Hi Guys,
There is certainly no shortage of market forecasters and their countless forecasts. Here is a Link that summarizes a rather impressive number of such recent forecasts:
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2018/survq418These guys are said to be professional forecasters. Wow! That is impressive. The article presents a countless number of charts that I suppose adds gravitas to their projections. But how accurate have their forecasts been in the past? At this moment, I don't know the answer to that obvious question. I will give it a little research time, but I'm not optimistic. It does depend on what questions are asked and the criteria for assessing the predictions accuracy.
Regardless, please enjoy the article.
Many such assessments are very common. It took seconds to locate them. Here is a Link to one such extensive review of forecaster's accuracy:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2017/files/2017020pap.pdfI haven't read the article, but the summary of their findings is no surprise. Here is a quote from that article's summary section:
" First, if past performance is a reasonable guide to future accuracy, considerable uncertainty surrounds all macroeconomic projections, including those of FOMC prticipants."
It appears that the professionals are no better than the non-professionals. Why am I not surprised? Forecasting is a Loser's game.
Best Regards
