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Emerging markets land top of managers‘ portfolios with rising rates
Emerging markets land top of managers‘ portfolios with rising rates
By David Randall
NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) – Rising short-term interest rates in the United States are prompting Lipper Award-winning bond fund managers to add emerging-market debt and non-agency backed residential mortgages that they say offer more potential for gains in the year ahead.
When I saw this I wondered, what rising rates? Then I notice this was written in the spring when everyone (incorrectly) thought that would be the case.
@MikeM ...hi sir maybe in 9 months feds may raise rate again, dows may reach 29k
when we find out 4q 2018 was indeed a large correct ion/ small recession stock pulled back -15%
n focus - Economics How Q4 ranks among the worst 20 quarters of the past half century
-gobal stocks have suffered their worst quarter since 2011. We look at how it compared with the 20 worst quarters over the last 48 years and the potential silver lining for investors today._
Yeah - a confusing article. It says “Posted by SDD Contributor December 15, 2019” above the article. Than, within the article, it reverts to the original March (first publication) date. Stuff happens. I’d give John a pass on that one.
Well now ... Higher rates have been prophesied for at least 6 or 7 years now. I suspect the reasons it hasn’t happened are complicated and might even blow over into politics - Heaven forbid.
Rates fell (unexpectedly) for much of this year, but have reversed fairly sharply (upward) the past 6 weeks or so. The 10-year Treasury’s above 1.8%. Not sure what the 2-year’s at. But I’d guess money market funds will be soon creeping towards 2%.*
While rates have risen, there’s a lot of speculation the Dollar is going to weaken against other currencies. Trump has said recently he wants it to, and gold seems to be indicating that’s in the works as well. Central banks are loading up on gold. Rumors abound that the Fed is soon going to start purchasing longer dated bonds to try to hold rates down and spur growth (around year’s end.)
EM? In a wreaking dollar situation EM currencies would be attractive. If my time horizon was a bit longer I’d be holding some. As far as EM equities - that’s anybody’s guess. there’s a lot more parts in motion to consider.
* FYI - Here’s some current rates as posted on Bloomberg around noon 12/16:
2 YR Treasury. 1.64%
5 YR Treasury. 1.72%
10 YR - 1.89%
30 YR - 2.31
Vanguard’s Prime mm fund was yielding around 1.7% as of Friday.
Comments
when we find out 4q 2018 was indeed a large correct ion/ small recession stock pulled back -15%
n focus - Economics
How Q4 ranks among the worst 20 quarters of the past half century
-gobal stocks have suffered their worst quarter since 2011. We look at how it compared with the 20 worst quarters over the last 48 years and the potential silver lining for investors today._
https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/how-q4-ranks-among-the-worst-20-quarters-of-the-past-half-century/
Well now ... Higher rates have been prophesied for at least 6 or 7 years now. I suspect the reasons it hasn’t happened are complicated and might even blow over into politics - Heaven forbid.
Rates fell (unexpectedly) for much of this year, but have reversed fairly sharply (upward) the past 6 weeks or so. The 10-year Treasury’s above 1.8%. Not sure what the 2-year’s at. But I’d guess money market funds will be soon creeping towards 2%.*
While rates have risen, there’s a lot of speculation the Dollar is going to weaken against other currencies. Trump has said recently he wants it to, and gold seems to be indicating that’s in the works as well. Central banks are loading up on gold. Rumors abound that the Fed is soon going to start purchasing longer dated bonds to try to hold rates down and spur growth (around year’s end.)
EM? In a wreaking dollar situation EM currencies would be attractive. If my time horizon was a bit longer I’d be holding some. As far as EM equities - that’s anybody’s guess. there’s a lot more parts in motion to consider.
* FYI - Here’s some current rates as posted on Bloomberg around noon 12/16:
2 YR Treasury. 1.64%
5 YR Treasury. 1.72%
10 YR - 1.89%
30 YR - 2.31
Vanguard’s Prime mm fund was yielding around 1.7% as of Friday.