The best year financial markets have ever had?

davfor

Transport yourself back to this date in 2018. Would you have predicted these results for 2019? (I know the year has exceeded my modest expectations for the markets.)

For all the angst about trade wars, geopolitics and a sputtering and overly indebted global economy, 2019 might just be the best year investors have ever had.

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra

https://reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-2019-graphic/the-best-year-financial-markets-have-ever-had-idUSKBN1YO266

catch22

Hi @davfor
Thank you for the post. And yes, except for those who peek no more than once a year for re-balance purposes; close to being a bit scary for YTD returns. Our bond fund holding (and most bond funds in general) have been very happy for the most part; although becoming a bit more flat lined recently. Our equity is split between healthcare and technology. If there is a Christmas eve whack this year, as last year; I suspect the high flying of the tech. area will have a big face slap.
No, were not taking the money now and running; and will deal with whatever arrives.
Catch

johnN

Did not expect a stellar return this yr, so many pundits from ... expect flat line and depressions discussions, stocking loosing 25%+ beginning 2019 and economy crashes down early 2019.

That why it's good have a plan and stay diversed and shut out all noises

Tarwheel

I don’t make predictions about the markets or pay attention to those made by others. The returns in 2019 have surprised me, but I’m always surprised by particularly good years. I disagree with the characterization of 2019 as the best year ever, but certainly hasn’t been the best for my portfolio. For example, returns in 2009 were much better for me. I’ve been investing for more than 30 years and there have been many years during that period with comparable or better returns.

hank

Nice post @davfor - I was thinking of doing the same the evening before your post went up just based on how my balanced funds, along with few I don’t own, have done this year. But your colorful and complete graph tells the whole story.

Aside from small amounts in some specialty funds, my equity exposure is thru balanced type funds: PRWCX +24.5%. The other two, RPGAX and DODBX are up close to 20%. My benchmark, 40/60 TRRIX, is a real surprise. Up nearly 16%. I’ll refrain from posting personal performance data, other than to restate as said previously, that most years I tend to track TRRIX quite closely. Those who are into tech and equity-centric funds have done better. But I won’t look a gift-horse in the mouth either.

Last year was a downer for most of us. As far as 2020? Might as well throw darts blindfolded. Who really knows? What is a bit uncommon, I think, is that bonds have held up reasonably well in this still very low rate environment. Nat. resources also seem to be coming around at long last. I guess I agree with Stanley Druckenmiller that equities are in some sort of bubble, but that this could last for years or even decades more - so he stays invested. Good Druckenmiller interview on Bloomberg last week. Tried to link the clip but couldn’t make it work.

@Mark has just posted the Druckenmiller article & video below. The cool thing about Stanley is that his dead-pan delivery would easily qualify him for a slot on late-night comedy TV should he decide some day to get out of the investment business.

Thanks @Mark

Mark

@hank - is this the one

One of the greatest hedge fund managers ever says he couldn’t have been more wrong this year

The article contains links to the full Bloomberg interview.

hank

Mark said:

@hank - is this the one?

Yes - Thanks again Mark. I caught snippets of the interview on-air last week and than one of Bill Fleckenstein’s readers posted the link on his site. Reading Fleck helps keep me sober, as he’s been bearish forever. I’d say his overall sentiment agrees largely with Druckenmiller.