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It gives some hope for rate cuts sooner than later. Unemployment remains below 4% (not recessionary) while demand growth (as measured by the increase in people with paycheck money in their pockets) is tapering.
The way the markets have been behaving lately, I’d hate to predict how the day ends. But everything looks hot at the moment - including bonds as rates fall. Gold isn’t doing much. Hanging around $2300. Consolidating I think.
So the drop in interest rates is helping equities. There’s been a remarkable correlation between stocks & bonds this year ISTM. Some of today’s uptick is a delayed reaction to something Powell said at the news conference Wednesday about a rate hike being “unlikely” at the next meeting.
Edit: I think a more interesting question is why the economy has stayed hot despite all the Fed tightening & inverted curve? I suspect in large measure that’s $$ going into goods & services that’s been amassed by investors in good markets over many years. Especially - the boomers are spending down before it’s too late. Feel free to disagree. I can’t find anyone else who agrees with me.
This is the “seasonally adjusted number”. The actual estimate was +803,000. It is interesting that everyone accepts the BLS’s adjustments & no one offers an alternative.
The unadjusted numbers show that annually roughly 2.8 million quit their jobs every year end and then the job totals slowly rebuild. OTOH, the adjusted numbers are much lower in December and the increase roughly 250,000 every January.
Comments
So the drop in interest rates is helping equities. There’s been a remarkable correlation between stocks & bonds this year ISTM. Some of today’s uptick is a delayed reaction to something Powell said at the news conference Wednesday about a rate hike being “unlikely” at the next meeting.
Edit: I think a more interesting question is why the economy has stayed hot despite all the Fed tightening & inverted curve? I suspect in large measure that’s $$ going into goods & services that’s been amassed by investors in good markets over many years. Especially - the boomers are spending down before it’s too late. Feel free to disagree. I can’t find anyone else who agrees with me.
The unadjusted numbers show that annually roughly 2.8 million quit their jobs every year end and then the job totals slowly rebuild. OTOH, the adjusted numbers are much lower in December and the increase roughly 250,000 every January.