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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • SS increase: what to do
    @BenWP - Yes, sounds like you & I have same plan. I’ve found in the past that some seldom prescribed meds that cost $50 - $100 with that insurance plan can be had for approximately $10 - $15 if I use Good RX instead (at Meijers). So, I’m not totally blind-sided by your post. But - Geez - liscinopril’s an old and very commonly prescribed med for controlling blood pressure. I’m surprised that price gouging is occurring on this very common med. Cudos to you for noting the discrepancies in pricing.
  • SS increase: what to do
    Update: New monthly premium for Part B will be $170.10 per month, which is an increase of $21.60 per month. Also, Part B deductible will increase from $203 annually in 2021 to $233 annually in 2022. Everywhere I had read indicated around a $10 a month increase, so more than expected. If your SS increase is less than the Medicare increase, you will be held harmless.
    Perhaps 20/20 hindsight, but this should not have come as a major surprise. (I've played the game of hoping for, or "anticipating" a smaller increase, so I'm not an innocent bystander here.)
    The increase last year was less than it should have been, because of a law that cut the increase by 3/4 only for 2021. The actual 2021 premium should have been closer to $160. Insurance premiums are set based on anticipated costs, not last year's costs. Since medical costs barely budged in 2021, one might anticipate a smart rise in costs during 2022. Thus Medicare (and other health insurance) premiums should have been expected to rise a fair amount above $160.
    Viewed that way, the $170 premium is disappointing but not surprising.
    For the "hold harmless" rule to apply, one must not be subject to IRMAA. (More than 90% of Medicare participants are not subject to IRMAA.)
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    @Observant1: the PV charts are really helpful. I had noted MIEIX and SCIEX as good performers when I looked rapidly for LB international funds. What strikes me is how relatively poorly the investor in international equities has been rewarded over the past 10 years and beyond as measured by the Vanguard Total International index on your linked chart. Very revealing.
  • SS increase: what to do
    @hank: there is still insurance coverage, as I understand it. We have, as you may, OptumRx, the plan offered for retired school personnel in MI. Just Thursday, despite telling the doctor how we wanted the script written, Meijer had the 90-day supply ready for $17.90. I asked them to redo it and yesterday I got the 30-day Rx for $1.67. Since we shop there regularly, going once a month is not burdensome. The pharmacy claims it must charge what the insurer requires. OptumRx has deals with certain pharmacies, so not all retail outlets in MI have the same price. Kroger does not, for example. Weird.
  • SS increase: what to do
    … for a month’s supply of Lisinipril, a drug we pay $1.75 for when we buy it at the local pharmacy. If the doctor orders a 90-day supply of the same drug, the pharmacy is required by the insurer to charge us $16. We go in every month because we have always been thrifty.
    @BenWP - Thanks for the tip. (I’m the idiot who has been paying $16.00 )
    Likely, like me, there’s a Meijers store near you. So, using Good RX, this med can be had for $10.94 for 90 days - and you would only have to make one trip instead of 3. (Click the “90 day supply” tab to view price.)
    One wonders however at this Voodoo Insurance whereby the medicines cost less if you pay out of pocket instead of using your insurance. What’s wrong with this picture?
    PT Barnum?
  • SS increase: what to do
    Update: New monthly premium for Part B will be $170.10 per month, which is an increase of $21.60 per month. Also, Part B deductible will increase from $203 annually in 2021 to $233 annually in 2022. Everywhere I had read indicated around a $10 a month increase, so more than expected. If your SS increase is less than the Medicare increase, you will be held harmless.
  • Forsyth & Cuggino - Center Stage in This Week’s Barron’s
    Re: Barron’s November 15 print edition:
    I’ll never understand why Randall Forsyth’s typically excellent column is normally placed 4th, 5th or 6th in the magazine’s pecking-order. But, at least in this week’s print edition, Forsyth’s “Up and Down Wall Street” is the lead article. His opening salvo - “We Have Met the Inflation Enemy and it is Washington” - provides a glimpse into the column’s main menu (served up with an abundance of “tongue-in-cheek”).
    I never recommend (and try not to flog) funds I own. But I’ll note that Michael Cuggino, manager of one of my longest held and largest holdings, receives some due attention from Forsyth this week. If you happen to own PRPFX, Cuggino’s comments will at least alert you to adjustments he’s made to the fund’s positioning.
    Couple of Excerpts from the referenced column:
    - “The bond and equity markets have not adequately priced in higher inflation, volatility, and higher interest rates,” warns Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager of the Permanent Portfolio funds. The Fed's insistence that inflation is transitory and will ease once supply-chain snafus are cleared up is being challenged as wage increases are built into businesses’ behavior, he adds.
