Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
REMINDER: Here's Who Gets Crushed If Greece Goes Bust
Man, what a crazy end of the day...these kinds of movements make me realize we are dealing with a market that trades on rumors and perceived risk / reward. Many investors must think that the market is like an out of control kid whose mom tries to reestablish order by declaring..."wait 'til your father gets home".
As a young hellion I often was sent to the front stoop to wait out this very unnerving kind of outcome. I sat there hoping dad would stop at the local tavern first forgetting that mom called. I think the waiting was worse than the whack.
Just let the market take its whacks and let's move on with this...not that I would ever welcome a hit to my portfolio.
The nano-seconds within which trading can be done via computer today only exacerbates everything, with the yank downward, then upward. But methinks the Big Picture amounts to a Death Spiral downward with random upticks along the way until a Black Swan savior shows up. No one can predict what that might be, and there will be those who lose their shirt when that Black Swan shows up to redeem everyone ELSE.
Saw an article today (at Yahoo, don't recall the real source, sorry) that the Euro 'authorities' have already publicly agreed on a 21% haircut for holders of Greek bonds. The figure I've seen for the ultimate buzz cut of default is between 50 and 90%. So, if it's closer to 50% than that other godawful number, nearly half of the wipeout is already priced in. (Of Greece alone; the virus spreading to Portugal, Ireland, and maybe beyond is apparently going to a big fear for some time.)
I agree with Maurice; they ought to just go ahead and trot out an 'orderly' default package. They could take over and recapitalize the banks that can't survive, like Sweden did in the '90s.
Comments
But hey, the market just went up about 370 points (from -220 to +151) within the span of about 45 minutes or so. lol. Healthy crackhead markets.
Man, what a crazy end of the day...these kinds of movements make me realize we are dealing with a market that trades on rumors and perceived risk / reward. Many investors must think that the market is like an out of control kid whose mom tries to reestablish order by declaring..."wait 'til your father gets home".
As a young hellion I often was sent to the front stoop to wait out this very unnerving kind of outcome. I sat there hoping dad would stop at the local tavern first forgetting that mom called. I think the waiting was worse than the whack.
Just let the market take its whacks and let's move on with this...not that I would ever welcome a hit to my portfolio.
bee
I agree with Maurice; they ought to just go ahead and trot out an 'orderly' default package. They could take over and recapitalize the banks that can't survive, like Sweden did in the '90s.