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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    Roth IRA used to have $2,000 limit when it started in 1998. Many people don’t have jobs with 401K) and 403(b) plans. How can one save enough for retirement with $6,000 and 1,000 catch-up, per year?
  • This time it's different ?
    Its too soon for me to be certain its different this time. But, the global central banks have been astute and activist enough in recent years to keep investors engaged and satisfied -- garden variety stock market corrections excepted. Accommodative global fiscal policies also made important contributions to this outcome during the past couple of years. Current and projected economic conditions suggest this recent trend could continue through 2022. That said, I suspect any future stock market gains through 2022 will be more modest and will be more interrupted along the way than they have thus far been in 2021.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    Hi @Baseball_Fan,
    PVCMX and TANDX are under my radar screen as I require a $100M in assets before they hit my screens, and usually require a Fund Family Rating of 3 or higher. That said, their risk adjusted performance has been good, especially, PCVMX.
    If I recall my history correctly, one of the first "All Weather" funds conceived by Harry Browne in the 1980's was the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) which did well in the 1980's but lost performance as for several reasons such as the price of gold falling. Later Ray Dalio is also known for proposing an "All Weather Portfolio".
    https://wallethacks.com/ray-dalio-all-weather-portfolio/
    Here is a good description:
    "The All-Weather Portfolio is designed to thrive in exactly such tumultuous market environments. By maintaining specific mutually exclusive asset allocation – some would even call them boring – the All-Weather Portfolio doesn’t just preserve portfolio value but enables it to grow."
    I am using the term to hold low correlation assets managed in different ways including multi-asset and multi-strategy funds. My intent is to have a portfolio with low drawdown and good risk adjusted returns.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @lynnbolin2021,
    Looking forward to your next MFO article..should be interesting as always....
    Curious as to your thoughts for addition in the "all-weather" approach regarding funds such as:
    PVCMX Palm Valley Capital Fund. Invests generally in small cap value co's, high quality, strong balance sheets, strong free cash flow, profitable co's. Not afraid to hold cash in market bubbles (whatever that means anymore) Absolute return focused.
    TANDX (Castle Tandem Fund) Invests in Large cap, growing dividend payers, that are capable of growing earning regardless of economic conditions, not afraid to hold cash if need be, does not make market call to go to cash, only if can't find the appropriate value in a stock
    Trying to look forward as to what may come rather than backwards look at performance, data etc.
    Very intrigued by BLNDX/REMIX as mentioned by Prof David, have initiated starter position.
    If you would, please define your interpretation of what "all weather" means from your viewpoint.
    Is it a marketing term, maybe overused like ESG, maybe nebulous terminology or maybe not?
    Mine is of a fund that you could have significant holdings of your wealth and hold thru a 30-40% drawdown in the markets, while sleeping well and having the confidence that the fund mgmt will make the right decisions over the next few years. Also, do like funds that have a succession planning in place...no funds with the boomer aged guru with no protege learning and next in line etc.
    I also define as all weather fund as a fund that could compete when compared with a 45% SPY/55 SCHO ETF backwards look performance wise...most can't, no?
    Best to all, I enjoy your postings, makes me think...
    Baseball Fan
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @Derf - It’s in both my Traditional IRA and Roth IRA. Roughly equal amounts. Currently comprises 47% of my 33% weighting to alternatives. That works out to 15.5% of total investments.
    More than you wanted to know,. :). Thanks for asking.
    For what interest it may hold for others, at 75 I’ve gone largely to a “preservation” approach.
    In a nutshell: 30-35% Growth / 30-35% Income / 30-35% Alternatives / 2-5% Speculative
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @hank & @lynnbolin2021 Do you hold TMSRX in a taxable account or other ?
    Thank you to both, Derf
  • PRDSX. TRP small-cap (quant) growth fund
    I own it, but have tactically been reducing its proportion in my portfolio. PRDSX. It's my smallest fund holding now. Down to 2% of total. I sense it's lost its mojo. Even though a quant fund is all about statistics and algorithms and such, and not so much about Fund Manager "savvy" and legerdemain. Is the Quant Model they're using not very effective any longer? This is the 2nd year in a row that the fund is a serious laggard vs. peers. (Well, "peers" as categorized by Morningstar.) Longer-term numbers mean much more, of course.
