Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Lightening up a tad (more) and moving the proceeds overseas. Don't really trust the market and that's the one point of quasi-certainty there is. Think about that, the one sliver of sanity I see is the stock market. ouch.
1. US dollar has traded lower against other major currencies such as EURO. 2. Valuation is more attractive 3. US stock and bond markets have been prop up trillion $ QE 4. Elevated pandemic again..
All spot on Sven. We're not handling the virus any way close to right and the economy is going to take a LONG time to recover. Indeed, it will not recover until people feel safe.
It's all about safety and perception. Until people feel it's safe, they aren't going to engage fully in the economy. Too many people not wearing masks and not practicing social distancing and generally behaving like Darwinian idiots.
Now this is all 'on the margin' and I still probably 60/40 US/Int'l but geez, you missed #5. the orange elephant as being a potential black swan event.
Risk analysis? Upside potential at this point seems limited. Downside risk? OMG
Sadly, six months later US is leading the world in COVID death, 138,027. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html We are on track to get 200,000 death by end of summer. Florida just had 15,000 cases last Sunday. Miami hospitals just hit 98% capacity. Don't believe their attitude will end well.
Most Asian countries are reopening their business as they effectively dealt with COVID situation. Europe is recovering nicely and they are maintaining what works to suppress the spreading of virus. I think they present better opportunities in the near term.
I've got to think that this will be the time for Matthews' experience to come forward. I sold out of all of Matthews holdings several years ago, but now may be worth a look. Or, add to one of the Rajiv Jain funds.
Comments
1. US dollar has traded lower against other major currencies such as EURO.
2. Valuation is more attractive
3. US stock and bond markets have been prop up trillion $ QE
4. Elevated pandemic again..
All spot on Sven. We're not handling the virus any way close to right and the economy is going to take a LONG time to recover. Indeed, it will not recover until people feel safe.
It's all about safety and perception. Until people feel it's safe, they aren't going to engage fully in the economy. Too many people not wearing masks and not practicing social distancing and generally behaving like Darwinian idiots.
Now this is all 'on the margin' and I still probably 60/40 US/Int'l but geez, you missed #5. the orange elephant as being a potential black swan event.
Risk analysis? Upside potential at this point seems limited. Downside risk? OMG
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
We are on track to get 200,000 death by end of summer. Florida just had 15,000 cases last Sunday. Miami hospitals just hit 98% capacity. Don't believe their attitude will end well.
Most Asian countries are reopening their business as they effectively dealt with COVID situation. Europe is recovering nicely and they are maintaining what works to suppress the spreading of virus. I think they present better opportunities in the near term.