Interest rates on Treasury bills coming due in the next month are already rising to reflect the increasingly likely ( but still unlikely) possibility of default.

From Y Charts:
“The 1 month treasury yield is included on the shorter end of the yield curve. The 1 month treasury yield reached 0% in late 2008 as the Fed lowered benchmark rates in an effort to stimulate the economy. 1 Month Treasury Rate is at 0.06%, compared to 0.06% the previous market day and 0.09% last year.”
Well, it may be so that rates have risen. But I’m still not ready to back up the truck and start buying.
If my math is correct, $100 invested at 0.06% will net you 6 cents in a year’s time. In contrast, on just about any day you can stroll along a Michigan highway and collect discarded beverage cans and bottles which are redeemable immediately for 10 cents each.

The notion that massive inflation is a foregone conclusion because of economic stimulus is misguided: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/07/03/will-president-bidens-economic-stimulus-cause-inflation-economists-are-unsure/

The survey asked the experts whether they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: “The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.” If so, how strongly and with what degree of confidence.
Of the panel’s 43 experts, 38 participated in this survey, and the results indicate considerable uncertainty and differences in views. Weighted by each expert’s confidence in their response, 33% agree with the statement, 36% are uncertain, 26% disagree, and 4% strongly disagree. The short comments that the experts are able to include when they participate in the survey provide more details on different perspectives.

When Washington enters the irrational bats--t crazy phase as it is right now, it's good to be prudent. Trim or sell if you want to lock in gains or preserve capital, do something, do nothing ... do whatever lets you sleep well at night.
Everyone says DC will avoid a default at the 11th hour and 59th minute, and I suspect that's why the markets have been fairly tame when the debt ceiling is in the headlines these days. But given the insane nature of things around this town, I really can't help wondering if "this time is different" and their brinksmanship will backfire on them -- and us.
As for me, I'll buy into any crash and perhaps trim a bit of things to lock in gains and/or TLH going into Q4. But that's not panic, that's prudence and fairly normal investment management.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1496254/000158064221004756/alternativestrat_497.htm
497 1 alternativestrat_497.htm 497
Alternative Strategies Fund
Class A: LTAFX
Class C: LTCFX
Class I: LTIFX
Supplement dated October 4, 2021 to the Prospectus dated September 29, 2021
______________________________________________________________________
Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, Inc. currently serves as the Fund’s investment adviser and has served as its investment adviser since the Fund commenced operations on September 28, 2010. After careful consideration, Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, Inc. notified the Fund’s Board of Trustees (the “Board”) that it no longer wished to serve as the Fund’s investment adviser. At a special meeting of the Board held on September 30, 2021, the Board approved a new investment advisory agreement with SCG Asset Management, LLC (“New Advisory Agreement”), subject to shareholder approval.
In connection with the New Advisory Agreement, the Fund will be changing certain investment strategies. In pursuing the Fund’s objective, SCG Asset Management, LLC will implement strategies that focus on structured notes in addition to master limited partnerships (MLPs), real estate investment trusts (REITs) and business development companies (BDCs). Shareholders will receive a new prospectus with the Fund’s revised strategies and risks, once effective.
Currently, the Fund’s fundamental policy regarding industry concentration requires the Fund to invest more than 25% of its assets in securities related to the real estate industry. The Board also approved a change in the Fund’s industry concentration policy such that the Fund will no longer be required to invest more than 25% of its assets in securities related to the real estate industry. The change in the fundamental policy will provide SCG Asset Management, LLC greater flexibility in pursuing the Fund’s investment objective.
Under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”), shareholder approval of (1) the New Advisory Agreement between the Fund and SCG Asset Management, LLC; and (2) the change in the Fund’s industry concentration policy is required. The Fund will be holding a special meeting of shareholders to consider the approval of these two matters. It is anticipated that the special meeting of the Fund’s shareholders will be held in December 2021.
Shareholders that own shares as of the record date for the shareholder meeting will be able to vote on the New Advisory Agreement and revised fundamental policy. Shareholders who acquired their shares of the Fund after the record date will not be permitted to vote on the approval of the new investment advisory agreement. This Supplement is not a proxy and is not soliciting any proxy, which can only be done by means of a proxy statement.
The information in this supplement contains new and additional information beyond that in the Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), September 29, 2021. This supplement should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus and SAI and should be retained for future reference.

