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Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings

edited November 25 in Other Investing
Copied From the Big Bang Investing Board and edited for posting on the MFO Board.

This briefing is for the week ending November 12, 2021.

The Index Review

The major market indices finished down for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -0.63%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -0.31%, the Nasdaq Composite was down -0.69%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -1.04%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were materials +2.60%, health care +0.72%, and industrials +0.48%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.27% while the 10-year US Treasury bond's yield was listed at 1.57%. Year to date the S&P 500 Index is up +24.67%.

Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were FXI (China) +5.29%, BKF (BRIC Countries) +3.55% and EWZ (Brazil) +3.04%.

Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were SHY (1-3 Yr US Treasuries) -0.24%, HYG (Corporate High Yield) -0.74% and AGG (US Agg Bond) -0.78%.

Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were SLV (Silver) +4.79%, GLD (Gold) +2.71% and DBA (Agiculture) +2.49%.

Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were GDX (Gold Miners) +6.17%, SIL (Silver Miners) +6.07% and XME (Metals & Mining) +4.28%.

Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.87%, FXB (British Sterling) -0.51% and FXY (Japanese Yen) -0.60%

A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Thus far, I am up 6.28% in my spiff (special investment) position which I opened back in September. Since, this spiff is invested in Voya Corporate Leaders 100 Fund (VYCAX) I have no plans to add to it until after it makes it's annual year end distribution estimated to be in the 6% to 8% range. I will be building cash during the most part of the 4th quarter while being fully invested within the confines of my portfolio's (20/40/40) asset allocation (cash, bonds and stocks). I will rebalance, if warranted, during the 1st quarter of 2021.

Articles of Investment Interest

US STOCKS-Wall Street ends higher with boost from big tech
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-idUSL1N2S323Z

NY Fed Releases First Monthly Bond-Buying Schedule Reflecting Taper
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-purchase-schedule-idUSKBN2HX2D3

Is Cash a Good Low "Risk" Hedge?
Ooops ... Link to ZeroHedge article removed for briefing posting on the MFO Board.

Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."

Old_Skeet


Comments

  • Thanks very much for sharing this @CecilJK. Always enjoy your posts.
  • Hi Skeeter,
    VYCAX - So what is float adjusted market cap anyway? And what do the options do for the fund? Also, derivatives and futures with portfolio lending seems rather busy to me. I assume all this is to generate income for the fund.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • edited November 15
    Hi Pudd,

    Thanks for stopping by.

    Comments and quetions for Old_Skeet should be directed to him on the Big Bang Board. I believe his handle "Old_Skeet" is still in "timeout" on the MFO Board.

    Here is what I was able to locate for your questions. This is my thinking not saying that it is correct as applied to VYCAX.

    Q: What is float adjusted market cap?

    A: "The number of shares used for calculation is the number of shares "floating", rather than outstanding. An index that is weighted in this manner is said to be "float-adjusted" or "float-weighted", in addition to being cap-weighted. For example, the S&P 500 index is both cap-weighted and float-adjusted."

    Q: What do options do for the fund?

    A: "Options speculation allows a trader to hold a leveraged position in an asset at a lower cost than buying shares of the asset. Investors use options to hedge or reduce the risk exposure of their portfolios. In some cases, the option holder can generate income when they buy call options or become an options writer."

    Assumption: Options lower the cost to position and maintain the fund within target ranges as it rebalances positions quarterly. In this rebalance process, most times, the fund generates capital gains (a source of income) which are subject to taxation on the share holder. In addition, the fund pays a dividend.

