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MFO Premium Webinar: Guest Lynn Bolin and Back To Basics

Please join us.

This Tuesday, 5 January.

First session will feature my colleague Lynn Bolin, who contributes regularly to Mutual Fund Observer and Seeking Alpha. Second session will be overview.

Register here.

Comments

  • Wow thanks for this and Happy New Year. Lynn ( and Premium!) have become must read for me as I am tilting my mom portfolio ever more defensively.
  • Thanks, Mike,

    I have put together a presentation of topics. Is there anything in particular that you would like to hear about.
  • edited January 3
    Lynn, thanks again. Do you have any thoughts on sites/software that are particularly useful to aggregate portfolio's asset allocation? TRP and Fidelity have strenths and weaknesses(my Mom's primary accounts). Just wondering what your opinion is on the ones you may have used. I'd be interested in Charles' and David's thoughts too. Any higher yielding CEFs look reasonable for a sliver of a retiree's portfolio. TAIL, SWAN getting more attractive? Or less? REALLY looking forward to the seminar! Best to the MFO and Premium team.
  • Mike, I like MFO's Portfolio Tool for the metrics. I use Fidelity's because it it quick and combines funds held elsewhere. Morningstar's has some neat features, but I haven't used it in a while. The December data is available on MFO. I uploaded them into my Ranking System. Here are some of the defensive funds that I own or have written about recently. Over the past few months I sold or reduced holdings in SWAN, DRSK, IAU, and TAIL. I will cover the December Rankings in the Webinar.

    Name, Symbol, Lynn's Rank, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, Yield, SMA10
    Aptus Defined Risk, (DRSK), 89.2, -3.1, 13.4, 0.2, 0.6, 4.5, 1.18, 5.3
    KL Allocation Inst, (GAVIX), 82, -2, 17.2, 4.9, 3, -0.1, 2.16, 11.3
    BlackRock iShares Gold, (IAU), 78.2, -10.3, 21.2, 0.2, 2.4, -0.5, 0, 12.6
    T Rowe Price Multi-Strtgy Tot Rtrn, (TMSRX), 77.1, -4.7, 10.3, 4.6, 2, 9.5, 0.83, 4.5
    Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treas Core, (SWAN), 62.4, -5, 19.4, 5.1, 3, 0.4, 0.35, 7.8
    Invesco S&P 500 Downside Hdgd, (PHDG), 56.4, -6.2, 13.4, 0.3, 1.5, -0.1, 0.64, 14.6
    Hussman Strategic Total Return, (HSTRX), 45.3, -2, 11.4, 0.4, 0.5, -1.7, 0.52, 8.7
    ATAC Rotation Inv, (ATACX), 20.5, -8.1, 36.3, 16, 9.4, -4.4, 0.06, 29.1
    Cambria Tail Risk ETF, (TAIL), 19, -14, -4.1, -5.1, -1.7, -7.1, 0.36, 3.3
  • That was really interesting and fun. Yield/Ulcer Index is the Bolin Ratio. Love it.
  • I am glad you enjoyed it. I had fun putting it together.
  • edited January 7
    Absolutely delightful and informative morning session with Lynn and friends!

    As promised, here is link to chart deck. Will post video shortly.

    Afternoon overview session starts in abut 30 minutes. Can still register here.
  • Sorry Charles. Busy at work. Will review the recorded video later this week. Thanks for putting this together.
  • Thx so much @lynnbolin2021 and @Charles. Very informative and I learned alot. Im going to study the charts a bit more and follow up with questions if thats ok.
  • Thanks for setting up the Webinar @Charles and to those who joined in. Explaining how the systems works and what it means makes me think things through. As I mentioned, I just set up the three trending buckets. Since the Webinar, I realized that I need to fine tune them. Here are the recent changes that I made:

    Trending Bucket
    The Trending Bucket did a good job of showing the funds that have high 3 month trends, 3 month returns, and cash inflows, but I would buy the funds because "I was late to the party." I changed the Trending Bucket to only show funds that were less than 7 points above their 10 month moving average. Upon due diligence, these would be worth considering by some investors.

    Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
    VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF, (ANGL), -14.1, 14.9, 9.5, 3.8, 8.5, 1.6
    Vanguard Intern Div Appreciation Index ETF, (VIGI), -18.8, 20.9, 13.8, 7.4, 7.4, 5.3
    Vanguard Intern Div Appreciation Index Admiral, (VIAAX), -18.8, 20.9, 13.8, 7.4, 7.4, 5.3
    Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF, (VSGX), -22.9, 18.1, 16.1, 8, 11.5, 3.8
    Nuveen ESG Small-Cap ETF, (NUSC), -30.8, 24.8, 29.3, 11.3, 9.4, 5.9

    Crossing Bucket
    I simplified this bucket and fine tuned it to be based more on three month trends to better identify trending funds that are near their ten month moving average. As I pointed out in the Webinar I have owned VGWAX and VEUSX since the 2020 market correction and the adjustments identify these funds. The funds crossing their ten month moving average are value and global funds.

    Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
    Vanguard Windsor Inv, (VWNDX), -28.1, 18.4, 23, 9.5, 10.6, 0.6
    American Funds Capital Income Builder F1, (CIBFX), -15.5, 10, 9.5, 5.1, 3.2, 0
    Vanguard Global Wellington Admiral, (VGWAX), -15.6, 14.6, 10, 5.1, 6.9, 1.9
    Nuance Mid Cap Value Inst, (NMVLX), -19.2, 17.1, 15.3, 5.5, 1, 1.7
    Vanguard European Stock Index Admiral, (VEUSX), -25.7, 15, 16.4, 9.3, 11.3, 0

    Bottom Fishing Bucket

    The Bottom Fishing Bucket is where I made the most changes. I added that the funds must not only have positive 3 month trends, returns, and money inflows, but added that the trends have to beat some percentage of the median trend and inflow and now look for the ones furthest below the ten month moving average. Of the funds that I track, real estate is showing the biggest signs of recovering.

    Name, Symbol, MaxDD, APR, Rtn 3 mon, Trend, Flow, SMA10
    American Century NT Global Real Estate G, (ANRHX), -22.7, 14.8, 9.6, 5.5, 3.2, -6.1
    Cohen & Steers Realty Shares Inc L, (CSRSX), -23.7, 13.6, 8.6, 4.9, 5.1, -6.5
    Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF, (VNQ), -25, 10.8, 9.2, 5.1, 5.6, -7.8
    BlackRock iShares US Real Estate ETF, (IYR), -25.6, 10.2, 8, 4.5, 12, -8.2
    Virtus Duff & Phelps Global Real Estate Secur, (VGISX), -25.7, 13.3, 13.4, 6.9, 1.5, -7.9

    Have a great weekend.
  • edited January 7
    Here's link to video of our morning session with Lynn: Morning Webinar Video
  • edited January 7
    And here's link to chart deck of afternoon general overview session given number of new users.

    And attendant video.
  • edited January 7
    Links to charts and videos all in one place: MFO Webinars - 20210105
  • So I'm brand new to MFO and this afternoon session was exactly what I needed to evaluate MFO Premium. It walks me through the benefits. Awesome overview. Lynn's was also very good but I have a longer investment horizon and he's too smart for me (currently). Ha. But I aspire to be where he is with sorting and filtering in Excel. I'm now exploring why Drawdown Percentages are important to me. Interesting metric.
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