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The Moose Has Made Another Signal Change ... Back to ILF

edited September 2014 in Fund Discussions
Recently, the Moose made a signal change from ILF to EDV back on August 22nd. For those that followed this signal ... sorry you lost about one percent. He has now moved back into ILF. I am linking both the signal and the history links below.

http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html

http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

So that you know, I watch what the Moose does for information purposes because I find interest in doing this. However, rarely do I key off his signals for single position swings. I'll use the signal more as a weather vane in looking for the faster present market currents. And, I try to make sure I have some representation of the assets he is keying on held within my own portfolio. I did key off his signal about a year ago, or so, and increased my weighting to the small/mid sleeve of my portfolio. Once, he started to leave small caps for another asset class I started to lighten up a bit in my small cap holdings. And, when he began to move into ILF I also had begun to add to an emerging market fund that held a good bit in Latin America (DEMAX) ... and, I still am with that move today. And, I might add a bit more to it in the near future as it currently holds a good bit in Eastern Europe too.

Old_Skeet

Comments

  • He moves from Latin American stocks to extended duration Treasuries, with a 25 year duration? If the interest rate on 25 year Treasuries were to go up 1%, the principal/NAV would go down by 25%.

    This Moose is no stranger to risk. Latin American stocks are also not the lowest risk thing around either.
  • Hey Rocky, watch me pull a signal out of my hat.

    I couldn't help it.
  • Hi John,

    That was good and clever ... and, I kinda know what you mean ... as I have been following the old moose for sometime now mostly watching what he does ... I guess being a Rocky. I felt it strange for him to leave ILF and move into EDV, stay there about two weeks and then move back to ILF. Seems, he got wip sawed in the last move and lost about one percent of his money in doing so. I have found it best not to jump around and if you make a strategy move do so feeling that it has some legs.

    I never even thought of cutting my allocation in emerging markets when he left ILF and went to EDV ... I wonder how long he will stick with ILF, now that he has moved back to it.

    We shall see ... as Rocky is watching.

    Old_Skeet
  • It sounds like a impulsive move which you would not expect from Mr. Dirlam.
  • Honest to Pete! If folks are making financial adjustments/decisions on what a moose bellows/brays/bleats, or whatever moose do, then they really need to rethink their goals and objectives. Sorry, but what a waste of time.
  • edited September 2014
    Hi Mark,

    I have copied and pasted ... below ... How I use the Moose's signals. And, I use a lot of data feeds and my reading of the thoughts of others in positioning my own portfolio. And, for me it has been ... So-far, So-Good. Naturally, I don't act on everything I read.

    So that you know, I watch what the Moose does for information purposes because I find interest in doing this. However, rarely do I key off his signals for single position swings. I'll use the signal more as a weather vane in looking for the faster present market currents. And, I try to make sure I have some representation of the assets he is keying on held within my own portfolio. I did key off his signal about a year ago, or so, and increased my weighting to the small/mid sleeve of my portfolio. Once, he started to leave small caps for another asset class I started to lighten up a bit in my small cap holdings. And, when he began to move into ILF I also had begun to add to an emerging market fund that held a good bit in Latin America (DEMAX) ... and, I still am with that move today. And, I might add a bit more to it in the near future as it currently holds a good bit in Eastern Europe too. Eastern Europe is believed to presently offer some good value and I look at this as a trun-a-round move.
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