Re JohnN's Q: Which funds would you folks most likely hold for another 1-3 yrs?

bee

I liked your question enough to post it (as recommended by others)...hope you are O.K. with the imposition. I am also very curious what other see as investment prospects over the next 1-3 years.

I am in the camp that bonds continue to provide capital appreciation through most of 2013 with the belief that there's still a lot of deleveraging that needs to happen. 30 Year treasuries move from 2.8% to 2%...the 10 year treasury moves to 1%. This equates to a 10 percent capital appreciation on say BTTRX (American Century Zero Coupon Bond Fund 2025). I still like PONDX and use it's performance as a chart tool to chart other funds I hold.

Thinking positively, I believe job growth will continue to be muted as we put on a new pair of "tax pants" that will feel a lot tighter than the wardrobe we've been wearing for the last ten years. Eventually, the government will take some of this "tax revenue" and redirect it back into the economy with the intention of growing jobs by incentifying Infrastructure (Construction), Manufacturing, Energy, and Education. Our country's new found energy sources will play a big part in our economic turnaround and I believe benefits will be felt in US manufacturing and chemical production sectors due to lower input costs. Many of these jobs will not require a college degrees, but instead, highly competitive technical training which the government will incentify the training costs. Germany and Japan will colaborate with the US in the quest to develop lean manufacturing plants (energy efficient, environmentally friendly, and highly technical) that will be a model for the world...probably already in place in China except for the environmentally friendly piece.

I see these dynamics as being good for all investments across the board which will pull investors out of bonds and into equities...but income investors will have to see it gain momentum first...eventually providing enough growth to raise interest rates. All this may be in the 3-10 years time frame. Buy dividend paying Global equities (Global Equity Funds) on market pull backs.

In the meantime, be patient...wait for buying opportunities and hold your "sleep buddy" investments...investment party yet to be announced.

kevindow

d

claimui

Definitely PAUIX. I assume that Rob Arnott is always well positioned regardless of the situation (or at least that he will do a better job of positioning than I would).

RPHYX -- but I don't know if that counts. It has a very specific purpose and I will keep it as long as it continues to meet that purpose.

I also plan to keep my more conservative equity funds, ARIVX and APPIX, for a while, because I think I really need to judge how these perform over a full market cycle and not just over a bull year like 2012.

Ted

I plan on holding PRHSX, PFF & PONCX.
Regards,
Ted

johnN

Plan to hold
VGSTX vanguard star
PRPFX permanent portfolio
LSBRX loomis funds
energy - VNQ and PSPFX
health care - vanguard health care etf
reasons: good managers, good trust companies, good records long term, reasonable fees

hank

Wow - some nice analysis from bee. Your optimistic take on bonds may prove right. But, like the roof already sagging from the weight of heavy snow, it's dry inside for now - but you don't want to be in there when she comes down! Therefore, floating rate funds rank high with me. A bit less yield, but some protection just in case. I own Price's PRFRX, but there are many (and perhaps better) ones to choose from. Also, one can gain a modicum of bond exposure and profit from any remaining upside without going "all-in". Therefore, I continue to like hybrid funds that can vary their exposure to various bonds (or bond funds) somewhat at the manager's discretion - though there's also a static allocation component. Here, I'll stick with three of the best: PRWCX, OAKBX, and TRRIX. I think a good international bond fund ought to be a staple. OIBAX has done very well for 15+ years in part due to a small allocation in the EM sector. Unfortunately, might be hard to own without paying a load.

Alot of this has to do with age, tax situation, and other factors. Those youngsters on the board certainly ought to be alot more aggressively positioned than those of us in the 65+ crowd. And thanks to John & bee.

Mark

I hold a number of high-quality individual preferred stocks and pipeline companies which I fully expect to be in my portfolio for the next 1-3 years unless I can trade up for more income at lower prices. However, I don't see that happening except in another 2008-like washout. With respect to mutual funds I figure TIBIX, DLTNX, FCNTX, FAIRX, MAPIX, MSMLX and WAEMX will still be with me.

scott

I agree with Mark on the pipeline companies. I hold a number of individual stock positions with a long-term view. While most are plays on resources or EM, in the "pleasantly boring" slot I like Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY), a sort of junior Procter and Gamble with increasing EM exposure and an interesting product mix (as well as a 3.1% yield)

As for funds, I continue to like Ivy Asset (WASYX) and Marketfield (MFLDX), as well as a few others (AQR's Defensive funds have worked nicely as lower volatility funds - AZENX vs EEM etf, for example): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AZENX+Interactive#symbol=azenx;range=ytd;compare=eem;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined; ) although I think my interests have veered more towards single names in recent months.

AndyJ

I'd guess it'd be continuing with the funds I've been happy with for several years -- mainly PRBLX (with strategic switches to the growthier PARWX), ARTKX, MACSX, and MAPIX -- plus a couple of newer favorites from the last year or so: FMIJX and PDIIX ... and keeping Pimco overall at around 30% of the portfolio.

Investor

Under normal conditions, I expect to have 85% of the funds I have currently have in my portfolio to remain for another year.

I am likely to dump PONDX and SUBFX if they start to fall behind. I bought these as trading positions.

I think the following funds that I have is highly likely to remain 3-year horizon.

AKREX, ARTKX, FDGRX, FLPSX, FRIFX, FMIJX, MAPIX, YAFFX

MaxBialystock

Over three years, through 2015, I expect to keep PREMX and DLFNX....PREMX is my biggest position. DLFNX is one of my smallest.

MAPIX, MAINX, MAPOX and MSCFX will be held, too, the way things are looking now. If TRAMX somehow manages a good run-up, I might roll it back into PREMX. I took only $3,000 of my PREMX stake and bought TRAMX shares late last summer at $7.19, hoping that some circumstances might converge to cause TRAMX to outperform for at least a short time. In the Middle East, this is the Rothschild "blood in the streets" moment.

MikeM

Unless something changes with managers or management philosophy, equity funds that will stick around are at a fairly high percentage are YAFFX, ARIVX and MACSX (which you could argue is more of an allocation fund). I have smaller stakes in ODVIX, UMBWX and MSMLX which I could add to if markets drop.

For bonds, I'll likely hold on to MWTRX, TPINX and MAINX. I bought into PONDX this year, but I worry a little about a fund that goes up so high for so long - but plan to hold. I still hold a small percentage in LSBRX but this may not last. I have reduced the LSBRX stake over the last couple months to buy PONDX.

I really like allocation funds, and I've collected a stable I'm comfortable with; FPACX, PGDPX and PAUIX. FAAFX is also in the allocation stable and I intend to hold on for the ride because over a market cycle I believe Berkowitz is a good bet.

I hold a few other's, but I consider the above as my hold-onto funds