https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-look-at-your-401k-2020-03-16
/Don’t look at your 401(k)
Published: March 16, 2020 at 9:51 a.m. ET
By Brett Arends
Yes, it’s down now — but that won’t matter when you retire/
Best advice heard all day
Along with getting few kegs Heineken

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4332110-15-safe-blue-chips-to-buy-during-this-bear-market
ry Safe Blue Chips To Buy During This Bear Market
CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD
The bear market so many have long feared is here. Stocks didn't just enter a bear market last week, they crashed into one with gusto.
COVID-19 panic, combined with worst oil crash since the Financial Crisis, have combined to create a perfect storm of fear, literally the second highest in 30 years.
However, regardless of when this bear market ends (and it surely will), great companies are always on sale, BUT especially when the market is panicking.
CFR, UMBF, ADM, CAT, GD, PH, CNI, GWW, MDT, SWK, TJX, ROST, CB, ADP and APD are 15 very safe blue chips who have collectively delivered 15% CAGR returns over the last 23 years.
From today's 25% undervaluation they could deliver about 17% CAGR long-term returns. Just don't forget to always use the right asset allocation for your needs, because when the bears roar on Wall Street, almost no stock is spared short-term pain

I'm going to finally start a cash-position. All my "cash" is just the combined amount that my Fund Managers are sitting on. I can't believe things will turn around before the election in November. If things bounce-back quickly, I won't be sad. What about the prospect of a 1930s extended Depression? Oil is one good indicator. Bouncing around like a yo-yo. I paid for more expensive gas in California in October than I ever have in Hawaii. And generally, Hawaii's gas is 30% higher than I was accustomed to, back East. (Something about the "West coast rip-off" I have been told about, besides.) Now, oil has taken a tumble. ..... History teacher long ago told us that in the '30s, you could buy a whole meal at a not-so-fancy restaurant for a quarter. ..... But with the gummint greasing the economy, DEFLATION doesn't seem like any kind of realistic prospect. These massive debt numbers leave me numb. What is the dollar worth, anymore? Two cents? Portfolio is down from the recent high by -15%. That's digestible, though not pleasant, of course. I moved a big chunk to bonds last year, and that helps, but bonds are still sinking along with everything else, notwithstanding.... Gonna send a small amount to BIAWX.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks-will-rally-coronavirus-outbreak
Wishful but may not out teach thinkings

Lucky if back to even in 5 years but NOBODY knows. Many people will find they weren't comfortable with their current asset allocation. They will be re-balancing and pulling out of stocks as they get "back to even" or close to back to even so there will be major headwinds IMHO

There's a conference call at 5:30 EDT today: https://info.crossingbridgefunds.com/credit-market-update-call
You're welcome to join!

Tweedy's newly-issued letter on markets and pandemics speaks sensibly. The firm reminds readers that it's more than a century old, so they have the experience to see occasional crashing-and-burning as part of the price of admission. They point out that the last 25 years has seen a long series of catastrophes - two currency meltdowns in the EMs, the Russian debt default, LTCM debacle, 9/11, the '07-09 GFC - and a market that's returned nearly 500%, cumulatively.
I rather liked their conclusion:

... at times like this, we actually begin to feel better about our prospects for future returns. That said, our and your ability to have a successful investment experience depends in large part on the willingness to “stay on the bus.” The ride can be bumpy, but you ultimately have to stay on board to have any chance of reaching your destination. As Margaret Thatcher famously said to George Bush Sr. just before the start of the Kuwait War in 1990, “Remember George, this is no time to go wobbly.”

On a passing note, I just been trying to add to my BIAWX holdings but thwarted by TD's $50 transaction fee. Their soon-to-be parent sells the fund NTF, so I'm trying to see if there's any flex available.
Take care, David

One of the most aggressive "allocators" I have run across is American Association of Individual Investors "Level three" portfolio. James Cloonan spends an entire book trying to prove that there has never been a period longer than five years where the market has not recovered.
I looked at SPY from it's peak in 2008 and discovered that in fact it took seven years if I remember. In the 1930s it took longer if you start at the very peak.
70 % is probably too heavy a stock allocation that close to retirement if he needs to live on the assets at retirement. It is probably too late to do anything, but I think this will rival the drop in 2003-2009 which was 45% so if it will torture him in the next seven or more years he could lighten up stocks, but no one can tell him when.
Will the market be higher sometime between now and when he retires? Probably but who knows?
THE WSJ has a chart of the price at various levels of PE but no one knows what the E will be. We are also seeing a dramatic de risking so the PE will clearly fall
I am on the pessimistic side and I think calls that this will be over in early summer are too optimistic. It may slow but will probably come back until their is an effective vaccine.
Having said that there will probably be a better time to reduce his equity exposure in the months ahead

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834420006030/fp0051857_497.htm
FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
SUPPLEMENT DATED MARCH 16, 2020 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUSES AND
PROSPECTUS FOR THE GRANDEUR PEAK GLOBAL MICRO CAP FUND AND GRANDEUR
PEAK INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND (EACH A "FUND," AND TOGETHER,
THE "FUNDS") DATED AUGUST 31, 2019
Effective March 18, 2020, the Grandeur Peak Global Micro Cap Fund will reopen to shareholders who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund is already open to all participants of retirement plans currently holding a position in the Fund.
Also, effective March 18, 2020, the Grandeur Peak International Opportunities Fund will reopen through financial intermediaries to financial advisors who currently hold a position in the Fund. Financial advisors with clients in the Fund will be able to invest in the Fund for both existing as well as new clients. The Fund is already open to all participants in existing retirement plans in the Fund. The Fund is also already open to both existing and new shareholders who purchase directly from Grandeur Peak Funds.
INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