    - Cuggino says that the Permanent Portfolio was established in the early 1980s to preserve purchasing power from a diversified collection of U.S. stocks, fixed-income holdings, precious metals, and Swiss franc assets. Given the dim prospects he sees for bonds, the fund is overweight equities while keeping fixed income in high-quality, short-duration corporate bonds.
    (The expressed views do not necessarily represent my own. Just sharing for what interest it may hold)
  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    “Free Kiplinger's Personal Finance at $1M level“
    May I suggest that rather than sending your $1M to TRP, you simply subscribe to this questionably useful tabloid at Amazon?
    e-Edition $11.88 yearly (99-cents per issue)
    Print Edition $34.95 yearly (about $2.90 per issue)
    Provided the previous “WSJ digital” referenced included access to all stories in the paper (not just loaded with conservative editorials), Kiplinger's would represent a ludicrous downgrade.
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    Why not file at 62 and invest 8 years of benefits.

    Comment:
    What the video misses is the fact that the dollar amount of a 5% withdrawal changes as the invested portfolio continues to be invested (during retirement). An investment needs to maintain its value over time. The best investments maintain their inflation adjusted value over time while also providing an income (withdrawal).
    I fiddled with this scenario...please critique.
    I assumed a 7% return investing after tax SS from age 62 to age 70, netting a portfolio balance close to $200K.
    Now, if I died tomorrow my estate is worth $200K more taking SS early verses if I waited until 70 to take SS. This gets rid of "short-evity" risk (dying early). Also, I continue to work part time between ages 62-70 and add all of my SS funded contributions into a Roth IRA, (Roth 401K), Spousal Roth or through Roth conversions along the 8 year investment window (age 62-70). Since my SS income is $15K less at age 70, I take Roth withdrawals which are tax free. This seems to make good tax sense.
    Using PV, I run three scenarios using different types of investments.
    VWINX=Conservative Allocation
    PRWCX = Moderte Allocation
    PRBLX = Managed All Equity Fund - Aggressive Allocation
    I start the simulation in 2001 to include two nasty downturns (Tech bubble and GFR) early on in the simulation.
    Portfolio value is $200K (what was saved from SS). Year one pay out @ age 70 is $15,200 (the difference between early and late SS filing). This withdrawal will increase 2% a year for inflation going forward (COLA).
    PRBLX & VWINX - Lost portfolio value throughout the 20 year time frame (70-90).
    VWINX - Was ready to bust at age 90.
    PRBLX - Was worth about half its orginal value $106K adjusted for inflation.
    PRWCX - Lost portfolio value briefly during the GFR, but recovered and gained value.
    PRWCX- Fared much better than the conservative allocation (VWINX) and the aggresive allocation (PRBLX).
    PRWCX - At age 90, this portfolio had a inflation adjusted value of $200K...pretty good.
    image
    My PV Link
  • T. Rowe Price Summit Program
    The benefits page for this program is now up:
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/about/client-benefits/index.html
    The changes I note immediately from the previous (Select Client) services are:
    - Three tiers: $250K, $500K, $1M (vs. two in the old program)
    - "Preferred" access to closed funds (whatever that means; it's not clarified)
    - Access to I class shares ($50K min) at $500K level
    - Free Kiplinger's Personal Finance at $1M level; it used to be WSJ digital. This seems like a downgrade.
    The constant is that at all tiers ($250K and above) one still gets M* premium membership.
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    Your Social Security benefits are a significant retirement asset, worth more than $1 million of lifetime benefits for many readers. The present value of Social Security benefits at retirement, which can total hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, joins home equity as the two largest assets available for most American retirees, easily dwarfing the value of their investment portfolios.
    For many lower- and middle-income Americans, Social Security may end up providing the vast majority of retirement income. The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College notes an interesting statistic that Social Security provides 70% of the income for 70% of households aged 80 or over.
    introducing-the-social-security-claiming-decision/
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Nov 13 Episode:
    "Middle America is the new Emerging Market"

  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    Copied From the Big Bang Investing Board and edited for posting on the MFO Board.
    This briefing is for the week ending November 12, 2021.
    The Index Review
    The major market indices finished down for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -0.63%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -0.31%, the Nasdaq Composite was down -0.69%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -1.04%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were materials +2.60%, health care +0.72%, and industrials +0.48%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.27% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield was listed at 1.57%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +24.67%.
    Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were FXI (China) +5.29%, BKF (BRIC Countries) +3.55% and EWZ (Brazil) +3.04%.
    Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were SHY (1-3 Yr US Treasuries) -0.24%, HYG (Corporate High Yield) -0.74% and AGG (US Agg Bond) -0.78%.
    Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were SLV (Silver) +4.79%, GLD (Gold) +2.71% and DBA (Agiculture) +2.49%.
    Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were GDX (Gold Miners) +6.17%, SIL (Silver Miners) +6.07% and XME (Metals & Mining) +4.28%.
    Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.87%, FXB (British Sterling) -0.51% and FXY (Japanese Yen) -0.60%
    A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Thus far, I am up 6.28% in my spiff (special investment) position which I opened back in September. Since, this spiff is invested in Voya Corporate Leaders 100 Fund (VYCAX) I have no plans to add to it until after it makes it's annual year end distribution estimated to be in the 6% to 8% range. I will be building cash during the most part of the 4th quarter while being fully invested within the confines of my portfolio's (20/40/40) asset allocation (cash, bonds and stocks). I will rebalance, if warranted, during the 1st quarter of 2021.
    Articles of Investment Interest
    US STOCKS-Wall Street ends higher with boost from big tech
    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-idUSL1N2S323Z
    NY Fed Releases First Monthly Bond-Buying Schedule Reflecting Taper
    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-purchase-schedule-idUSKBN2HX2D3
    Is Cash a Good Low "Risk" Hedge?
    Ooops ... Link to ZeroHedge article removed for briefing posting on the MFO Board.
    Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
    Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
    S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
    T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
    Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    A couple of more to consider. Blackrock International is a foreign large blend that scores in the top 10% across most time frames for its category. Impressive fund. Grandeur Peak Global stalwarts has had a very nice couple of years in the Global Small/mid cap space. David has written a lot about this fund family. Thanks for the advice on MIEIX @Observant1. Wasn’t aware of that one. Great candidate for a taxable account too. I’m personally leaning to starting an account with WCMIX. I will be reading up more on these other funds too. BGAIX is also interesting but it’s very high PE multiple gives me pause.
  • Preparing For The Grizzly Bear
    “ There is a lot of fear mongering ….. Those are worthwhile discussions to have.”
    Nicely put. Thanks for the detailed analysis @LewisBraham
    I try to read as much of the popular financial press as I can - by no means a comprehensive amount. But what often surfaces in these analyses is: (1) Central banks (notably the Fed) do not want to tank the markets. (2) They do, however, want to curb speculation. Unfortunately, there’s emerged over the years a certain amount of conflict there. When they do attempt to tighten (slow speculation) the equity markets become turbulent and fall or threaten to fall. “Taper tantrum” is the phrase often used. (3) This conflict leads (it seems invariably) to stage #3 in which the central banks / Fed “cave” to the markets and loosen the reins again. Repeat the process. Market players understand the game.
    So now after years (decades?) of monetary stimulus we sit at near 0 short term rates with the Fed still buying bonds (albeit at a reduced rate) and talking obliquely about needing to further stimulate until “full employment” is reached. (Have you tried having your home roofed or painted lately?) Meanwhile, the markets march merrily along, The question left unanswered is - What further can the Fed and central banks do to keep the magic market money wheel churning next time the economy and / or stock market begins to shudder? What happens to those elevated asset prices when the stimulus runs out and people begin to realize the tank is empty?
    One pundit I follow expects that coming inflation will force the bond market to take control - irregardless of Fed policy. In other words, faced with growing losses of purchasing power bond investors will sell en mass, forcing rates higher and eventually toppling stocks. I don’t necessarily siubscribe to this view, But think it’s one (of many) worth considering.
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    In the Foreign Large Blend category, I like SCIEX and MIEIX*.
    The SCIEX management team also manages 30% of VWILX.
    MIEIX has below average costs, low turnover, and usually provides good downside protection.
    Mr. Ling started managing MIEIX on 10/01/2009; Mr. Webber began managing SCIEX on 03/01/2010.
    Portfolio Visualizer Results from Mar 2010 - Oct 2021
    *Morningstar fund category was Foreign Large Growth prior to 2020
  • A US Fund is Hit with a "Closet Indexing" Charge
    I don't care if an active fund tracks an index on the upside, but I do care if it tracks an index on the downside. The SPY lost like 38% in the GFC while PRBLX was down only 22. I'll take positioning & performance like that anyday.
    From M* PRILX Fund Analyst Report:
    "Downside protection has been a strength for this
    fund’s focused, roughly 40-stock portfolio. Since
    Ahlsten became a manager on the fund, the strategy
    has outperformed the S&P 500 in every market
    correction, including the 2007-08 financial crisis, 2018’s
    end-of-year pullback, and early 2020’s pandemic-driven
    sell-off. One reason for that is that almost all holdings
    have narrow or wide Morningstar Economic Moat
    Ratings. While the fund typically lags in the ensuing
    rallies, the managers have shown skill in picking up
    depressed names that have proved beneficial in the
    rebound."