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what can go wrong in closing the EDR take private transaction?

edited April 2 in Other Investing
The stock is trading at $25.75 when the transaction closing price is $27.5. Current insider shareholders already own 91% of the voting and voted in favor of the deal.

"The transaction is subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions and required regulatory approvals. No other stockholder approval is required. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2025."

Current discount is less than 6.8%. If the transaction drags out for a year, not enough discount IMO, given potential litigation by minority shareholders for more consideration and given one can make nearly that much buying 1 yr BBB corporate bonds.

If you are a betting person,

What is the likelihood (assign probabilities) this transaction will close in Q2, Q3, Q4 of 2024 or never closes?

I am betting this will close no later than Q4, 2024 after minority shareholders' suits for a higher price are cleared by the courts. (I am assuming there will be litigation from minority shareholders.)

What is the likelihood any litigation by minority shareholders will actually result in a higher deal price (i.e., higher than $27.5)?

I am betting the deal price will not increase above $27.5 unless a competing bid with a higher price comes along but my probability for a competing bid is less than 20%.


Anyone not wishing to discuss the above in public but otherwise willing to help me out, please send me a private message. I would appreciate all opinions.


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