Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Resorting to individual stock purchases instead of Mutual Funds
    My Chilean electric utility play is ENIC. Institutions and big banks are shorting the ever-loving shit outa that stock. But there are some US investment banks that have recently initiated analyst coverage. I've got just $2,500 into the ADR. I got in at a decent price-point, but then it's done nothing but fall. Right now, it likes to rise in share price in the off-hours, then fall during the day. But if you were to buy NOW, it would be at quite a deep discount. The total "bet" here for me is less than 1% of my portfolio total. About 0.84% right now, since "market forces" are sucking the life out of it--- for now. Yet, there are more analysts than not who recommend BUYING at this moment. There is a dividend. I missed May's. I've read that there will be a smaller dose in December. I can't find any specifics on that. :)
    https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/enic/research-ratings
    ...Whenever I pull the trigger and put money into an individual stock, I know by now that it's about the same as punching myself in the face. Great idea.
  • RPMGX reopening
    Most of my T Rowe holdings are in taxable accounts as I will probably keep RPMGX as a taxable account also. At $130 per share, I will not get many shares for $2,500, but I will get my foot in the door.
    Mine would be in a Rollover Trad. IRA. But after the December distributions, I'm going to buy. PRWCX has treated me so very nicely, I will just transfer funds from there.
  • RPMGX reopening
    Most of my T Rowe holdings are in taxable accounts as I will probably keep RPMGX as a taxable account also. At $130 per share, I will not get many shares for $2,500, but I will get my foot in the door.
  • RPMGX reopening
    Thanks for the information as I have been waiting for RPMGX to re-open. I will wait until distributions are paid mid-December.
    You are correct as here is the SEC filing:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887147/000174177321003638/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund
    T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Portfolio
    T. Rowe Price Institutional Mid-Cap Equity Growth Fund
    Supplement to Prospectuses and Summary Prospectuses dated May 1, 2021, as supplemented
    Effective December 1, 2021, the T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund, T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Portfolio, and T. Rowe Price Institutional Mid-Cap Equity Growth Fund (Funds), each of which was closed to new investors on May 28, 2010, will resume accepting new accounts and purchases from most investors.
    Accordingly, effective December 1, 2021, the first two sentences under “Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares” in each Fund’s summary prospectus and Section 1 of each Fund’s prospectus are deleted in their entirety. In addition, in Section 2 of each Fund’s prospectus, the sub-section entitled “Closed to New Investors” is deleted in its entirety.
    Financial intermediaries and other institutional clients should contact T. Rowe Price or their relationship manager to determine eligibility to open new accounts and purchase shares of each Fund.
    The date of this supplement is October 27, 2021.
    G31-041 10/27/21
  • RPMGX reopening
    I just got an email from TRP telling me that the T. Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth Fund, RPMGX is going from closed status to restricted status. It looks like purchases must be made directly with TRP.
    If anyone desires, I can copy/paste the text from the email.
    I've been in this fund since 1998.
    Dave
  • theoretical no-growth math question

    What if:
    A. Joe begins the 25 year period by putting 50% into an S&P 500 index fund and 50% into GNMA funds
    B. After 3 years the S&P index fund has fallen 40% in value. The GNMA funds have retained their initial value.
    C. Joe than panics and moves his remaining equity balance into his GNMA funds for the duration of the 25 year term
    For simplicity, let’s assume Joe’s GNMA funds’ managers achieve an annual 3.5% return over the 25 year period as the rate on the 10 year gradually increases from under 1% initially to 5% in year 25.
    ISTM that that initial loss (near 20% of portfolio) over the first 3 years has done significant damage to Joe’s future earning prospects. (This proposition can be sliced and diced in a number of different ways.)
    -
    Taking into account the stocks losses in the beginning, I’m showing that w/o the annual withdrawals the sum after 25 years would have grown to approximately $1,787,262 (using 3.5% monthly compounding).
    Had Joe avoided stocks altogether and gone 100% into GMNA funds at the onset (3.5% average return) he’d have approximately $2,234,007 at the end of 25 years.
    Difference in return: $446,745 - Approximately 25% more without having incurred the initial stock losses
    * Neither hypothetical case takes into account Joe’s $40,000 yearly withdrawals, which would alter the numbers somewhat.
  • TSHIX
    Yes-for the risk-tolerant, FMSDX crushes the other two.
    But I see it's holding 58+ % in equities. Its category is 30-50% in equities. But that's a M* creation, anyhow. Then whatever comparison numbers you're looking at over at M* will be skewed. By how much? Yes, it does look like a fine fund. Turnover looks scary. But yield is over 3%. I look for yield. FMSDX changed its stripes in 2019. Doing much better.
  • A New M* Low
    @Crash - Thanks for the aviation tidbits. You meet all kinds for sure. Once, riding in first class years ago, a couple older gals seated behind me were downing the free alcoholic beverages as fast as they could. Sloshed by the time we landed. Obnoxiously loud. Not a great ride. “Pedestrian class” might have been better that day,
    I have no particular gripe re M*. They are what they are. I always consult at least 3 different sources before buying a new fund. I do think M* favors funds that have been hot recently in awarding stars. So there’s a good chance those stars will propel you to buying at the worst possible time while the fund is hot. Suspect that’s true of a lot of rating systems.
    FT is $12 monthly on Amazon Kindle. Six issues weekly. It only takes one really good idea, bit of information, insight, suggestion or revelation to make a huge difference in your investment approach and outcome. Ben Franklin: “An investment in knowledge always pays the best dividend.”
  • TSHIX
    +1
    Lacking a definitive answer, that’s the safest alternative. No need to do anything. Was just wondering.
