly was down 50% YTD and for one-year as well. I did not own either of those at the time. I’ll occasionally scan T. Rowe’s listings looking for badly beaten up funds to buy (short-intermediate term holds). Hopefully, they appreciate that at least one client is buying a badly floundering fund when most are fleeing. :)
    - Like many here I assume - some rebalancing took place around mid-late March. Without specifying all the funds involved, along with equity-centric funds, those invested in the natural resources areas badly needed some shoring-up. All very small moves compared to the others noted above.
  • David Giroux interview on buying during the selloff
    What’s curious, I think, is how wrapped up in this market turmoil Geroux admits to being at the time. Recall that there were a number of 1,000-point up / down days for the DJI in March. But the down days were stunning in severity and across many sectors. Not only equities. Gold and miners, in particular, suffered a cardiac on several days. Oil fell by $15-20 in about a week’s time. In short, everything was in turmoil.
    As one lone investor traveling at the time and often making buy / sell transactions using a cellular phone, I couldn’t perform the due diligence such transactions normally entail. Instead, it became a case of: “buy now because it looks cheap / make sense of it all later.”
    So if you were managing money at the time, be it only a modest sum parked in an IRA or billions as Giroux is responsible for, it was a hectic period.
  • Hedge funds brace for second stock market plunge
    Hedge funds brace for second stock market plunge
    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c98296d6-00d7-3765-bca4-bf72f3765c55/hedge-funds-brace-for-second.html
    Ft article
    Managers say asset prices have become too detached from bleak fundamentals
    /New York Stock Exchange in Wall Street. There are fears investors may have become too complacent after the recent surge in share prices © AFP via Getty Images
    June 4, 2020 3:00 am by Laurence Fletcher in London
    Hedge funds are getting ready for another slump in stock markets after growing uneasy that surging prices do not reflect the economic problems ahead.
    Some managers fear that equity investors, used to buying the dips during the decade-long bull market that ended in March’s sharp sell-off, have become too complacent about how quickly economies can recover from the coronavirus crisis and how effective stimulus packages from central banks and governments can be.
    The S&P 500 index completed its best 50-day run in history on Wednesday, according to LPL Financial, closing within 8 per cent of its record high of mid-February.
    “The markets are priced to perfection,” said Danny Yong, founding partner at hedge fund Dymon Asia Capital in Singapore. “The stability in equity markets does not reflect the job losses and the insolvencies ahead of us globally.”
    Mr Yong has been buying put options — which protect against market falls by allowing their owner to sell at a pre-determined price — on stock indices and also on currencies sensitive to risk appetite such as the Australian dollar and the Korean won./
    Are you folks buying more equities at this stage?
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    1) my favorite 3 bond categories. Multisector, NonTrad, HY Muni. Since 2019 I also use HY Munis in my IRA, it's unusual but I look at risk/reward, and this category given me good results. Schwab let you buy these funds in IRA (after you acknowledged it) but not Fidelity.
    2) concentration, usually 3 funds but many times one fund over 50% like now.
    3) all my funds must perform well, at least not losing. It's not necessary the best performance but a good risk/reward.
    4) SD=volatility is very high on my list. If any bond fund I own loses more than 0.5% from the last top I start asking why. If it loses 1% from its last top I sell immediately in most cases. Did others in the same category follow? can I find a better fund? the HY Muni bonds are similar but Multi+NonTrad can be unique. IOFIX/EIXIX are different than more typical JMUTX/PUCZX multi.
    5) charts+trends are my friends, they tell me much more what is going now than most articles/opinions/experts.
    6) be flexible, look at markets in general. Are they "normal", crazy?
    special situations call for a different approach.
    Example1: the Fed announced they will increase rates a couple of years ago. Bank loans is usually one of the best categories.
    Example2: we had a meltdown last March, what funds I want to use. I found ANBEX. I haven't used the high-rated bond fund for years.
    7) I'm a trader, this means I may hold weeks/months or switch earlier and it could be a huge % of my portfolio.
  • JP morgan math shows why stocks can keep rallying
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-math-shows-why-u-182018867.html
    /Think the sizzling U.S. stock rally is excessive in an economy frozen by shutdowns? From one perspective, it’s just getting started.
