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Added yesterday slightly to Janus Overseas (still averaging into small position; it's having a horrible year, but I'm taking the approach of, "If I'm going to make a small long-term bet on one fund that's performing ----- this year, I'll make it this one."), Marketfield, AQR Risk Parity, Cohen & Steers EM Real Estate and Pimco Commodity RR.
Here is my current take ... and, my current course of action plan.
I am waiting for Santa to come ... so, I can sell into his traditional rally that usuaslly begins around Thanksgiving and goes through the first part of January as I was a buyer of equities back in the summer. My thoughts are as we move into 2012 things will continue to deminish in the stock market as 2012 is a presidential election year ... and, the political wrangling that most likely will be found during the year will have a negative effect on the markets. However, there most likely will be some counter trend rally's during this period that one might position into for the short term. Currently, I am about 60% equity and most likely will reduce this to the 50% to 55% range while raising cash by a like amount. This will afford me available cash to venture into some short term special strategies during this time. Long term, I think equities are the place to be as the S&P 500 Index is selling back of a current P/E Ratio of 12, by my math, and Morningstar's Market Valuation Graph is showing stocks in general ar at about a 15% discount to their fair value.
So many ways to value the U.S. stock market - the Shiller P/E 10 is just below 20, or about 20% above its long-term mean of 16.4.
Only buying in this house lately is around the edges: added to both the S&P 500 index & total bond index in the index-only 401k, zeroing out a short-term bond position, to roughly the equivalent of a U.S. conservative-plus allocation fund; a touch of Dem on weakness; and a moderate add to Dlfnx, Gundlach's "other" fund. Waiting patiently for what I interpret as a good time to add significant $ to Artkx and Arivx and maybe a global or foreign bond fund - may not happen for a while.
In my IRA, I recently sold some RYMXX and bought some RYCWX, RYWYX, RYVNX, RYIRX, and RYTPX. I did this based on charts of technical indicators, overlays, and market indicators.
No changes in taxable account, majority of which consists of three allocation funds (OAKBX, FPACX and PRPFX), with smaller amounts in other equity funds. In my momentum portfolio, got out of stocks earlier as they fell below 200 day average again. That portfolio is currently 2/3rd in GLD.
This question, of course; is your option of whether to note other portfolio holdings to the board. Is the purchase of your indicated inverse funds being used to "offset" equity funds you still choose to hold, or that you hold no equity funds and are taking advantage of the broad equity sectors downturn to obtain profits with the use of these indexes?
Catch, I am following my charts and have a large portion of my portfolio in the 5 Rydex funds that I mentioned, hoping to take advantage of the downtrend. The rest is in low risk investments - sort of a barbell portfolio, but still risky overall.
This house will consider exiting some equities if this thing holds for a few days. Tis not difficult to discover a reversal of the same magnitude; although equity fund managers surely would like another month of the good stuff.
Sold some stuff yesterday, raing even more cash. In my 40+ years investing, this is the most unstable mkt I've ever seen. I'm not a mkt timer, but do believe in buy low/sell high with my non core investments. That being said, when the market drops again, I'll add a dividend paying equity fund that has limited exposure to the financial sector.
Comments
Here is my current take ... and, my current course of action plan.
I am waiting for Santa to come ... so, I can sell into his traditional rally that usuaslly begins around Thanksgiving and goes through the first part of January as I was a buyer of equities back in the summer. My thoughts are as we move into 2012 things will continue to deminish in the stock market as 2012 is a presidential election year ... and, the political wrangling that most likely will be found during the year will have a negative effect on the markets. However, there most likely will be some counter trend rally's during this period that one might position into for the short term. Currently, I am about 60% equity and most likely will reduce this to the 50% to 55% range while raising cash by a like amount. This will afford me available cash to venture into some short term special strategies during this time. Long term, I think equities are the place to be as the S&P 500 Index is selling back of a current P/E Ratio of 12, by my math, and Morningstar's Market Valuation Graph is showing stocks in general ar at about a 15% discount to their fair value.
Good Investing,
Skeeter
Only buying in this house lately is around the edges: added to both the S&P 500 index & total bond index in the index-only 401k, zeroing out a short-term bond position, to roughly the equivalent of a U.S. conservative-plus allocation fund; a touch of Dem on weakness; and a moderate add to Dlfnx, Gundlach's "other" fund. Waiting patiently for what I interpret as a good time to add significant $ to Artkx and Arivx and maybe a global or foreign bond fund - may not happen for a while.
Let's hear it for Santa ...
Best, AJ
Nice move.
You're having a fine day today.
Let us know when you exit this strategy.
Flack
That portfolio is currently 2/3rd in GLD.
This question, of course; is your option of whether to note other portfolio holdings to the board.
Is the purchase of your indicated inverse funds being used to "offset" equity funds you still choose to hold, or that you hold no equity funds and are taking advantage of the broad equity sectors downturn to obtain profits with the use of these indexes?
Thank you and take care,
Catch
Catch, I am following my charts and have a large portion of my portfolio in the 5 Rydex funds that I mentioned, hoping to take advantage of the downtrend. The rest is in low risk investments - sort of a barbell portfolio, but still risky overall.
Tony
Tony
This house will consider exiting some equities if this thing holds for a few days. Tis not difficult to discover a reversal of the same magnitude; although equity fund managers surely would like another month of the good stuff.
Take care,
Catch