In case anyone has NOT noticed this, the national biz media tends to get a wee bit overly excited about SMALL moves DOWN in markets. Break the 50 dma and there's probably gonna be a CNBC "Markets in turmoil" special coming pretty soon. Ring the registers!
Yeah, many T/A's and investors gotta get back above the 50 to "feel safe" but several T/A guys/gals I read yesterday expressed that we'll likely be at new highs within a coupla weeks. A coupla weeks or a coupla months makes NO difference to me.
FWIW, I welcomed yesterday's slightly DOWN day to continue to build my ITOT position that I recently started but didn't get fully funded by last THU. I've recently revamped my port and started a new 5-yr portfolio effective 10/01/21. So I'm reasonably certain the BTD moves I've made in the past few days will be MUCH higher in the 5 years they'll be invested there. And the seed came from either cash, maturing CDs, and/or bond OEF sale proceeds. So there's that.
The biggest questions EVERY investor who reduces stock allocations during smallish pullbacks (like this one) and plans to re-deploy back into stocks later needs to ask is:
Am I sure the market is headed DOWN further?
Did a bell ring at the interim top?
Where am I going to park these proceeds?
Is that interim parking spot anywhere near the LT investment as the stocks I cashed them from?
WHEN does my crystal ball tell me will be the best time to re-deploy the parked proceeds back into the market?
Have I been successful with these market timing moves before?
Will I be ready when the time is right this time?
Will a bell ring when it's time?
What is my history/odds of timing this thing right on both the "Run and hide" AND "Get back in the game" moves?
And the BIGGIE: WTF do I do if I whiff on my re-deployment timing and the market moves HIGHER, or god forbid, significantly HIGHER than where it was when I ran and hid?
Is there NOT a better strategy than this one?
I employed the "Run and hide" and "Get back in the game" strategy for a while in hopes (ugh, that unviable investment strategy Art Cashin learned about over 50 years ago and routinely reminds us of ) to score a nirvana moment like dumping ALL of my money back IN the market on a day like March 20, 2020.
What's that infamous Peter Lynch quote again on this topic?
FWIW, I currently employ the BTD strategy that has been working flawlessly (for me at least) since the 2020 crash and I feel safe continuing to do it for the next 5 years.
Disclaimer: We're 65, retired for about ten years, have SS and pensions, have 96% of our port in tax-deferred a/c's, have NOT paid a dime in FIT/SIT since retiring in 2012, and have more $ than we're probably ever to be able to spend. But we're gonna start trying! YMMV.

“Powell's chances have fallen from about 80% in August to 61% as of Monday morning. The sharp decline comes amid an ongoing stock trading controversy that has ensnared several Fed governors and led to the resignations of Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan.”
Story
Third member now implicated amid growing public outcry
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida switched between $1 million to $5 million from a bond fund into stock funds a day before Chairman Jerome Powell said coronavirus poses risks to the US economy, according to his financial disclosures from 2020. Forms filed with the government ethics office show that Clarida shifted funds out of a Pimco bond fund on February 27 last year, and bought into the Pimco StocksPlus Fund and the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor exchange-traded fund on the same day, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
Story
PS - I’ve played around with the caption - not wanting to allege wrongdoing by Clarida. For better or worse, his trading has drawn suspicion and he’s become part of the larger issue.

ICLN (global renewables), PORTX (global quality, heavy U.S. & Europe, no fossil fuels), and PCEBX (Pimco climate bond, acts like a slightly lower vol core bond fund). Don't own any of them now except a fraction of 1% in ICLN to watch for a buying opp'ty.
Yep, wear the damn mask.

From GP's Chairman's letter dated 1/31/2020:
Here is a link to that letter:
https://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/documents/grandeurpeakglobal-is-20200131.pdf
Excerpt:
There is also a very important strategy that we’ve been developing for several years now, which we call Global Explorer. It follows the same idea as Global Reach, but would be managed by our geography teams rather than the industry teams. Launching Global Explorer is roughly targeted for 2021-2022.
Excerpt from the registration filing link above:
PRINCIPAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIES OF THE FUND
The Fund invests primarily in foreign and domestic micro- to mid-cap companies based on a geography-focused framework intended to identify companies that the Adviser believes are particularly well-positioned for long-term growth.
The Fund will typically invest in securities issued by companies economically tied to at least ten countries, including the United States. The Fund will invest a significant portion of its total assets (at least 40% under normal market conditions) at the time of purchase in securities issued by companies that are economically tied to countries outside the United States, including emerging and frontier market countries. The Adviser generally considers a company to be economically tied to a market based on where the company is organized, headquartered, has its primary stock exchange listing, or has substantial concentration of assets or revenues.

