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Due to a job change I need to roll over my 401k from former employer. I have most (>85%) of my retirement funds invested in stocks, I want to put all of this money into something more stable, I was thinking something along the lines of the Permanent Portfolio? Minimum investment not a problem as long as its less than $100K. What do ya'll think?
You will get as many answers/choices as there are opinions. The "one" fund will be different for everyone. For me it's the Thornburg Investment Builders Fund (TIBIX) or the IVA Worldwide Fund (IVWIX) a couple of the few remaining mutual funds that I own. For the life of me I have never been able to get my head around what is so appealing about the Permanent Portfolio unless there is a gold bull run going on. there are gold funds for that.
PRPFX is a significant component of my portfolio, so I'm a fan. But you need to decide what your expectations are for this fund's returns going forward. My expectations for this fund may be different then your's or others. I do not believe it will stay even close to 17% return/year pace it has been on for the last 3 years or even 11+% over the last 10 years. My expectation is to get~7-8% with low volatility.
If you want only one fund, I might go with a Target Date fund, like the T. Rowe Price variety. You would have diversity in one package. You can dial in the amount of risk you want to take by choosing the target retirement date. I wouldn't even be that concerned that the date on the fund matches up with your retirement date. I would look at the equity/bond distribution and decide by that. If you want to be 60% stocks, go with the 2010 fund. If you want less risk (less potential reward) go 50% equity, I think thats the 2005 fund. Any way, you can dial in the risk you are comfortable with.
VWINX I would not place all my chips here or with any fund; but very low ER, has ridden the storms of 2011 well, and look at the middle three letters of the ticker.
A nominally conservative fund, which may provide a good blend with other choices.
If you are rolling it into another 401k then it would be helpful if you indicate what is available to you. If you are rolling it into a traditional IRA then the choices are many.
I have a real hard time with "one fund" - there's just so many and it's difficult to know what's best for someone else (and I would never devote so much to one fund). If I had to pick *one* relatively stable fund I'd say either Marketfield (MFLDX) or I particularly like the diversified AQR Risk Parity (AQRNX).
You need to think about the bigger picture. You'd get a different answer if you're 40 years to retire and love tracking such things, than if you're 10 years out and just hope to make a decision and be done with it.
In general, I'd consider a target-date retirement fund for much of your portfolio - broad diversification, automatic rebalancing and automatic asset allocation shifts. T. Rowe Price is the best of them.
I apparently did not make it clear, the 401-k rollover is exclusive of the bulk of my retirement funds. Actually thinking about making withdrawals (over 59.5) this year and next (to avoid increasing tax bracket) and paying off mortgage on home and rental property instead. But thanks for you inputs!
Considering that you want a fund that will diversify you away from stock, I would think that Pimco All Asset All Authority (PAUDX) is worth a close look. It's global in outlook, can invest--or short--any assets or asset class, as the name implies, and aims to avoid risk. Excellent track record, especially vis-a-vis the stock markets.
Like Berwin Income and Wellesley Income, mentioned above, it throws off quite a high yield so it may not be optimal if taxes are a concern.
PRPFX has had a great extended run, however, it is heavily a bet against the dollar, with its large holdings in precious metals and Swiss assets. Personally, if I had only one fund, I would prefer greater asset diversification.
There is no best fund, but there are a lot of great managers. All of them will have periods of underperformance, so you need to accept this fact of investing. PRPFX is certainly an intriguing option. I disagree that it is a heavy bet against the dollar. The large amount of Treasuries would say otherwise. In fact, one could argue that the fund is an all-weather fund...Treasuries, Swiss francs, gold/silver, real estate, energy, and other assorted growth stocks. It defies logic in may respects, but it keeps on ticking. It could be a core hold for some of your dollars.
MFLDX is certainly an option. Michael Aronstein takes a very broad macro view in his management of this fund, and he does a very good job. I would like expenses to be lower, but the fund has beaten the S&P 500 with much less risk over the life of the fund. It's another alternative way to hedge your bets.
We are not fans of target-date funds. I have a lot more faith in someone like Tom Forester and his FVALX than some formulaic product that could have real downside in either a market collapse or spike in interest rates.
And there oare other options like FPACX (when it is open to new investors) and OAKBX that have stood the test of time. Someone else mentioned TIBIX, which we like a lot, too. I would use these kinds of funds as additions to some of the others mentioned above or by other posters.
Another fund to consider for the mix is GLRBX. But like others I would not bet everything on a single horse. Spread your money on a number of funds mentioned in this thread.
Comments
If you want only one fund, I might go with a Target Date fund, like the T. Rowe Price variety. You would have diversity in one package. You can dial in the amount of risk you want to take by choosing the target retirement date. I wouldn't even be that concerned that the date on the fund matches up with your retirement date. I would look at the equity/bond distribution and decide by that. If you want to be 60% stocks, go with the 2010 fund. If you want less risk (less potential reward) go 50% equity, I think thats the 2005 fund. Any way, you can dial in the risk you are comfortable with.
Good luck to you...
A nominally conservative fund, which may provide a good blend with other choices.
Regards,
Catch
You need to think about the bigger picture. You'd get a different answer if you're 40 years to retire and love tracking such things, than if you're 10 years out and just hope to make a decision and be done with it.
In general, I'd consider a target-date retirement fund for much of your portfolio - broad diversification, automatic rebalancing and automatic asset allocation shifts. T. Rowe Price is the best of them.
For what it's worth,
David
http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/f.aspx?pgid=hetopquote&t=berix
Like Berwin Income and Wellesley Income, mentioned above, it throws off quite a high yield so it may not be optimal if taxes are a concern.
PRPFX has had a great extended run, however, it is heavily a bet against the dollar, with its large holdings in precious metals and Swiss assets. Personally, if I had only one fund, I would prefer greater asset diversification.
MFLDX is certainly an option. Michael Aronstein takes a very broad macro view in his management of this fund, and he does a very good job. I would like expenses to be lower, but the fund has beaten the S&P 500 with much less risk over the life of the fund. It's another alternative way to hedge your bets.
We are not fans of target-date funds. I have a lot more faith in someone like Tom Forester and his FVALX than some formulaic product that could have real downside in either a market collapse or spike in interest rates.
And there oare other options like FPACX (when it is open to new investors) and OAKBX that have stood the test of time. Someone else mentioned TIBIX, which we like a lot, too. I would use these kinds of funds as additions to some of the others mentioned above or by other posters.