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These two are also referenced by above article for those that has many years to retire but wondering if they have saved appropriately to their age group demands:
Retirement decisions are surely among the most difficult and stressful that anyone but everyone must eventually address. And the most successful retirements will be achieved the sooner that that issue is confronted; the earlier the better.
Up until just 20 years ago, that vexing problem could only be insufficiently analyzed using deterministic methods that completely failed to capture the uncertainty of future portfolio returns and its volatility.
Recently, these forecasting deficiencies could be mostly relaxed using Monte Carlo simulation calculators. I say relaxed because the uncertainties of the future marketplace can never be removed. However, Monte Carlo techniques can parametrically explore the impact of these uncertainties on portfolio survival likelihoods given various withdrawal rates. With super speed, these Monte Carlo simulations will estimate retirement wealth survival for whatever scenario the simulation user elects to study. Portfolio survival probabilities are the final output.
These calculations are completed with lightening speed on numerous websites these days. Here are Links to two such sites:
The first Link is to the MoneyChimp site. It is simplicity itself and allows for both a pre-retirement portfolio estimated return and volatility and a post-retirement projected return and volatility. It is extremely fast as it performs 1000 random simulations. Since the controlling returns are randomly selected within the machine, identically repeating the same calculation will generate a slightly different probability outcome.
The second Link is to the Flexible Retirement Planner site. It is slightly more complex than the MoneyChimp site, but it is also more detailed in its analyses. For example, it divides your portfolio into taxable, deferred tax, and tax free components. Also it permits several spending options during the drawdown phase of the retirement.
Both sites provide excellent Monte Carlo simulators. I recommend you try both of them. Do numerous “what if” scenarios to test the survivability robustness of your approaching retirement.
I am certain that these Monte Carlo analyses will better inform your savings, your retirement date, and your portfolio withdrawal rate decisions.
I resorted to Monte Carlo computations when making my retirement decisions, and believe they emboldened me and gave me some needed comfort. By way of full disclosure, I did not use the two simulators that I referenced; they were not available at my critical moment.
When dealing with uncertainty and not deterministic events, Monte Carlo methods are the proper tools to apply.
Reply to @MJG: Thanks for pointing out to additional valuable links on this subject. A couple times a year, I do use FinancialEngines.com for monte-carlo simulation of my portfolio (actually integrated to my 401k free of charge to me). It gives better understanding of spread of outcomes for portfolio success which is better than static assumptions.
Having said that I think the blog is well prepared, makes modest assumptions and gives a ballpark figure that is reasonable. I think It is important because most people have not even made back of the envelope calculations or is many years away from retirement that they do not yet need the report offered by monte-carlo simulations and simpler scheme is sufficient.
This blog and most monte-carlo simulations do not incorporate the impact of health care costs in retirement. Given health-care costs have risen much more than the overall inflation, I would consider additional margin of safety or need for other insurance arrangements.
I too like and occasionally still use the Financial Engines product developed by Noble Laureate Bill Sharpe. It is mathematically a rigorous and superior Monte Carlo tool. Bill Sharpe has dedicated his work to improve the lot of us small independent investors. Hooray for him.
One issue that I currently have with Financial Engines is that I access it through my Vanguard affiliation so when it recommends some portfolio modifications, that sponsored site tends to follow the Vanguard tradition of fewer holdings and Index-like elements. The financial linkage with Vanguard provides a potential incentive for biased recommendations and makes their proposed changes somewhat suspect. That’s just me speculating aloud without any substantial evidence of any bias.
The two sites I referenced offer three solid benefits. They are both free and free from sponsorship pressures. They are exceptionally easy to use. Their simple input format allows for rapid parametric study and exploration of countess what-if scenarios.
For MFO member general participation I prefer and recommend the sites mentioned over Financial Engines. In some instances, the reverse might be true. In the financial world it almost never is an either/or situation.
Comments
Retirement decisions are surely among the most difficult and stressful that anyone but everyone must eventually address. And the most successful retirements will be achieved the sooner that that issue is confronted; the earlier the better.
Up until just 20 years ago, that vexing problem could only be insufficiently analyzed using deterministic methods that completely failed to capture the uncertainty of future portfolio returns and its volatility.
Recently, these forecasting deficiencies could be mostly relaxed using Monte Carlo simulation calculators. I say relaxed because the uncertainties of the future marketplace can never be removed. However, Monte Carlo techniques can parametrically explore the impact of these uncertainties on portfolio survival likelihoods given various withdrawal rates. With super speed, these Monte Carlo simulations will estimate retirement wealth survival for whatever scenario the simulation user elects to study. Portfolio survival probabilities are the final output.
These calculations are completed with lightening speed on numerous websites these days. Here are Links to two such sites:
http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/volatility/montecarlo.htm
http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/wp/
The first Link is to the MoneyChimp site. It is simplicity itself and allows for both a pre-retirement portfolio estimated return and volatility and a post-retirement projected return and volatility. It is extremely fast as it performs 1000 random simulations. Since the controlling returns are randomly selected within the machine, identically repeating the same calculation will generate a slightly different probability outcome.
The second Link is to the Flexible Retirement Planner site. It is slightly more complex than the MoneyChimp site, but it is also more detailed in its analyses. For example, it divides your portfolio into taxable, deferred tax, and tax free components. Also it permits several spending options during the drawdown phase of the retirement.
Both sites provide excellent Monte Carlo simulators. I recommend you try both of them. Do numerous “what if” scenarios to test the survivability robustness of your approaching retirement.
I am certain that these Monte Carlo analyses will better inform your savings, your retirement date, and your portfolio withdrawal rate decisions.
I resorted to Monte Carlo computations when making my retirement decisions, and believe they emboldened me and gave me some needed comfort. By way of full disclosure, I did not use the two simulators that I referenced; they were not available at my critical moment.
When dealing with uncertainty and not deterministic events, Monte Carlo methods are the proper tools to apply.
Good luck and Best Wishes.
Having said that I think the blog is well prepared, makes modest assumptions and gives a ballpark figure that is reasonable. I think It is important because most people have not even made back of the envelope calculations or is many years away from retirement that they do not yet need the report offered by monte-carlo simulations and simpler scheme is sufficient.
This blog and most monte-carlo simulations do not incorporate the impact of health care costs in retirement. Given health-care costs have risen much more than the overall inflation, I would consider additional margin of safety or need for other insurance arrangements.
Hi Investor,
I too like and occasionally still use the Financial Engines product developed by Noble Laureate Bill Sharpe. It is mathematically a rigorous and superior Monte Carlo tool. Bill Sharpe has dedicated his work to improve the lot of us small independent investors. Hooray for him.
One issue that I currently have with Financial Engines is that I access it through my Vanguard affiliation so when it recommends some portfolio modifications, that sponsored site tends to follow the Vanguard tradition of fewer holdings and Index-like elements. The financial linkage with Vanguard provides a potential incentive for biased recommendations and makes their proposed changes somewhat suspect. That’s just me speculating aloud without any substantial evidence of any bias.
The two sites I referenced offer three solid benefits. They are both free and free from sponsorship pressures. They are exceptionally easy to use. Their simple input format allows for rapid parametric study and exploration of countess what-if scenarios.
For MFO member general participation I prefer and recommend the sites mentioned over Financial Engines. In some instances, the reverse might be true. In the financial world it almost never is an either/or situation.
Best Regards.