John Hussman is out with his August Commentaryhttps://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220815/
As usual it is packed with data and charts and tables. In a nutshell, he makes the same case he has made for years, that valuations are excessive and consequently expected returns for SP500 in years ahead are low or negative.
What I don't remember seeing before is his first chart, based on his "Market intervals".
"The chart below presents the cumulative total return of the S&P 500 in periods where our measures of market internals have been favorable, accruing Treasury bill interest otherwise."
The chart shows the performance of the SP500 when market intervals are uniformly favorable, T -bill returns otherwise.
If his proprietary "Market intervals" are such good predictors, why has his mutual funds done so poorly?