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Looking for that lucky quarter we get out and flip on occasions like this. It's here somewhere ... In the meantime, I'll do some nibbling at around 16,000 on the Dow (of course that's but one measure). But I wouldn't deploy cash aggressively at that level.
As always ... your commitment to equities depends very much on time horizon, needs, and other factors.
Thanks for posting this Seeking Alpha article. It is well written and the comments on the strategies discussed I found to be of good reading. My thoughts are that there is a good possibility of a 250 point drop in valuation for the S&P 500 Index from its recent high of 2020 but there is no certainity to this happening. This would put it in a downdraft spin by my defination. My thoughts are that I'll buy at every 50 point drop from the 2020 mark with a sum equal to about one percent of the cash held within my portfolio. Should the Index reach my targeted 1770 range then this will leave me with about 10% cash plus whatever my mutual funds hold and leave me at about a 15% cash level in the near term. Under my plan, I will have bought at 1970, 1920, 1870, 1820, and 1770 ranges which when averaged will average to a buy-in at the 1895 range. With the large year end cash distributions that I expect from my mutual funds to make then my cash levels could be restored pretty close to their current 20% level with no action on my part even after considering my most recent buys.
I like to average-in, in a market decline and average-out in a market bull run. Should the market decline to the 1770's as it might then once it has bottomed and turned then I'll start averaging-out, by about one percent of equity valuation, at every 25 point climb from the 1900 level until a full cash position has been obtained. This is what I did once the Index reached the 1600 level a while back.
I am by no means saying the market will perform to my thinking and others should goven by their own thinking and not mine. I am writting this only for information puropses as to how I manage my portfolio with respect to both bullish and bearish stock market movement.
Hopefully, 3rd quarter corporate earnings will be good and a fall stock market rally will be coming in the near term. As the article states the upcoming week will provide some insight as to how the 4th quarter might be looking.
@ Old_Skeeter: In a prior link & or comment, talk of averaging down came up. Wouldn't your average-in be considered doing the same thing. Seems to me this wasn't a good thing to be doing! I must admit, to me stock & mutual funds would be two different critters . Enjoy your Sunday, Derf
I have done this before and it works if your averaging in or out happens at the earlier stages of the said markets. There has to be some holding period in order for the investments to gain on.
Comments
http://www.businessinsider.com/dallas-hospital-employee-tests-positive-for-ebola-2014-10
Sometimes the term black swan is thrown out indiscriminately but if this virus escalates further I think black swan is appropriate.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
As always ... your commitment to equities depends very much on time horizon, needs, and other factors.
Thanks for posting this Seeking Alpha article. It is well written and the comments on the strategies discussed I found to be of good reading. My thoughts are that there is a good possibility of a 250 point drop in valuation for the S&P 500 Index from its recent high of 2020 but there is no certainity to this happening. This would put it in a downdraft spin by my defination. My thoughts are that I'll buy at every 50 point drop from the 2020 mark with a sum equal to about one percent of the cash held within my portfolio. Should the Index reach my targeted 1770 range then this will leave me with about 10% cash plus whatever my mutual funds hold and leave me at about a 15% cash level in the near term. Under my plan, I will have bought at 1970, 1920, 1870, 1820, and 1770 ranges which when averaged will average to a buy-in at the 1895 range. With the large year end cash distributions that I expect from my mutual funds to make then my cash levels could be restored pretty close to their current 20% level with no action on my part even after considering my most recent buys.
I like to average-in, in a market decline and average-out in a market bull run. Should the market decline to the 1770's as it might then once it has bottomed and turned then I'll start averaging-out, by about one percent of equity valuation, at every 25 point climb from the 1900 level until a full cash position has been obtained. This is what I did once the Index reached the 1600 level a while back.
I am by no means saying the market will perform to my thinking and others should goven by their own thinking and not mine. I am writting this only for information puropses as to how I manage my portfolio with respect to both bullish and bearish stock market movement.
Hopefully, 3rd quarter corporate earnings will be good and a fall stock market rally will be coming in the near term. As the article states the upcoming week will provide some insight as to how the 4th quarter might be looking.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Enjoy your Sunday,
Derf