  • Large Cap Growth Decision
    TRLGX. TRP. Holds the usual high-flying suspects: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Apple, Visa. PRGFX. TRP. Almost a clone of the other.
    Just noticed: HCAIX holds no bonds, as expected. But it's doing just a tiny bit better this year than PRWCX, which does hold bonds and is heavily into utilities. But you can't get in, unless you're already in.
    Morningstar puts Mairs & Power Growth MPGFX into its large-blend category. It has slipped behind the Index that Morningstar compares it to. Instituted in 1958. Only two "bad" recent years I can see: 2014 and 2017. Past 15-year performance = 10.74%, in top 13th percentile vs. "peers." Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, United Health, US Bancorp, Ecolab...
  • Large Cap Growth Decision
    I like several funds in this category - POLIX, HCAIX, FBGRX, JGQIX. You need to look at the Sector weightings and holdings concentration among other things before investing. Stating the obvious, most of the top performers over the past 5 & 10 years more than likely held the FANG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google)
  • TSHIX
    After selling all or part of a mutual fund @ Fido, is there any restriction prohibiting purchasing that same fund again a day later?
    I can think of 2 scenarios:
    1) You’ve just sold a Fido fund (after holding it 31 days) …than buy it or add to it soon thereafter.
    2) You’ve just sold a NTF fund you bought at Fido and held for 61 days … than buy it or add to it soon thereafter.
    ISTM the answer to both is that you may do so without penalty. Since I served 90 days in their “penalty box” upon arrival, I’m not interested in testing any of this out.
    (Sorry if this has already been addressed)
  • Green investments
    Also FWIW, and it may be worth plenty to anyone considering or actually BUYing FDRV...
    FDRV is a brand new relatively, lightly traded ETF. It is (mysteriously?) UP 4.92% pre-market on a coupla hundred shares traded.
    Just a WAG here, but looks like a single BUYer may have entered a Market order and got taken to the cleaners/woodshed. As an owner of FDRV, hoping it's something other than that, but...
    Moral: HIGHLY suggest using ONLY Limit orders on FDRV given its daily trading volume.
    EDIT_1: FDRV opened UP ~1%. Looks like some poor (pun intended) got burned on their pre-mrkt BUY.
    EDIT_2: Article on EVs:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/26/americans-are-buying-teslas-not-evs-heres-why-thats-about-to-change.html
    EDIT_3: Yeah, RE E_1...looks like FDRV BUYers are getting burned/today with their market orders, as it whiphaws between UP ~0.50% to ~3.0% during markets hours. Having owned it from near its inception date earlier this month, have not seen anything like this on any previous trading day so far. Noted that volume is heavy on it today, 38K shares traded by 11:30 AM with avg daily volume 40K.
    Be careful out there!
  • Sports betting
    DraftKings Walks From Potential $22.4 Billion Offer for Entain
    DFKG is up nearly 8% in pre-market trading this morning. The buyout bid has really hammered their stock the past 1-2 months. Still, with football season in high gear, I was surprised how far it slid.
    Cathie Wood is a major holder through her ARK funds. Before buying a small sliver, I looked at its largest shareholders, with VG and TRP near the top - though TRP sold some shares off earlier this year.
    As far as using their app - I haven’t accessed it since last March, as basketball is the only aspect that interests me.
    Link to Story
    Edit : DKNG finished up 4% for the day.
  • theoretical no-growth math question
    We've seen this before:
    There was once a king in India who was a big chess enthusiast and had the habit of challenging wise visitors to a game of chess. One day a traveling sage was challenged by the king. The sage having played this game all his life all the time with people all over the world gladly accepted the Kings challenge. To motivate his opponent the king offered any reward that the sage could name. The sage modestly asked just for a few grains of rice in the following manner: the king was to put a single grain of rice on the first chess square and double it on every consequent one. The king accepted the sage’s request.
    https://purposefocuscommitment.medium.com/the-rice-and-the-chess-board-story-the-power-of-exponential-growth-b1f7bd70aaca
    Reduce the number of squares on the chess board from 64 to 25 to represent the 25 years.
    Reduce the multiplier from 2x to the inflation rate (e.g. 1.025 for 2.5%)
    Instead of starting with 1 grain of rice, start with $40K scrip
    Standard mathematical technique for solving problems - transform them to something already solved.
    Even if inflation averages 2.5%/year, there's always sequence of "return" risk. You might have all the inflation in year one, in which case you'd need 25 years x $40K per year x (1.025)^25, or all the inflation could be just as Joe reaches the end of his estimated lifetime. Which brings us to longevity risk.
  • theoretical no-growth math question
    Simple calc for many of you, I am sure.
    Panicked by high equity valuations and weak bond prospects, Joe decides to put his $1M retirement egg under the mattress, for keeps. He has 25y to live, he figures. He needs to take out $40k a year to live happily. (No heirs or charities, spend to zero.)
    So he reckons he's all set if there were no inflation. But he knows that's not gonna happen.
    So ... how much extra does he need to put under the mattress and leave there in order to draw $40k annually if inflation is 2.5% a year for 25y? How about if 3% ?
  • What speculation?
    “Stock investors may be feeling a tad jealous of their crypto cousins. Bitcoin, the largest crypto-currency, blew past its record high this past week, reaching new heights around $67,000, up 50% since Sept. 30. Bulls now see a path to $100,000.”
    “After years of false starts, a Bitcoin-futures-based ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (ticker: BITO), debuted on Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange. It racked up a record $1.1 billion in assets in two days, but it already has company. Another futures ETF, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy (BTF), launched on the Nasdaq on Friday. Other futures ETFs that could win approval soon include funds from VanEck, AdvisorShares, and ARK 21Shares. The flurry of futures ETFs may be a turning point.”

    Barron’s October 25, 2021