FYI: Aof this morning’s cold open, the S&P 500 is down 7.5% or so.
The Fed is hiking interest rates. Mortgage rates are rising. Homebuilder stocks are getting annihilated. The economic recovery is well into its ninth year. The unemployment rate is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.
People are asking — are the markets predicting a recession?
The old joke is that the stock market has predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.
Investors assume the stock market is forward-looking, so when pundits begin “reading the tea leaves” to look for clues as to what may happen next the knee-jerk reaction is to look at the direction of stocks.
Historically speaking, the stock market hasn’t gotten ahead of many recessions.
Regards,
Ted
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/10/can-the-stock-market-predict-the-next-recession/