    Giant piles of cash sloshing around the financial system means there’s substantial ammunition yet to push risk assets higher. JPMorgan Chase & Co., meanwhile, sees potential for billions to flow into equities at the expense of bonds to rebalance portfolios. Money-market funds have lured $1.2 trillion this year, while fund managers with $591 billion overall are holding cash at levels rarely seen in history, according to Bank of America Corp.
    All that shows how much firepower investors have to support the market at a time when stock prices look unhinged from fundamentals like corporate profits, and trade frictions between China and the U.S. return to the forefront./
    they were talking about deaths/covid19 destructions and massive downturns/double dip few wks ago
    how times have change.
  • IOFIX/IOFAX marketing materials/prospectus
    Hi @Derf, As you may recall I averaged in and bought during both the downdraft and then the updraft up until S&P 2700 range. After that, I decided to just sit with with my average buy being at 2500 range and enjoy the ride back up.
    I'm not good at picking tops or bottoms. This is why I roll with my base asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity and adjust from there based upon stock market movement. I studied CTFAX for years as to how it positioned during downdrafts and decided to build this concept into my own portfolio through using special equity buys and reducing cash.
    I'm somewhat disappointed that it has now shifted from a risk off / risk on type fund to more of a tactical positioning one. Before, it's low asset allocation before adjusting to the movement of the S&P 500 Index was 10% equity, now it is 50%. I'm thinking, that the managers are believing that equities will now perform better than fixed income. We will see if this adjustment they made was a wise one. I had planned to buy more of it when it was a risk off / risk on type fund. Now that the baseline asset allocation has changed (from 10% equity to 50% equity) I going to just keep present position and see how things go. My first thought was to trim the position; but, for now I'll wait.
    Thanks for making comment.
    Old_Skeet
  • New TSP Funds Coming July 1
    I'll be 116 years old !! I don't think I'll need any TDF with 2065 on ot !! LOL !!
    stay Safe, Derf
  • New TSP Funds Coming July 1
    https://www.fedsmith.com/2020/06/02/new-tsp-funds-coming-july-1/
    New TSP Funds Coming July 1
    L2020 will closes and monies will be rolled into income Lincome funds...also new L fund 2060 and 2065 are introduced
    L 2065
    L 2060
    L 2055
    L 2050
    L 2045
    L 2040
    L 2035
    L 2030
    L 2025
    L Income
    Do other firms gave 2065 TDFs
  • CORronavirus Roundtable - The Closed-End Funds Opportunity Persists
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4351221-coronavirus-roundtable-closed-end-funds-opportunity-persists
    Roundtable - The Closed-End Funds Opportunity Persists
    Jun. 1, 2020 7:00 AMExchange Listed Funds Trust - Saba Closed-End Funds ETF (CEFS)ADX, DMO, EHI
    Summary
    We gather a panel of authors to discuss closed-end funds and their set-up heading into June.
    While distributions have been cut in some places, other areas have held up nicely.
    Combined with still wider discounts to NAVs, nimble investors may find opportunities.
    Pdi
    Adx
    Will add these to watch lists
    Regards
  • IOFIX/IOFAX marketing materials/prospectus
    Every post you make FD is all about you. "I saw this. I did that. Every one else is dumb for missing it." The point is the likelihood of anyone 'investing" in this fund, not trading, would not have seen a 40% drop in 2 days on the horizon.
    Yes, totally BS. And what is the smiley face for?

    You are correct, I didn't know in advance how bad it could be but I expected it to be bad.
    Your reaction is typical, I see anger and disbelief when I tell you my thoughts and how I operate. The smiley is to let you know it's all expected.
    In this thread(
    link), I documented many trades that I have done since 2-28-2020. I made several similar posts on MFO too, see (here). Why no admit I made a great call.
    I'm pretty sure you will come back and request me to post every trade I make :-)
    My trading style has been established for years which helped me in the last 3 years since retirement in 2018. I will sell any bond fund that loses more than 1%, actually, I even sell earlier if other funds in the same category behave differently or I can find a better fund according to my goals.
    Here is the bottom line: while you claim it's all BS the facts show I sold all my portfolio to cash prior to the meltdown.
    You sound a little cocky, but I wouldn't worry too much. There's some sour grapes goin around lately. I got some crap for commenting on a post on someone bummed on staying in cash, not buying the dip, and furthermore, anticipating a second covid wave to justify in another thread. These things happen. We've all f-ed up. No big deal.
  • June 1st Commentary is up.