Amazingly, Grantham in the article says a 10% or more SPY drop is coming in the coming months. 10% or more is not news when it comes from Grantham. That is like Grantham’s breath. Sort of deflates the rest of the decent article.

Howdy folks,
The kid is selling. Sorry to be a downer but gee whiz folks, this is as frothy a market as I've ever seen or even heard of. BTD is akin to doubling down on your losing bet at the casino. Granted, I'm a momentum investor AND I have bought the dip a few times - '87 and the Gulf War, for example. This was more like buying the Crash. The difference is now, however, I see the risks far outweighing the potential rewards. Hell, we don't need a Black Swan event, we have the nightly news and it's ALL black swan. I liked Jeremy Grantham's outlook, although he's being a bit too optimistic.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/legendary-investor-jeremy-grantham-says-104259678.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAjSsNmuIEdYsi2i23Yzd7et9aMliiviWcZ4x24F7PxRP18FYK7VYZkPYkTi9LzS-A2z8iJZcQGQ8t9HSWXzx67I7XGiTgS88FsY0iTfvg7R9y0REf3p9AuYgSXJWCU-nhvGbsRKWrOLcwB4BqVfZOMMXtTppo0_XYsHCPgDXw2Q
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono

Lipper seems screwed up tonight. For several funds the YTD figure displayed in the “overview” is starkly at odds with the YTD when one brings up “performance”. And in comparing M*, Yahoo and Lipper, it’s unlikely the YTD numbers will match. I realize it’s best to go right to the institution. Works with TRP, but when I checked on DIAL (Columbia) they were current only to August 30. As interest rates have been all over the place recently, the August 30 date doesn’t tell the whole story.
For DIAL, Lipper shows roughy -1% (ytd) in its “overview”, but than lists it as -3.08% on the performance chart. Makes me wonder if the former is from some recent data bank and the latter perhaps from Columbia’s dated August 30 figure? Just curious how the double whammy of rising rates and falling stocks (high yield bonds) has affected that one.

IMHO there was no obvious point at which most people would say they would have sold TPINX, yet most people would have sold at some point. It seemed that this was a good fund to illustrate how one's sell discipline worked in "real life", given that there doesn't appear to be a "correct" answer.
Only one taker, though.
I did have a small position in TGBAX for several years, which I sold in late 2019. I held the position because I wanted, and still want, a smattering of international bonds to diversify the few bonds (funds) I do hold. Given that target allocation, I was not going to sell the fund because of lackluster absolute performance, but because of poor relative performance. Thus I compared with alternative funds.
Lipper shows only 22 international (as opposed to global) bond funds, excluding inaccessible ones like DFA. Currently, one can purchase the following tickers: BEGBX, WISEX (M* classifies as short term bond, I'd call it EM as it invests according to Sharia and seems to hold a lot in the middle east), DIBAX, LWOAX, DNIOX, EPBIX, FBIIX, MPIFX, GARBX (M* call it EM bond), HXIIX (likewise, EM bond), OIBAX, PXBZX, PFORX, PFUIX, RPIBX, TNIBX, TGBAX, TTRZX, FIBZX, TIBWX, VTABX, ESICX.
Ruling out the EM bond funds and funds that weren't even available in 2016 (FBIIX, PXBZX, TNIBX), that leaves just 16 peers not managed by Hasenstab. Of these, only 1/4, 2 PIMCO funds and 2 index funds (Vanguard, TIAA) returned more than 1.75% annualized over the past five years.
So these funds could serve as points of comparison. Here's a PortfolioVisualizer graph comparing TGBAX with the two PIMCO funds since the start of 2011. Actually, TGBAX doesn't look bad compared with PFUIX (unhedged) until 2020.
What happened was that the dollar took off in 2014 and 2015 (see graph here), hurting unhedged funds and apparently also TGBAX. Through the rest of the decade, as the dollar became rather volatile, TGBAX did not respond well. It's a unique fund in that it's a combination of a foreign bond fund and a currency fund. For example, it never had exposure to the Ukranian hryvnia. (More significantly, it tended to short developed market currencies.) The fact that it did not play currency well, which became apparent (to me) only in the late 2010s was a factor in deciding to sell. The fund was not adding value on the currency side.
I will tend to wait three year before pulling a trigger. 2017 was its worst year (relative) since 2011, and while 2018 was a relatively good year, 2019 was a disaster, in both absolute and relative terms. With increasing volatility as well. This, coupled with what now seemed a long term move into exclusively EM bonds, and the aforementioned failure to navigate currencies well said that it was time to leave. Not a single factor, but a combination.
One could easily argue that I should have left years ago. Had I known the dollar would go up so much and that the fund's purported currency expertise was not as advertised, I might have moved years ago into a hedged fund, or into a global fund.
A related question for others: why would you have bought the fund? I ask because in terms of performance being a trigger, if one buys into a type of fund (here, pure international, not hedged back to dollar), then IMHO what matters is performance relative to peers or benchmark. And one should be careful in identifying peers. Global and international funds are different, even if M* chooses to lump them together.

