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Oil: Significent Iraq Disruptions, Unlikely, Morgan Stanley Says
Oppenheimer senior energy analyst Fadel Gheit said the oil stocks are overpriced and are trading as if crude was going to stay at $110 per barrel.
"It really depends on what the balance of power is going to be a month from now, a year from now," Gheit said. "The Sunnis are left basically with nothing but arms because they were excluded from the government. They have no oil resources. The Kurds took their share, and the Baghdad government wants to keep their share. Maliki is not an inclusive prime minister. he's doing what Saddam Hussein did but the opposite way. He favored his own tribe over another." An Alarmist's Worst Case? As the second-largest and fastest-growing producer in OPEC, Iraq has been pumping 3.3 million barrels a day. OPEC's quota is 30 million barrels. So far, oil production has not been disrupted, but a northern pipeline that takes oil from Kirkuk to Turkey has been damaged by militant assaults and has been out of service since March.
"If they can hold onto Baghdad, and the south of Iraq, 3 million barrels will continue to flow and it won't be a big deal," said John Kilduff, energy analyst with Again Capital. "Any credible threat to central Baghdad or the oil fields— it's $150 just for starters."
I have energy positions in GAGEX ,CRZAX ,CSHAX and NORW.Also two small Canadian plays CDLRF and CESDF .All are at or near Y T D or all-time highs. Blind Hog ! Energy Statistics and World View. Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, with 33% of global energy demand, but lost market share to other fuels for the 14th consecutive year. China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest net oil importer, bringing in 7 million barrels a day. Coal consumption increased by 3% in 2013, below its yearly average of 3.9% but enough to put coal’s share of world energy consumption at 30%, its highest since 1970, BP said in its 63rd annual statistical review on Monday. The review is an industry benchmark. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2014/06/16/renewable-energy-demand-rises-to-record-2-7-of-global-consumption/?mod=WSJBlog
For 63 years, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy has provided high-quality objective and globally consistent data on world energy markets. The review is one of the most widely respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy economics, used for reference by the media, academia, world governments and energy companies. A new edition is published every June.Highlights: World proved natural gas reserves at end-2013 stood at 185.7 trillion cubic metres (tcm), sufficient to meet 54.8 years of global production. Total world proved oil reserves reached 1687.9 billion barrels at the end of 2013, sufficient to meet 53.3 years of global production. World proved coal reserves in 2013 were sufficient to meet 113 years of global production, by far the largest R/P ratio for any fossil fuel. World coal production increased by 0.8% in 2013, well below the 3% increase in global consumption. Indonesia (+9.4%) recorded the largest production increment – the first time since 1998 that China did not have the largest growth increment. Global consumption growth was below average but was once again the fastest among fossil fuels. China and India accounted for 88% of global growth World nuclear power generation increased by 0.9%, the first increase since 2010. Gains in the US, China, and Canada more than offset declines in South Korea, Ukraine, Spain and Russia. Global hydroelectric output grew by a below-average 2.9%. Growth in China, Russia, Spain and India was partly offset by large declines in Brazil and the Nordic countries 48 Page Review: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf
Comments
"It really depends on what the balance of power is going to be a month from now, a year from now," Gheit said. "The Sunnis are left basically with nothing but arms because they were excluded from the government. They have no oil resources. The Kurds took their share, and the Baghdad government wants to keep their share. Maliki is not an inclusive prime minister. he's doing what Saddam Hussein did but the opposite way. He favored his own tribe over another."
An Alarmist's Worst Case?
As the second-largest and fastest-growing producer in OPEC, Iraq has been pumping 3.3 million barrels a day. OPEC's quota is 30 million barrels. So far, oil production has not been disrupted, but a northern pipeline that takes oil from Kirkuk to Turkey has been damaged by militant assaults and has been out of service since March.
"If they can hold onto Baghdad, and the south of Iraq, 3 million barrels will continue to flow and it won't be a big deal," said John Kilduff, energy analyst with Again Capital. "Any credible threat to central Baghdad or the oil fields— it's $150 just for starters."
Kilduff said any spike higher would probably fade quickly, but consumer confidence would plunge, and it would launch an energy crisis because Saudi Arabia, the global swing producer, cannot make up that much lost capacity.
Originally here.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/1803223-some-analysts-say-energy-stocks-are-getting-too-hot
More detail here.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101763888
Other Energy News and Background.
BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks energy stocks will benefit:
The recent unrest in the Middle East and the potential for higher oil prices confirms our views on two sectors: positive on energy while negative on U.S. retailers and other consumer stocks. Year-to-date, energy has been one of the best-performing sectors while consumer discretionary has trailed the broader market.
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2014/06/16/buy-energy-sell-consumer-discretionary-as-higher-oil-prices-set-to-linger/
I have energy positions in GAGEX ,CRZAX ,CSHAX and NORW.Also two small Canadian plays CDLRF and CESDF .All are at or near Y T D or all-time highs. Blind Hog !
Energy Statistics and World View.
Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, with 33% of global energy demand, but lost market share to other fuels for the 14th consecutive year.
China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest net oil importer, bringing in 7 million barrels a day.
Coal consumption increased by 3% in 2013, below its yearly average of 3.9% but enough to put coal’s share of world energy consumption at 30%, its highest since 1970, BP said in its 63rd annual statistical review on Monday. The review is an industry benchmark.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2014/06/16/renewable-energy-demand-rises-to-record-2-7-of-global-consumption/?mod=WSJBlog
For 63 years, the
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
has
provided high-quality objective and globally consistent data on
world energy markets. The review is one of the most widely
respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy
economics, used for reference by the media, academia, world
governments and energy companies. A new edition is published
every June.Highlights:
World proved natural gas reserves at end-2013 stood at 185.7 trillion cubic metres (tcm), sufficient to meet 54.8 years of global production.
Total world proved oil reserves reached 1687.9 billion barrels at the end of 2013, sufficient to meet 53.3 years of global production.
World proved coal reserves in 2013 were sufficient to meet 113 years of global production, by far the largest R/P ratio for any fossil fuel.
World coal production increased by 0.8% in 2013, well below the 3% increase in global consumption. Indonesia (+9.4%) recorded the largest production increment – the
first time since 1998 that China did not have the largest growth increment. Global consumption growth was below average but was once again the fastest among fossil
fuels. China and India accounted for 88% of global growth
World nuclear power generation increased by 0.9%, the first increase since 2010. Gains in the US, China, and Canada more than offset declines in South Korea, Ukraine,
Spain and Russia. Global hydroelectric output grew by a below-average 2.9%. Growth in China, Russia, Spain and India was partly offset by large declines in Brazil and
the Nordic countries
48 Page Review:
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf