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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bitcoin Crash?
    Following are edited excerpts from a column today by Paul Krugman.
    Last week TerraUSD, a stablecoin — a system that was supposed to perform a lot like a conventional bank account but was backed only by a cryptocurrency called Luna — collapsed. Luna lost 97 percent of its value over the course of just 24 hours, apparently destroying some investors’ life savings.
    The event shook the crypto world in general, but the truth is that this world was looking pretty shaky even before the Terra disaster. Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, peaked last November and has since declined by more than 50 percent.
    We’ve all heard of them, but what exactly are cryptocurrencies? Many people — including, I fear, many people who have invested in them — probably still don’t fully understand them. Saying that they’re digital assets doesn’t really get at it. My bank account, which I mainly reach online, is also a digital asset, for all practical purposes.
    What’s distinctive about cryptocurrencies is how ownership is established. I own the money in my bank account because the law says I do, and the bank enforces that legal claim by requiring, one way or another, that I prove that I am, in fact, me. Ownership of a crypto asset is established through what’s known as the blockchain, an encrypted (hence the name) digital record of all previous transfers of ownership that supposedly obviates the need for an external party, such as a bank, to validate a claim.
    In the past, cryptocurrencies kept going up by attracting an ever-growing range of investors. Crypto was once held by a small clique that often had the feel of a cult, motivated in part by a combination of libertarian ideology and fascination with the clever use of technology. Over time, rising crypto prices drew in large numbers of additional investors and some big Wall Street money.
    And in the past year or so, crypto marketing has gone really mainstream, with endorsements from celebrities — including Matt Damon, Kim Kardashian and Mike Tyson — not to mention political figures like Mayor Eric Adams of New York and the (unsuccessful) Republican Senate candidate Josh Mandel, who declared his intention to make Ohio “pro-God, pro-family, pro-Bitcoin.” Given all this, it’s hard to see who else there might be to recruit into crypto investing.
    In any case, as we look forward, the value of cryptocurrencies will have to rest on their underlying economic uses, which are …
    Well, that’s just the thing. I’ve heard many discussions in which crypto supporters have been asked exactly what economic role crypto can play that isn’t more easily and cheaply achieved through other means — debit cards, Venmo, etc. Other than illegal transactions, in which crypto may sometimes offer anonymity, I have yet to hear a coherent answer.
    As it is, cryptocurrencies play almost no role in economic transactions other than speculation in crypto markets themselves. And if your answer is “give it time,” you should bear in mind that Bitcoin has been around since 2009, which makes it ancient by tech standards; Apple introduced the iPad in 2010. If crypto was going to replace conventional money as a medium of exchange — a means of payment — surely we should have seen some signs of that happening by now. Just try paying for your groceries or other everyday goods using Bitcoin. It’s nearly impossible.

    And I have a fundamental question: OK, I buy a couple of "cryptocoins", thus converting standard issue "money" into an electronic record-keeping environment. So what exactly is supposed to make this magic cryptocurrency increase in value other than a ponzi-scheme dependent upon ever increasing numbers of new "investors"?
  • Bridgeway Blue Chip Fund to be reorganized into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000113743922000459/bfbcf49705172022.htm
    497 1 bfbcf49705172022.htm
    BRIDGEWAY FUNDS, INC.
    Blue Chip Fund (BRLIX)
    Supplement dated May 17, 2022
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated October 31, 2021
    At a meeting of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Bridgeway Funds, Inc. (“Bridgeway Funds”) held on May 12, 2022 (the “Meeting”), the Board unanimously approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”), providing for the reorganization of the Blue Chip Fund (the “BC Fund”) that would consist of: (i) the transfer of all of the property, assets and goodwill of the BC Fund for shares of the EA Bridgeway Blue Chip ETF (the “BC ETF”), a newly-organized series of the EA Series Trust, and (ii) the distribution of the BC ETF shares to BC Fund shareholders in complete liquidation of the BC Fund (when completed, the “Reorganization”). The Board determined that the Plan and Reorganization would be in the best interests of the BC Fund and its shareholders. The effect of the Plan and Reorganization will be that the BC Fund’s shareholders would become shareholders of the BC ETF. The BC ETF will be managed in a substantially similar manner as the BC Fund, and the BC ETF’s investment objective, principal investment strategies, and portfolio management team will be the same as that of the BC Fund.
    The Plan will require the approval of the shareholders of the BC Fund. A special meeting of the shareholders of the BC Fund is being called for that purpose. Shareholders of the BC Fund will receive proxy solicitation materials providing them with information about the BC ETF, the Plan, the Reorganization, and potential benefits to BC Fund shareholders. If approved by shareholders of the BC Fund, the Reorganization is expected to take effect during the fourth quarter of 2022 (or such other time as permitted by the Plan). It is anticipated that the Reorganization will qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes and that shareholders will not recognize any gain except as indicated in the next sentence. If the Reorganization is approved by BC Fund shareholders, any fractional shares held by shareholders will be redeemed, and the BC Fund will distribute the redemption proceeds to those shareholders, which may be a taxable event and such shareholders are encouraged to consult their tax advisors to determine the effect of any such redemption. Share purchases of the BC Fund may no longer be permitted approximately one week prior to the Reorganization. Investors should check the Bridgeway Funds’ website (bridgewayfunds.com) for further information.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Healthcare VGHCX, Value TBGVX
    +1 sven Now if only there was an etf version of VWINX !
  • List of stocks in mutual fund
    Yahoo and SeekingAlpha will also show the top 10 holdings in a fund/etf as well as many brokerage research pages.
  • Allianz Global Settles with the SEC
    From the SEC link,
    ".....Defendants reduced losses under a market crash scenario in one risk report sent to investors from negative 42.1505489755747% to negative 4.1505489755747% -- by simply dropping the single digit 2. In another example, defendants “smoothed” performance data sent to investors by reducing losses on one day from negative 18.2607085709004% to negative 9.2607085709004% -- this time by cutting the number 18 in half....."
    Sure, that would produce any "desired" Alpha.
  • "safe" investments
    @YBB. +100. So many are searching for that “safe” investment. With predictable results.
  • "safe" investments
    "Safe." That's a very relative term re: investing. In the current climate, I might be tempted to go with some military defense stocks. Northrop, Lockheed, others. Goddam that stinking war. In a different direction, I've just lately started to buy shares in a regional bank. BHB. Bar Harbor, Maine. Offices in NH and VT, too. Among regional banks, I've also discovered OCFC (NJ, NY, Philly, Balto-Wash.) And CCBG out of Tallahassee. ...Just because my timing is ALWAYS perfect, I poured some money at the New Year into the TRP Financials fund: PRISX. Now it's down YTD by -13%. Someone here urged me to stick with it. They're the ones with the dough. They'll always land on their feet. Looking into a different corner of the Market: RGR.Sturm, Ruger. Gun manufacturer in Connecticut. Doing very well. "Break a leg!"
  • "safe" investments
    There are no "safe" investments beyond CDs, I-Bonds, Treasuries (held to maturity), stable-value funds (in 401k/403b), m-mkt funds, etc, and even those may lose in real terms.
    Stick with your investments that are suitable for your risk comfort level. Your YTD loss is consistent with moderate-allocatiin.
  • Doom and gloom - when will it end
    Bottom calling is dangerous business. But there are several pointers for being closer to bottom - terrible sentiment, strange high VIX & low SKEW combo (there are discussions of this in the MFO AAII Sentiment threads of the last 2 weeks & elsewhere), etc. SP500 may be hiding lot of damage but one can look at damage already in Nasdaq Comp (also Nasdaq-100), poorly designed small-cap R2000 (also in better designed small-cap SLY), etc. There is non-confirmation too - equal-weight SP500 RSP outperforming market-cap weighted SP500.
    Another thing to watch for is the 10-yr Treasury yields - they are not responding to Fed talk/action as the fed funds, 3-mo T-Bills, 2-yr T-Note are (and should). Bond MOVE (that is bond-VIX) may have peaked. That means that Powell Fed may be forced to invert the yield-curve and that may not be far off.
    Lots of crosscurrents.
  • Doom and gloom - when will it end
    https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/doom-and-gloom-when-will-it-end?cmp=em-QYD
    If BREAKS resistance sp500 4400 --> key supports not few wks and stay there--> may moon after
    Other friend say may have bottom ( at least short terms) sp500 at 3850 last Thurs
    We Added more equities last few days very slowly testing water.
    China slow open up
    Hope everything improves soon
    Unclear when Russia slow back away from Ukraine
    401k distribution 90% stocks 10% fixed incomes no changes since 2007
  • Futures
    Tsla may moon today; making new 18wheelers
    US Dollar Rsi 80 earlier yesterday, severely overbought...maybe good time get back/ shifts toward US stocks at least short terms
    Stock Futures sky high
    Uncle Powell speaks later in afternoon hope everything already priced in
  • Artisan International Explorer Fund in registration
    I share @Tarwheel's skepticism. While the documents linked by @The Shadow are mercifully brief, they do contain some jibberish.
    1. a subject/verb agreement error ["Artisan's infrastructure and the guidance provided by David Samra allows (sic) us both to spend 100% of our time...."];
    2. the creation of a new verb ["The fund leverages the same investment philosophy and process architected (sic) by Mr. Samra….];
    3. and an off-putting characterization ["The Artisan Partners International Value Team is composed of idiosyncratic investors who share a passion for investing in companies with unrecognized value."] By my reading, this sentence means the PMs can retain their claim to being idiosyncratic only so long as the value of their investments remains unrecognized.