    ...So, when I see a couple of good up-days, I've been taking tiny bites out of it and putting it into PRSNX, a dollar-hedged TRP bond fund. I want to be growing my bonds, anyhow. And what's with the rather big estimated capital gain in 2021 for PRDSX? ($6.00/share--- if memory serves me.) I'm also thinking I could "afford" to put 6% of my portfolio into TRP Junk Fund TUHYX. Six percent. I would take that 6% from my RPSIX holding. At the moment, RPSIX = 21.95% of portfolio total, and PRSNX = 21.20% of portf. total. The other bond fund is 6.10% of total: PTIAX.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    David, thanks for posting your research on REMIX. I compared REMIX to FMSDX, looks good...see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?REMIX,FMSDX&n=455&O=011000
    Would love to hear Lynn Bolin's take on this fund as well. I am continuing to look for "defensive" funds that can offer decent returns, and was happy to discover REMIX here.
    TIA,
    Rick
    Hi Rick, After reading David's article, I researched REMIX. It comes close to my minimum criteria of two years of age and $100M in assets. I compared it to other funds that I track. I placed an order to allocate 5% of one of my portfolios to REMIX, and plan to buy a little more. I like its relative smooth performance. It joins CTFAX, CRAAX, FMSDX, FSRRX, and TMSRX, among others, in my attempt to build an "All Weather" portfolio.
    This portfolio is the subject of my next MFO article.
    Lynn
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    I’m also thankful to have the write-up on REMIX. Last year I committed a hefty sum to TMSRX, thinking I’d be satisfied if it out-performed cash. What I discovered was that I was less than thrilled with performance of 0.94% YTD, given that the fund had done much better than that in 2019 and 2020. I sold at a modest profit and redeployed elsewhere. While REMIX is not completely comparable, it represents an alternative to the vast majority of my portfolio holdings which are traditional OEFs, most of which are not defensive. I’m dipping a toe in the water.
  • This time it's different ?
    A hint for what millennials are into -
  • The Largest Companies in 1929
    Interesting to see how times have changed. I wonder if people had boundless optimism about these companies back then too:
    image
    Also, here are the companies in the Dow in September of 1929:
    September 14, 1929
    Allied Chemical and Dye Corporation
    General Foods Corporation †
    Paramount Publix Corporation
    American Can Company
    General Motors Corporation
    Radio Corporation of America
    American Smelting & Refining Company
    General Railway Signal Company
    Sears Roebuck & Company
    The American Sugar Refining Company
    B.F. Goodrich Corporation
    Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey
    American Tobacco Company (B shares)
    International Harvester Company
    The Texas Company
    Atlantic Refining Company
    International Nickel Company, Ltd.
    Texas Gulf Sulphur Company
    Bethlehem Steel Corporation
    Mack Trucks, Inc.
    Union Carbide Corporation
    Chrysler Corporation
    Nash Motors Company
    United States Steel Corporation
    Curtiss-Wright Corporation †
    National Cash Register Company
    Westinghouse Electric Corporation
    General Electric Company
    North American Company
    F. W. Woolworth Company
  • Women May Be Better Investors Than Men
    @hank said,
    But I’d have more money if I’d sunk 100% in PRWCX 25 years ago and followed with a “RipVanWinkle” act!
    I stand at the launch pad of retirement (age 62) thinking that PRWCX, VWINX and a little Cash will provide a safe withdrawal (different than a safe withdrawal rate) in the first ten years of retirement. I am positioning about 1/3 of my portfolio in these two funds (plus 1 year of cash equivalent withdrawals). My hope is to derive both growth and income from these positions.
    The remaining 2/3 will hopefully not be needed for 10 years and will be invested for growth (to help fund year 72 - year 92 ). Along the way, I hope to reallocate gains from this long term bucket back into these 2 funds (and replenish cash). I will deal with down markets by withdrawing a little less since I have other reliable monthly income. I am a fan of withdrawing fixed percentages rather than fix dollar amounts and letting the market dictate the ups and downs of the actual dollar amount (withdrawal).
