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I don't really listen too much to what Gartman has to say. He can flip-flop and miss calls on CNBC and no one ever calls him on it. No one ever brings up what's up with his ETF (linked below) either.
As for bullish or not, I think the market has gone too far too quickly (not to mention record fund inflows all the sudden after three years of outflows), but I continue to think that long-term, consistent, best-in-class businesses (JandJ, PG) and real, productive assets (oil wells, certain REITs, infrastructure) will fare well in this environment and deliver a nice yield while one waits (and yield will remain in demand if interest rates go higher it's going to be involuntary). Long-term, what the Fed has done won't end well (I don't think there is an exit strategy/ability and it probably won't end well in an inflationary manner) and you have to continue to own assets.
Reply to @scott: you might not believe it but the S&P has actually gone up less this year than it did the past two years during the same time period. I'm not buying much at the moment but I'm not selling either.
Doctor Doom's outlook is short-term bullish, long-term catastrophic:
“The risk of the end game from QE is not going to be goods inflation, it's not going to be a rout in the bond market,” Roubini says. “The risk is ... (that) ... we could create an asset bubble worse than the previous one, which could lead to another financial crisis not this year, not next year, but two or three years down the line ...."
Yep - good read. Nice to see Cramer get a little credit. Well, it really depends on your investing style. Also, re: interest rates, while low rates are nice, they'd seem to have only one way to go. ... If you actively monitor and adjust your portfolio, might want to pull back a bit in steps as she rises. If more of a let-her-run type, stay put. I'd Ike to see a 10% drop from these levels and would be putting back some of the cash I've built since roughly post election. But if the bull storms ahead, no problem there either.
Reply to @scott: About Gartman. I have not listened to him recently. But he often makes comments on Gold that he owns gold in Euro or Dollar etc.
I find this amusing because you can have 1 oz. gold sell it in Eurozone, get euros and turn around and convert euros to dollar immediately. There should not be much difference in dollar value of selling 1 oz. gold and getting paid in dollars. The only difference I can see is commissions in Euro/Dollar conversions and potential small arbitrage opportunity which dealers will immediately drive to zero.
I think he is insulting the intelligence of the audience.
Comments
As for bullish or not, I think the market has gone too far too quickly (not to mention record fund inflows all the sudden after three years of outflows), but I continue to think that long-term, consistent, best-in-class businesses (JandJ, PG) and real, productive assets (oil wells, certain REITs, infrastructure) will fare well in this environment and deliver a nice yield while one waits (and yield will remain in demand if interest rates go higher it's going to be involuntary). Long-term, what the Fed has done won't end well (I don't think there is an exit strategy/ability and it probably won't end well in an inflationary manner) and you have to continue to own assets.
Gartman ETF:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HAG.TO+Interactive#symbol=HAG.TO;range=5y
“The risk of the end game from QE is not going to be goods inflation, it's not going to be a rout in the bond market,” Roubini says. “The risk is ... (that) ... we could create an asset bubble worse than the previous one, which could lead to another financial crisis not this year, not next year, but two or three years down the line ...."
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/nouriel-roubini-bullish-now-mother-bubbles-begun-140143386.html
I find this amusing because you can have 1 oz. gold sell it in Eurozone, get euros and turn around and convert euros to dollar immediately. There should not be much difference in dollar value of selling 1 oz. gold and getting paid in dollars. The only difference I can see is commissions in Euro/Dollar conversions and potential small arbitrage opportunity which dealers will immediately drive to zero.
I think he is insulting the intelligence of the audience.
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/2/19/worst-start-to-the-year-since-2010.html