    I know, I know, it's just a press release. Still, words matter.
  • Grandeur Peak re-opens several funds through 3rd party financial intermediaries
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834422009699/fp0076173_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST: GRANDEUR PEAK FUNDS
    Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund
    Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund
    Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 16, 2022, TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES AND PROSPECTUS DATED AUGUST 31, 2021
    Effective May 16, 2022, the Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Opportunities Fund, Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund, Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund, and the Grandeur Peak International Stalwarts Fund (each a “Fund” and collectively the “Funds”) will reopen through financial intermediaries to shareholders who currently hold a position in a Fund. Financial advisors with clients in a Fund will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. Each Fund remains open to all participants of retirement plans currently holding a position in a Fund. The Funds also remain open to new and existing shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • "safe" investments
    Thanks for the question - Difficult to answer unless you want to go to cash or short term investment grade debt, and not likely to provide inflation protection.
    I’m not the one to comment on dividend paying stock funds. I do know enough to be extremely leery. Some are subject to severe ups and downs. DFND is one I watched as it soared to ever greater heights last year - and I almost bought it. Than it plunged 15-20% in a matter of weeks. I’d rather own a few dividend paying stocks than to trust a fund. I’m sure there are some good (conservative) ones. But be careful.
    Safer investments
    There’s been a lot of positive commentary here and in the press about Inflation Protected Treasuries (I-Bonds). Here’s one discussion: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59440/i-bond-question/p2
    Here’s one story re I-Bonds https://www.thebalance.com/i-bonds-best-safe-investment-you-can-make-2388902
    Two caveats: (1) The maximum investment (with minor exception) is $10,000. (2) The money cannot be withdrawn for at least 12 months.
    VWINX is an excellent fund. I don’t think you can go wrong with it.
    DODIX has been an excellent fund in the past. Slumped badly earlier this year along with bonds. Probably reasonably safe now - though I’d prefer to be a bit more aggressive with most of my money. I do like the bunch at D&C. They’ll stumble occasionally, but usually manage to right the ship and turn out superb longer term returns.
    Short term bond funds won’t hurt you. If short-intermediate corporate rates stabilize or fall slightly they will outperform cash by quite a bit. I don’t have a favorite. At one time PRWBX was a good one.
    Riskier investments (Mentioned in OP)
    Real estate can be extremely volatile. I’d not consider a REIT fund to be “safe” in the sense of preserving capital. That said, the ones I track appear to have come down to earth this year and so they may be a good longer term bet.
    Gold - I think a diversified portfolio should have some exposure. But it is even more volatile than real estate - easy to lose 30% in a year in a mining fund. I think for most people 3-5% + - is an appropriate allocation. I’m currently overweight on precious metals (5-7%). Just my best guess that they have a lot of room to run. I own OPGSX (mining fund), WPM (a company with significant silver exposure) and most recently GLTR (invests directly in gold, silver and other precious metals thru futures). Of the 3, I’d say GLTR is the safest - but by no means “safe.”
    Have you looked at PRPFX? I’ve long owned it. It commits about 30% to precious metals and also invests in growth stocks, bonds and other assets, It’s a better way for most people to get exposure to the metals than by investing directly in them. Down 7% this year - slightly better than VWINX.
    If you want to diversify a bit, consider: 1/3 VWINX, 1/3 PRPFX, and 1/3 PRWBX (or other investment grade short term bond fund). About as safe as you’re going to get and still keep up with inflation. This combination is down about 6% YTD. I do think their combined return for all of 2022 will look somewhat better. A lot of moving parts there. (But, for amounts of up to $10,000 I-Bonds currently represent one of the best ways to keep pace with inflation.)
  • "safe" investments
    Hi sirs nothing extremely safe
    We have so much bonds and 2015 TDF in mama portfolio T/ thought was save for retirement but not doing good
    -8% haircuts ( she was down -9% covid crash but bounces up slowly after)
    You Can do us treasury /ibonds but yields dismal since lots folks run toward it last couple months
    You can argue stocks-usa extremely cheap now and may slow heads up from here
  • "safe" investments
    Looking for advice, opinions. Any thoughts are appreciated.
    Given the expectation of more interest rate increases, messy world events, stock market volatility, inflation, what investment categories would best preserve money. I have enough for retirement but I don't want to lose any more (year to date -15% in dollars, -3% inflation).
    Which of these would you choose?
    dividend stocks VHYAX
    60/40 funds VBIAX
    40/60 funds VWINX
    intermediate bonds DODIX
    short term bonds FNSOX
    cds (3%, 3 years?)
    Other suggestions?
    gold (in what form?)
    real estate (in what form?)
    Thanks.