    A 4% withdrawal (based on the entire portfolio) from a fund like VWINX which has a MAXXDD of about 10% would mean a withdrawal haircut in a very bad year that equates to 3.6% (10% off of 4%). I can live with that as a number to plan around. I feel VWINX will work well in conjunction with cash (as an alternative withdrawal source) giving VWINX a 1 year recovery time if we have a MAXDD event. PRWCX will remain a 5 - 10 year position that will be milked or kept out to pasture depending on what the market offers. PRWCX's milk will be refrigerated into VWINX and Cash as needed.
    Long time (2/3 of my portfolio) I want to invest in trends....healthcare, tech, and consumerism...trying to own the very best funds and the very best fund managers.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    David, thanks for posting your research on REMIX. I compared REMIX to FMSDX, looks good...see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?REMIX,FMSDX&n=455&O=011000
    Would love to hear Lynn Bolin's take on this fund as well. I am continuing to look for "defensive" funds that can offer decent returns, and was happy to discover REMIX here.
    TIA,
    Rick
  • This time it's different ?
    I’ve never seen such heightened speculation across the wide investment spectrum. There’s been spec before - but I fear the new crop of retail investors is unprepared for what may happen. Should we worry? Not a lot. But a good analogy might be driving 70-80 mph on a crowed interstate surrounded by other nearby vehicles operated by drunks or folks who aren’t watching the road. All can seem perfectly “normal” until someone begins swerving out of control and brake lights begin flashing in every direction. In the end, everyone pays for the excesses of a few.
    Noteworthy among small retail investors, there’s significant leverage being employed. And there has arisen a plethora self-made internet gurus who amass large followings ready to pounce on their next recommendation - or perhaps sell some hapless stock all on the same day. As the M* piece notes, markets can remain in a state of elevated exuberance for years or even decades. But, if history is a guide, the eventual declines can last for years at a time and be brutally painful.
    I can’t recall such wild swings in the value of some assets. Energy stands out to me, with crude oil futures going negative in early 2020 and than rapidly gaining about $140 per barrel to $86 about 15 months later. This leads me to believe there’s a lot of hot money chasing assets. If it’s happening to oil, it’s likely happening to other assets. Can’t even get my head around crypto. But it makes the above mentioned swings in oil meager by comparison. Jamie Dimon, head of J.P. Morgan, is no idiot. His assessment is that Bitcoin is worthless.
    There’s notably less public concern today than in the late 90s before the “tech-wreck” which saw the NASDAQ drop about 50% in a matter of days, while dragging down other markets along with it. It was more than a decade before the NASDAQ got back to its 2000:high. Where is Alan Greenspan with his “irrational exuberance” warnings of the late 90s? Or Vanguard with its “Trees don’t grow to the sky” cautionary statement to its investors around than?
    What to do? Anybody’s guess. None of us can predict the future. Saying that many assets are in speculative territory does not lead to any particular solution. Some of the answer resides in age, risk tolerance and individual skill-set. Some in ancillary issues like pension, home ownership, dependents, life style. A good portion of the answer, however, resides in one’s macro view of how things will evolve going forward. For example, one view is that asset prices will eventually deflate. Another view says paper currencies will be devalued (thru price inflation) making today’s asset prices reasonable. Politics (often heated) here and abroad, has also become an ingredient to be reckoned with when trying to assess the macro view. And there exists, too, a middle road on which there may be winners and losers. We tend to segregate “investments” into domestic stocks and bonds. Simplistic of course. That overlooks potentially attractive foreign markets. And there are assets like real estate, commodities, infrastructure, floating rate loans, gold and silver; as well as derivatives like puts, calls, options, futures that a skilled professional can use to advantage or to reduce overall risk in heated markets. Funds that lean on such approaches have been highlighted recently in the MFO commentary. While I own some such funds, I don’t find them particularly worthy of note.
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    The contribution limit for 401k/403b/457 plans will increase from $19,500 in 2021 to $20,500 in 2022.
    The catch-up contribution limit remains $6,500.
    Contribution limits and catch-up contribution limits for Traditional/Roth IRAs are unchanged at $6,000 and $1,000 respectively.
    HSA contribution limits for single coverage will increase from $3,600 in 2021 to $3,650 in 2022.
    HSA contribution limits for family coverage will increase from $7,200 in 2021 to $7,300 in 2022.
    The catch-up contribution limit is unchanged at $1,000.
    Refer to the article for additional contribution/income limits.
    Link