Pretty much #3. Mine is largely a static allocation spread across too many specific types of funds / investments to get into. I rebalance every 3 months - but only if if pre-determined allocations stray too much due to market activity. I benchmark against PRSIX (age 75). So not swinging for the fences.
I do allow up to 3% for speculative investments. Picked up some DFKG in late June & early July after a short seller blasted it. Bought at an average around $45. Closed around $50 Friday. I enjoy wagering on NCAA on the site in the winter months and figured if I enjoy using it, others may. Right now I’m debating whether to off-load a small speculative position in DOG. Bought August 30 (and reported that here). September was a nasty month for the Dow and the fund has gained around 4% since buying. I suspect there will be more Dow sell-off. However, I’m not very comfortable shorting any market. Sold a small piece several days back on a big down day and may hit the eject button one of these times. Really hard to say. At 1% of holdings, it’s of little consequence.
Point I’m making - It’s OK to play around the edges for fun or profit. But lean into the wind with your preplanned allocation. Rebalance as necessary. Ernie Harwell used to say: “Dance with the one that brung ya.”
Caveat - Having lived through a few market crashes in my lifetime, should a steep 15-30% selloff in the major indexes occur, I’d start dipping - regardless of any predetermined allocation model. Those types of opportunities don’t come along very often. Make hay while the sun shines.

Thanks @stillers for the memories. Because I moved to MI in 1970 I don’t get to see the NYG games on tv unless they are getting national coverage. As a reward I get the Lions, who managed to add yet another chapter to a long-running serial devoted to inventing a new way to lose games. A 66-yard field goal after giving up a first down on a 4th and 19?

I bought during the recent stock market dip on 9/17, S&P500 @4433 and then again on 9/21, S&P500 @4354 with these buy steps opening my fall investment spiff position which I generally hold through the winter months and then average out of during spring months moving into summer. Generally, I make six to eight percent on my fall spiffs, sometimes more, thus making me a happy camper.

@MikeM: try being a Giants fan. We never sit on the edge of our seats because there’s no drama. Does BUF have a cure for the “wide right” curse?
.

As a fan of another team...that last comment is just plain sad.
But I guess with your team
only winning 18 games over the past 4+ seasons,
having only one playoff appearance, a WC loss, in the past 9 seasons,
no W's yet this year and none in the foreseeable future,
a potentially epic bust of a (Duke? WTF?) QB whom your team inexplicably reached for with the 6th overall pick in an NFL Draft,
you're pretty much down to that old "wide right" thingie when you converse with BUF fans, eh?
BTW, refresh my memory about that ONE game that you were maybe gonna win this year against the WFT. Didn't your DL jump offsides before their K missed it (OMG!) WIDE RIGHT, allowing them to re-kick and beat your guys on the last play of the game?
So what'd'ya mean "no drama" with your team? That was pretty compelling drama to me at least.
Aside: I'm taking BUF this week in our suicide pool. My wife weekly takes whoever the NYG play. Just sayin'.
Remember: YOU started this.

One reason to question whether the mini-selloff in equity has run its course: the S&P 500 hasn't recovered to its 50 day moving average yet.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/autumn-stock-market-correction
Excerpt:
That seasonal window is now upon us, and like clockwork the market has been testing its 50-day moving average (MA). Given how many times the S&P 500 has successfully tested this support level over the past year, it wouldn't surprise me if it eventually fails to hold. Perhaps we will see a test of the 200-day moving average in the coming weeks, which would amount to a proper 10% mid-cycle correction.
Nor would it surprise me, and yes, I will BUY more stocks if it does.
Note (if you haven't already) that (beyond the headline news) a significant % of US stocks have already lost 10+%. Some think that as long as the big techs DON'T fully roll over, we're headed towards 4500-4700 by YE.

