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Are Investors Obsessed With Black Swans ?

Comments

  • Not really. Several big unknowns are coming - slowing earnings, Eurozone, China's hard landing, another global recession in 2013 and etc.

    Many investors got burned badly in 2008 and they want to be more conservative going forward.
  • edited October 2012
    Disappointing to me that folks like Christian Wagner, founder and chief investment officer of Longview Capital Management LLC, get portrayed as modern day risk managers.

    Here's strategy from the Longview site, emphasizing "Downside Management."

    A Flexible Strategy for A Changing World

    The Longview Global Allocation Fund seeks to preserve and grow capital by producing absolute returns with reduced volatility. At Longview, we believe the changing global landscape presents investors with an unprecented opportunity to shift their investment perspective, establishing a global allocation strategy as the core of their investment portfolio.


    Here is the performance of their showcase fund Longview Global Allocation LONGX, which I believe shows they captured most of the downside and little of the upside:

    image
    And, for the privilege of owning LONGX, investors get to pay 5.75% front load and 2.72% ER.

    Can you believe?
  • edited October 2012
    Reply to @Sven: what you described are known unknowns: slowdown in earnings is widely expected and well telegraphed; China / Eurozone 'hard lending' are a possibility. These are not black swans by definition -- black swans would be unknown unknowns.
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