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Here’s some “expert” advice from an October 6th Bloomberg article entitled “Strategists See Biggest S&P 500 Gain Since ‘98”.
“Wall Street strategists say the Standard & Poors 500 index…will post the biggest fourth-quarter rally in 13 years”. In August the consensus among 12 “experts” was a year-end close at 1401.
That’s roughly a 21% increase from today’s level! Please don’t hold your breath.
I sometimes talk back to the folks chatting about such things; be it from a web page or those projected to us upon the flat screen. I am, by no means a brilliant investment thinker; but I do recall the 1st year after the market melt and the experts comparing the period as similar to the recession of 1982. My small pea brain thought, no way. The manufacturing base that was in place 1982 was mostly gone and although the housing market pricing retreated in 1982; it had not been knocked off its feet and folks buying houses up until the melt were not the same crowd who owned houses in 1982. One could still hear this chat two years after the market melt. I must believe some of these folks are so locked into charts and graphs or a thinking pattern of which I am not aware or part of; that I have a difficult time finding a meeting place of thoughts with these individuals. We flew straight into the comments from GoldmanSachs (April/May, 2010) and others that the 10 year Treasury yield was moving towards 5.5% "soon". We held onto our bonds and even bought FLBIX and held this for awhile with a nice profit.
Not that this matters, but there are some folks I read or hear speak whom I must believe are diehard equity only investors. I do not squabble with this, if they know what they are doing; but some of them have no place for a bond of any flavor. I will presume that they do understand bonds; and that in many events, some bond types; being global money, provide indicators that help point fingers towards the equity sectors, as to a direction.
Oh, well; eh?
Thanks for the notes from the experts; in your post.
Comments
I sometimes talk back to the folks chatting about such things; be it from a web page or those projected to us upon the flat screen.
I am, by no means a brilliant investment thinker; but I do recall the 1st year after the market melt and the experts comparing the period as similar to the recession of 1982. My small pea brain thought, no way. The manufacturing base that was in place 1982 was mostly gone and although the housing market pricing retreated in 1982; it had not been knocked off its feet and folks buying houses up until the melt were not the same crowd who owned houses in 1982. One could still hear this chat two years after the market melt.
I must believe some of these folks are so locked into charts and graphs or a thinking pattern of which I am not aware or part of; that I have a difficult time finding a meeting place of thoughts with these individuals.
We flew straight into the comments from GoldmanSachs (April/May, 2010) and others that the 10 year Treasury yield was moving towards 5.5% "soon". We held onto our bonds and even bought FLBIX and held this for awhile with a nice profit.
Not that this matters, but there are some folks I read or hear speak whom I must believe are diehard equity only investors. I do not squabble with this, if they know what they are doing; but some of them have no place for a bond of any flavor. I will presume that they do understand bonds; and that in many events, some bond types; being global money, provide indicators that help point fingers towards the equity sectors, as to a direction.
Oh, well; eh?
Thanks for the notes from the experts; in your post.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch