FYI: In each month’s ISM reports on the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, respondents to the survey are asked which commodities are rising in price and which are falling. We track these numbers on a monthly basis and have found that they do a good job of tracking, or even anticipating, moves in the overall headline inflation rate. In both surveys over the last several months we have seen a consistent trend where the number of commodities falling in price has exceeded the number of commodities rising in price. Along with that trend, we also saw the y/y change in the CPI follow suit to the downside. In the last couple of months, though, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the number of commodities falling in price, and as that pace slows we should see inflation readings level off and start to tick higher.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/ism-commodities-survey-drifting-higher/
