FYI: Consistent with late-cycle dynamics, the U.S. consumer backdrop remains strong with low near-term risk of recession. Low U.S. recession risk implies it's too early to have high conviction in the likelihood of extremely bearish scenarios. However, the policy backdrop is highly uncertain, and the direction of monetary and trade policies unclear.
In this whitepaper, Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research team provides their update on the business cycle and what investors might expect in a late-cycle environment.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.etf.com/docs/BusinessCycle.pdf
