Scott,
Awhile ago you mentioned TPNTF, which trades on the pink sheets and is invested in Dan Loeb's Third Point Offshore. I know it was mentioned that he was looking at publicly listing his reinsurance, a la Greenlight Capital with Einhorn but hadn't pulled the trigger yet. If I was interested in investing would you recommend going the pink sheets route or waiting for the reinsurance company to be listed publically whenever that is. I think he has had an great year in 2012 and wanted to put some money his way as a sleave with my alternative investments. What are your thoughts? Anyone else with a thought would be greatly appreciated.
Comments
It's not that a discount is necessarily a bad thing, but the level of discount has moved around wildly during the fund's history - too much, I think, and I don't want to have to worry and/or trade around a discount to NAV.
Additionally, the pink sheet version is highly illiquid and doesn't trade much. The London version doesn't trade much, either, although it's certainly more liquid than the pink sheet version.
I think the reinsurance vehicle - if it ever goes public - will be interesting to see if it performs any better than Greenlight RE, which I've owned on a couple of occasions over the last few years and will not likely own again. The concept of an alternate way to invest with a David Einhorn is compelling, but the focus seems almost entirely on the reinsurance business, which has never seemed to be a standout. People seem to continually wait until it gets around book value (which it is slightly under book at the moment), then sell the mild jumps when they (at least in the past) have come along, but as a long-term holding, I don't care for it unless the reinsurance side starts to become a stronger performer.
In a situation where a star investor invests the float of an insurance business, I think Fairfax Financial Holdings is a more interesting stock - that company's float is invested by Prem Watsa, who is considered the Buffett of Canada. Watsa saw the financial crisis coming and shorted subprime and other financial entities - which was part of the reason Fairfax was up in 2008. It has not done quite as well since, although hasn't done badly. Watsa became a substantial shareholder in RIMM and is now on that company's board.
Lastly, while Loeb is a great investor (as is Einhorn), in terms of public vehicles, I'd rather suggest Marketfield (although MFLDX shares are now closed) than TPTNF or GLRE.
In terms of Third Point Offshore, Mebane Faber has written a bit on this (on his blog and in his book, "The Ivy Portfolio") and other, similar London-traded funds (and had at one point planned an ETF of them - then 2008 happened.)
http://www.mebanefaber.com/2012/08/13/hedge-fund-etf/
Global X filed for an ETF fund-of-funds of these funds early last year, but the fund has not happened.
http://www.mebanefaber.com/2012/03/27/13f-listed-hedge-funds-etfs-on-the-way/
Bill Ackman has been preparing a London public hedge fund, as well, which is now looking like it will happen sometime early this year.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/01/pershing-square-capitalizes-new-hedge-fund-with-over-1b-ahead-of-ipo/