@johnN - Maybe you and your friend might benefit from reading this article today from Michelle Singletary at the Washington Post in her Personal Finance column.
Where to Now

"He was asking me when DOWS reach new highs >31K again so he can slowly pull out and go 50/50 before retirement"
NO ONE I repeat NO ONE can answer that question. Period. They can guess all they want but they would just be guessing.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-far-can-stocks-fall-coronavirus-market-turmoil-has-investors-asking-whats-priced-in-2020-03-15?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
How far can stocks fall? Coronavirus market turmoil has investors asking what’s priced in
The most brutal week on Wall Street since 2008 saw stocks complete their fastest ever fall from all-time highs to a bear market. Here’s how some investors are attempting to assess what’s priced in and where markets go from here.

Do not look so rosy.

Retail sales plunged 20.5% during January and February over the same period in 2019, industrial output was down 13.5%, and fixed asset investment fell by nearly 25%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. All three data points were much weaker than analysts were expecting, and the decline in industrial production was the sharpest contraction on record.
The data for March could be even worse.
"The slump in February was diluted in the data by being averaged with January, when most of the disruptions were yet to be felt," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics.

The Fed just shot their bolt. Or maybe they were giving a one finger salute to the White House and Capital Hill.
Let's get fiscal, fiscal
I want to get fiscal
Let's get into fiscal
Let me hear your policy talk, your policy talk
Let me hear your policy talk

A look at pre-market (9AM) issues for Treasury/corp. items:
--- SHY = (1-3 yr bills) +.3%
--- IEI = (3-7 yr notes) +1.2%
--- IEF = (7-10 yr notes) +1.9%
--- TLT = (20+ Yr UST Bond +4.3%
--- EDV = (Vanguard extended duration gov't) side ways all pre-market morning
--- LQD = (corp. bond proxy) -5%
Midnight/Monday found the most positive actions with most of these issues. The positive price gains at 9AM pre-market have dropped overnight.
Reference note: long term Treasury's were +11% range at 1am
I can't offer more, and will watch, too.

Hope you are good
my friend will retire in ~ 6 or 7 yrs, he lost 27% of porfolio past 4 wks. He is well diversified I think 70% stocks 30% bonds mostly in index and Target dated funds 2030
He was asking me when DOWS reach new highs >31K again so he can slowly pull out and go 50/50 before retirement
I told him maybe good to consider changing porfolio 6-12 months prior your retirement maybe heavy in bonds [like others did here when DOWS 28K or so RIGHT prior to crashes].
Any Ideas? 2023? IMHO - I think it may take awhile for this to recover few months and then we may have slow downs, maybe takes some times to market to recover/heal and start upswings again so could be 12-36 months before see DOWS 30K again. But we never know, it maybe there again in 6-8 months.

YTD Should one buy the big gapping declines of 4, 5 or 6% on a given day or abstain? Normally I’d say buy. But this global health issue throws us into unknown waters.

I was thinking about buying today, until the Fed, and the Pres, intervened.
Maybe tomorrow.
At this point I'm hoping the TP knuckleheads are on the sidelines contemplating their hoards so normal people can get what they need.

YTD DSENX lags the S&P by a couple points. But 2.5 months is too short a period to compare. My benchmark TRRIX (40/60) is down about 9% and I’m off another 1 percent more than it is this year. Both are manageable losses considering last year.
This is the point where it begins to get really dicey. Should one buy the big gapping declines of 4, 5 or 6% on a given day or abstain? Normally I’d say buy. But this global health issue throws us into unknown waters. Bloomberg quoted one analyst this morning as predicting that virtually every airline in the world will be facing bankruptcy by May. I find it hard to argue with that. Who wants to fly? The airlines’ woes are one reason oil is approaching its 2016 low of $26-$27.
Plenty of questions. Few answers. I guess Dalio and many other heggies have sustained a real beating this year.

last 11 days down ~12%, SP500 down ~10%, bond sauce aggravating things rather than the opposite

But oh, those monthly dividends just keep adding more shares.

All my figs are from M* graph of $10k growth, so includes divs, not that it is computed daily ...

I understand.
But one of the reasons I bought it was for the monthly dividends. Sort of like dollar cost averaging.

last 11 days down ~12%, SP500 down ~10%, bond sauce aggravating things rather than the opposite

But oh, those monthly dividends just keep adding more shares.

All my figs are from M* graph of $10k growth, so includes divs, not that it is computed daily ...

@davfor Oahu? You're just in time for the flooding from the Kona Low. 4:30 p.m. and finally some sunshine here on the Windward side.

Molokai. East end condo. There has been a Flash Flood alert for the past 24 hours or so but the weather has been OK here today. The view is across the Paniolo Channel to Maui (Kapalu and the surrounding part of the island). We owned a condo on Molokai for about 15 years that we sold in 2015 or 2016 (I have never had what is commonly called a good memory). I have been missing the old Hawaii slowed down feeling of this island. So, I am here for a short stay....probably will be back for a longer period next winter. (We also lived in Kauai and built a house there during the mid-80's.) You are in Honolulu, yes?
By the way, here are 2 Fed statements from today:
https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315a.htm
https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200315c.htm