Hi guys,
Thanks to those that made comment on my post and the linked article.
I am providing a short blub on how I roll which will explain in some detail why I chose option 1. This was taken from a recent weekly briefing and market recap that I write.
Now being in the distribution phase of investing (age 74) I run an all weather asset allocation portfolio with asset weightings of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) and I can move up, or down, five percent in the bond area, in the stock area, or in both areas while letting cash float. I am presently at a neutral weighting while I await the next stock market pullback. Most likely, I will engage the stock market and overweight stocks through a special investment (spiff) position to play the rebound; and, then exit through a step sell process during the updaraft until I reach, or maintain, my desired asset allocation weighting. Generally, I rebalance at plus (or minus) two percent from my desired asset weighting. However, I can move from a low asset allocation weighting of 33% to a high asset allocation weighting of 47% in both the stock and bond areas, or some point in between, without having to do a force rebalance. At the low asset weighting (33% each) I could be as high as 34% cash and at the high asset weighting (47% each) I could be as low a 6% in cash. At first brush, what appeared to be a mudane portfolio does indeed afford for some good range in asset movement for positioning, based upon market reads, plus the portfolio generates a sufficient income stream which is important to me being retired.
From what I wrote in a recent weekly briefing and recap.
Today, September 17th being tripple witching day, with the S&P 500 Index closing at 4433 I opened my first "spiff" buy step to start my seasonal special investment position. Generally, I will load equites coming into fall, hold them during the winter, and then exit the position as spring arrives moving sell proceeds into either bond funds, cash or some of both. This is a strategy that I learned from my late father back in the 1970's as I became a more achmpolished investor. Through the years most spiffs have been beneficial for me with positive returns, but not always. Click on the below link to learn more about the strategy. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/602700/sell-in-may-and-go-away-here-we-go-again
Taken form my September 24th briefing and recap.
During the week I made my second spiff step buy. I have now made two equally weighted spiff buy steps at S&P 500 Index readings of 4433 & 4354 for a gain of 1.4% as of Friday's market close (4455). These spiff buys will open my fall seasonal investment strategy where I usually load equities coming into the fall, hold them through the winter months and then start ot lighten up coming out of winter and moving into spring. I have found that the strategy does not work every year but has worked more times than not. I generally limit the strategy to no more than five percent of my portfolio.
And, taken form my October 1st briefing and recap.
Since, I have bought equity step buy positons during the last couple weeks (during market dips opening my fall equity spiff position) this was watch the action week collecting my month and quarter end mutual fund distributions and building cash while I await bigger declines. If not, then I will continue with an average in process building my fall spiff position as we move into the winter months.
Thus, in review of the options listed in the linked article I felt option 1 was the best fit although option 3 somewhat fits because I am generally not a seller in a stock maket decline which option 2 covers although I do rebalance, from time-to-time as some have noted in their comments.
Take care and thanks for stopping by and reading.

@Stillers: "Friday was a pretty important day in which the Dip/Diplet appears (to me and the people I read/follow) to have abated. At least for the time being that is, and stopping a potential gusher after you've rolled the dice a bit is always an upbeat time for me."
Do you mind sharing with us where you read / follow those people, assuming those are public and free sites? Did these folks also mention why the market went down? It will be good for me to also read other forums.
...

Do you mind sharing with us where you read / follow those people,
No, I would rather NOT share their names/company's names. I'm getting bashed here a bit and the last thing I want to do is post names of my fave T/A's, market analysts, PMs, etal that I subscribe to/follow, and then have to fend off the additional bashing about them. Not worth my time.
assuming those are public and free sites?
No, they are not all (free) public sites. I pay for a coupla investment service newsletters.
Did these folks also mention why the market went down?
Hmmm...first, a LOT of investors/media get bent out of shape over DOWN moves of 5% in the overall market. That's still in the normal market breathing range for me. Yes, they all state their thoughts on the specific reasons for this LITTLE move DOWN we've had recently. They of course vary. That said, IF there's a consensus among them, it's that the recent action was highly predictable/widely expected and normal market breathing.
It will be good for me to also read other forums.
You can read "forums" until you're blue in the face. LOTS of threads out here frequented by LOTS of posters with varying levels of investment experience and expertise (yeah, they're different). There were a couple posters who have made me "real" money over the past 10 years, namely the old M* CEF Forum crew who daily, for years, provided a pretty much paint-by-numbers plan to profit from FI CEFs, and the poster who got me to fully understand and apply his main investment axiom, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth." They are more the exception than the rule of forums. Kindly suggest finding some worthy professionals to regularly read. I will throw out two names. Start with Katie Stockton (for T/A) and Jurrien Timmer (for market perspective). See if you like them and if not, find someone that you do. Also, disregard the widespread bashing of CNBC. They have regulars and guests on there who provide priceless, free, current analysis on the market. Three notable PMs who are regulars on there are amongst my faves for market analysis and portfolio construction.