    Best regards,



  • edited November 15
    Comments and questions for Old_Skeet should be directed to him on the Big Bang Board. I believe his handle "Old_Skeet" is still in "timeout" on the MFO Board
    HIS handle is one in the same. Both of HIS pseudonyms are one in the same person; and obviously one pseudonym is allowed to post here.
    Why play such a game here ???
  • The investing comments originate from CecilJK, so I'm happy with his dual status !
  • edited November 15
    Wait a sec, hold up...."CecilJK"....JK..JK.....like in JK Rowling. The OP is clearly a Harry Potter fan.
  • Or he's channelling John Kennedy !
  • Nope, it must stand for Cecil Just Kidding because we all know who is really posting these blind (which is what Cecil means).
  • Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Market Insights ... Bonds Selling Off.

    Hi guys,

    Thus far, it is high quality bonds and long term maturities that are taking the hit in Old_Skeet's fixed income compass with AGG being in the middle of the pack. Short term and high yield are the better performers. Still, it might be a while before I become a buyer in my fixed income sleeve as I feel we still have a ways to go on the downward slope. Plus, I've got some year end capital gain distributions coming in December on some of the funds held in my fixed income sleeve. I'm thinking lower prices lie ahead as there still remains issues within the FOMC itself. What will Biden do? Who will become the lead Wizard? For now ... I sit ... and, I watch.

    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."

    Old_Skeet
  • Hi Cecil,

    Listened to FIDO today. They had TCW guy on about bonds. Some things said were the cycle looks late because of Fed. Trash is king right now. The economy can't handle big rate rises now due to leverage. Inflation should fade later. Productivity is up. Big economy should slow later. Powell and debt ceiling will be big soon. Bad points are if Fed speeds up taper and rates. Good now short bonds. No corporate or high yield. mbs looks good right now



    God bless
    the Pudd
  • Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.

    This briefing is for the week ending November 19, 2021.

    The Index Review

    For the week the major equity indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -1.38%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.24%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -2.85%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were consumer discretionary +3.74%, technology +2.39%, and utilities +0.98%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.26% and is up year to date 25.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.83% and for the week lost -0.10%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.83%.

    Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) +2.35%, EWT (Tiawan) +1.41% and SPY (US S&P 500) +0.32%.

    Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +0.70%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.21% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.11%.

    Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +4.11%, DBA (Agriculture) +1.62% and GLD (Gold) -1.05%.

    Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were PIO (Global Water) -0.16%, MOO (Agribusness) -1.37% and TAN (Solar) -1.50%.

    Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.98%, FXB (British Sterling) +0.14%% and FXY (Japanese Yen) +0.02%

    A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: My "All Weather Asset Allocation" of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes my volatility, and provides me long-term returns.

    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide me the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback or to take advantage of seasonal investment trends. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are currency, money market mutual funds, FDIC bank deposits and CD's. Generally, this area benefits from rising interest rates.

    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, BAICX & PONAX .

    The 40% held in the equity area provides me dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, which, over time, helps to offset the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are AMECX, IDIVX & SPECX.

    From their neutral weightings, 40% each for my stock and bond areas, overweights (underweights) are allowed at + (or -) 5% with rebalance thresholds set at + (or -) 2% from desired weightings while cash is allowed to float. Thus the maximum weighting for both stocks and bonds could be as high as 47% each with their minimum weightings being as low as 33% while cash is allowed to float with a weighting range of 6% to 34%. So what seemed, at first glance, to be a very conservative asset allocation does allow for positioning based upon market reads along with some other influencing factors. Currently, I am overweight equity through the engagement of a spiff position and a little underweight in my fixed income sleeve due to anticipated rising interest rates.

    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way, I have found, principal grows over time as well as the size of my disbursements. My objective is to continue to grow my principal along with increasing my income stream.

    Articles of Investment Interest

    Is Investing an Art, a Science, or a Craft?
    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/969787/seth-klarman-is-investing-an-art-a-science-or-a-craft

    Europe Lockdown Fears Knock Stocks, Spark Dash for Bonds
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2021-11-19/

    The Big Green Push to Get Rid of Coal Had the Opposite Effect
    https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-big-green-push-to-get-rid-of-coal-had-the-opposite-effect

    Wall Street Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield in 2022
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-forecasts-us-dollar-10-year-treasury-yield-2022-2021-11-18/

    Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

    Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
    S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
    T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

    Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."

    Old_Skeet
  • edited November 25
    Hi guys,

    Happy Thanksgiving!

    In following my bond fund proxy AGG (Aggregate Bond ETF) as I write it is down -0.46% for the rolling week and year to date down -2.26%. Form my perspective most bonds continue to lose traction. With this, I am now favoring new money towards my money market mutual funds as this is one way to play a rising interest rate environment. In addition, I am now underweight in my fixed income sleeve due to most of my bond funds losing traction. When bond prices stabelize I will return to a normal weighting within my fixed income sleeve. Until then, I sit and I watch while building cash.

    May you celebrate Thanksgiving Day with love in your heart, prosperous vision in your mind and gratitude in your being.

    Old_Skeet

    All of the above has been copied from the Big Bang Investing Board for posting on the MFO Board.
  • edited November 26
    Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.

    This briefing is for the week ending November 26, 2021.

    The Index Review

    For the week the major equity indices finished down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -2.71%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -2.34%, the Nasdaq Composite retreated -3.14% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -4.98%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were utilities -0.24%, consumer defensive -0.48%, and health care -1.35%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.29% and is up year to date 22.33%; but off its 52 week high by -3.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.82% and for the week and lost -0.46%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -2.26% and is off its 52 week high by -3.32%.

    Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were EWZ (Brazil) +0.79%, SPY (US S&P 500) -2.29%, and QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) -1.95%.

    Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +2.53%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.72% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.25%.

    Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +6.54%, DBA (Agriculture) -0.25% and GLD (Gold) -4.08%.

    Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were REMX (Rare Earth Metals) +3.75%, SLX (Steel) +0.60% and LIT (Global Lithium) -0.93%.

    Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXY (Japanese Yen) +1.05%, UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.59%, and FXF (Swiss Frank) +0.24%.

    A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Currently, Old_Skeet is a little underweight fixed income due to anticipated rising interest rates and a little overweight equity due to a seasonal stock trend via a special investment position (spiff). In the fall I generally increase my equity weighting and towards the end of spring I trim, or close, my special investment position. As I write, the equity spiff that I opened back in September, during a stock market dip, is up 3.42%.

    Articles of Investment Interest

    Wall St Week Ahead COVID-19 Fears Reappear As a Threat to Market
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wall-st-week-ahead-covid-19-fears-reappear-threat-market-2021-11-26/

    Best Money Market Mutual Funds Of 2021
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/the-best-money-market-mutual-funds/

    Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links

    Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
    Short Volume SPY ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading SPY ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
    SPY Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    T/A Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion

    Bond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
    Short Volume AGG ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/AGG
    Yield Charting AGG ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591
    AGG Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535
    T/A Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion

    Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
  • @CecilJK
    So, you don't actually own the etf's you noted; but are part of your "compass"? Clarification please.
  • A similar question was asked of Old_Skeet on the Big Bang Board. Here is the reply.

    "Hi Fearchar ,

    Thanks for your question.

    You guessed it. Being a former boy scout, like you, I used the compass to find my way and hold its merit badge.

    Therefore, to find the faster moving market currents I have set up "a compass" of sorts to track and follow the market and to locate the faster moving "current."

    As a retail investor some of the assets found in the compass I hold and others I don't."

    Old_Skeet

  • M* Portfolio "% Below 52-wk High" is price-based and is not reliable as distributions are not accounted for. The other thing to note is that for bond funds, the high was in December 2020 while for stocks in November 2021. Stockcharts provides better information.
    LINK1 Prices
    LINK2 Reinvested
  • @CecilJK ; Good morning. Would there be any chance to post slackers in your compass readings ? I think that would also be interesting to some of your readers.

    Have a good day, Derf
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