    TMSRX is a bit of a “black-box” (to me anyway). I feel most of these “go anywhere” type funds are. But, who better to trust to run one than TRP? Seems to me they’re trying with this fund to generate income (or at least income-like returns) that can stand up if / when bonds start to fall - as they surely must some day. (They actually use the term “Income” in the fund’s handle.) I suspect the fund would fit into numerous “slots” in various portfolios. I use it in my alternative sleeve which is 25% of investments. The other big holding in that sleeve is PRPFX. TMSRX adds stability and, remarkably, some days rises when most everything else is falling. I’ll look forward to David’s in depth review of the fund next month.
    *** Apologies and a correction: Just noticed that the word “income“ does not appear in TMSRX’s title as I claimed above. Where’d I get that idea? BTW, I’ve sometimes considered plugging it into my “income” sleeve where I think it would fit nicely as a hedge against rising rates.
    PS - Today’s NYT addresses the two Davenport killings, including the one mentioned by David. Senseless & Tragic. So sorry.
  • June 1st Commentary is up.
    Hi David,
    Regarding this about active mutual funds versus passive ETFs, I have a few quibbles:
    They have not been repeatedly defamed by self-interested marketers and lazy financial journalists looking for cheap stories. “80% of mutual funds failed to beat the market last year” is utterly fatuous – beating the market isn’t the goal, one year is an irrelevant time period, risk matters as much as returns, very nearly all passive products also trail the market – but has made it hard to approach investors, young, professional or otherwise. The term “skunked” comes to mind. The repackage offers a clean slate.
    While looking at a year's worth of performance versus the benchmark isn't very meaningful, it is actually over the long-term that active funds struggle the most to beat their benchmarks, and many financial articles have made that point. In fact, I think it is far more common to have an active fund beat a benchmark in the short-term, have an excellent year but struggle over the long-term as the cumulative hurdle effect of its fees gets harder and harder to overcome. Also, while there are many passive ETFs that don't match their benchmarks either, in the main categories like large cap, mid-cap and small-cap, they often do and sometimes even beat their benchmarks because of securities lending, or only lag a minuscule amount. Also, the long-term record of many funds versus their benchmarks doesn't necessarily improve when adjusted for risk. The SPIVA data on funds versus their benchmarks has risk-adjusted returns over the last fifteen years:
    https://us.spindices.com/resource-center/thought-leadership/spiva/
    92% of large-cap funds, 86% of mid-cap and 87% of small-cap funds have lagged their benchmarks on a risk-adjusted basis over the last 15 years. In fact, the one equity category where active managers had a fighting chance in this data were international small-caps where the benchmark won only 68% of the time over 15-years. Fixed income funds were better, but not by as much as one would hope
    Even gross of fees, active managers struggled:
    The risk-adjusted performance of active funds obviously improves on a gross-of-fees basis, but even then, outperformance is scarce. Only Real Estate (over the 5- and 15-year periods), Large-Cap Value (over the 15-year period), and Mid-Cap Growth funds (over the 5-year period) saw a majority of active managers outperform their benchmarks. Overall, most active domestic equity managers in most categories underperformed their benchmarks, even on a gross-of-fees basis.
    As in the U.S., the majority of international equity funds across all categories generated lower risk-adjusted returns than their benchmarks when using net-of-fees returns. On a gross-of-fees basis, only International Small-Cap funds outperformed on a risk-adjusted basis over the 10- and 15-year periods.
    When using net-of-fees risk-adjusted returns, the majority of actively managed fixed income funds in most categories underperformed over all three investment horizons. The exceptions were Government Long, Investment Grade Long, and Loan Participation funds (over the 5- and 10-year periods), as well as Investment Grade Short funds (over the 5-year period).
    However, unlike their equity counterparts, most fixed income funds outperformed their respective benchmarks gross of fees. This highlights the critical role of fees in fixed income fund performance. In general, more active fixed income managers underperformed over the long term (15 years) than over the intermediate term (5 years).
    On a net-of-fee basis, asset-weighted return/volatility ratios for active portfolios were higher than the corresponding equal-weighted ratios, indicating that larger firms have taken on better-compensated risk than smaller ones.

    One important saving grace I think is that SPIVA only considers risk as volatility and not downside capture or Sortino ratios. So that should be considered. All of that said, the threat from passive ETFs is most certainly real and should not be underestimated.