Goldman Sachs Mid-Year Outlook

MJG

Hi Guys,

In his newly minted book “The Signal and the Noise”, author Nate Silver introduces readers to Jan Hatzius, chief economist for the Global Investment Research division of Goldman Sachs. The position alone establishes that Hatzius has gravitas and power to influence.

Additionally, Silver saddles Hatzius with yet another accolade: that of an honest man who acknowledges how easily his forecasts might be wrong. According to Silver, this is a rare commodity among forecasters and economists. Chief among these attributes are Jan Hatzius’s skepticism of correlations without causation, and the requirement to identify accuracy boundaries for all forecasts.

Up to this point, economist Hatzius has escaped my attention. Based on Nate Silver’s endorsement, I searched the Internet for some video predictions made by Hatzius. A plethora ( perhaps a plague if you deem his projections negatively) of such videos exist. My quick evaluation of several of these predictions is that they are reasonable assessments of the global economy.

For what it’s worth, here is a Link to a June, 2012 presentation that addresses prospects for the latter-half of 2012. It is titled “2012 Mid-Year Economic Outlook”. The Link also provides access to four other Goldman Sachs video presentations. If it has been posted on MFO earlier, I apologize for my repetition and/or tardiness.

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/focus-on/outlook/index.html

Enjoy this brief summary of the Goldman Sachs anticipated global market rewards and failures for the remainder of this year. You can contrast Hatzius’s mid-term projections against his initial 2012 year forecast.

Best Regards.

VintageFreak

IMHO, opinions from investment banks should not be publicized. That only benefits them as everyone who believes them makes it possible for them to front run the crowed.

I'll read what GMO or FPA think. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley produce ANALysis.

I'm the Vintage Freak and I approve this message.