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9-uncomfortable-facts-about-the-u-s-stock-marketIt’s likely true that the reason returns have been so high over the long-run for U.S. stocks is because of the fact that there is so much risk involved at times.
I don’t know why and I don’t know when but eventually investors are going to become uncomfortable once again.
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when there is no point, assume mandatory minimum copy plus pay per word
I've read that guy's stuff a few times and just don't know what to make of it. He gets very close a lot of times to something meaningful or actionable, but just not quite.
But seriously man, you actually quoted this gem:
"I don’t know why and I don’t know when but eventually investors are going to become uncomfortable once again."
Well, at least it rhymes. But my beloved dog could have told me as much. She's never invested in any markets but does watch a lot of TV.
FWIW, in the accounting field, we would group those kinds of statements by the author under "qualified opinion." In layman's terms...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/qualifiedopinion.asp#:~:text=A qualified opinion is a reflection of the auditor's inability,be free from material misstatements.&text=This is an indication that,was able to be determined.
So, either take the criticism personally and lash out, or understand that the first two posters (albeit the first far more intelligent than the second) who read your post and linked article, regard it in much the same vein, and maybe learn something from that.
I finish my article with: I don’t know what you might want to do with mixing or matching these vegetables for recipes in cooking, as you'll have to make that choice.
Did my title mislead the reader? I don't think so. I never suggested from the title that I was going to do anything but provide some data points about the vegetables; not suggest cooking recipes.
I found Mr. Carlson's data points of interest and will presume they are accurate. I did not expect any suggestions as to where the markets are pointed, either up or down; or suggested actions for the retail investor.
@bee Thank you for your numerous links, charts and graphs; and comments over the years, since joining the new "MFO" in April, 2011; as member number 24.
Respectfully,
Catch
So ... can you do an executive summary of this silly thing? What are its takeaways, since you find my snark 'less than actionable'?
His cherrypicking aside, not to mention the comedy bronze of his admission 'This was on the price level only' and his duh observation that cash outperforms bears, I wonder about some of the assertions.
>> 4. From 1969-1981, the stock market underperformed the rate of inflation by more than 56%. The total return for the S&P 500 from 1969-1981 was 105%. Not bad, right?
>> Well, that depends on how you think about returns. Prices rose more than 160% in that same time, meaning the stock market lost roughly 2% annually on a real basis.
Well, unless I am missing something,
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=ffidx
shows that SP500 from summer '69 to summer '81 (I don't know what his exact endpoints are) rose from $10k to >$25k. Meanwhile,
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
shows, for the same timespan or close, that $10k inflated to <$25k.
So wtf? Maybe some editor shoulda asked him for his cites and sites.
And what's with the Japan wackiness? And what's with the risk tautology hindsight at the end?
In other areas this is called portfolio churning or tirespinning. Or having a column due. And the guy manages portfolios at Ritholtz. 'Wealth of common sense' indeed.