FYI: The question of when the Fed will finally raise its Fed Funds rate is a key topic of interest for anyone that follows the market these days. In this regards, below we introduce our Bespoke "Countdown To Liftoff" measure. The measure uses basic assumptions and Fed Funds futures prices to predict the number of months before a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. As of last June, markets were pricing a hike in June 2015, less than six months from where we are today. Since then, though, some nerve has been lost: the measure hit a multi-year low as recently as last Thursday, with the market pricing in a hike for the September meeting. Following those lows, though, we've seen a significant repricing (visible on the chart) as volatility and mixed economic data have pushed expectations out. As of today, our "Countdown to Liftoff" measure projects the first Fed rate hike all the way out to December (10.98 months from today to be exact).
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2015/1/15/countdown-to-liftoff-getting-longer.html?printerFriendly=true
