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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Scared straight portfolio

What do you think of this capital preservation portfolio?
MRFOX just finished 10 year run with 15.8% annual return.

1. Marshfield Concentrated (MRFOX) — 25%
• Role: US Growth / Quality Compounder
• Target: High-quality US companies (e.g., AutoZone, Ross Stores) with pricing power.
• Fee: 1.02%

2. First Eagle Overseas (SGOVX) — 15%
• Role: International Value / Gold Hedge
• Target: Undervalued foreign stocks + holds ~15% physical gold bullion.
• Fee: ~1.15% (Load usually waived at Schwab/Fidelity)

3. AQR Diversifying Strategies (QDSNX) — 15%
• Role: Portfolio Stabilizer / Market Neutral
• Target: Returns uncorrelated to stocks (Arbitrage, Global Macro, etc.).
• Fee: ~1.60%

4. iMGP DBi Managed Futures (DBMF) — 15%
• Role: Crisis Insurance / Trend Following
• Target: Profits from trends (Long/Short) in commodities, currencies, and rates.
• Fee: 0.85%

5. Janus Henderson AAA CLO (JAAA) — 10%
• Role: "Super Cash" / Income
• Target: AAA-rated senior secured loans. High yield (~6-7%) with near-zero duration risk.
• Fee: 0.22%

6. Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) — 10%
• Role: Safety / Currency Hedge
• Target: Mix of Gold, Silver, Swiss Francs, and US Treasuries.
• Fee: 0.82%

7. Pinnacle Value (PVFIX) — 10%
• Role: Deep Value / Micro-Cap
• Target: Tiny, overlooked companies often trading below liquidation value.
• Fee: ~1.40%

Comments

  • edited January 5
    equalizer said:

    What do you think of this capital preservation portfolio?
    MRFOX just finished 10 year run with 15.8% annual return.

    1. Marshfield Concentrated (MRFOX) — 25%
    • Role: US Growth / Quality Compounder
    • Target: High-quality US companies (e.g., AutoZone, Ross Stores) with pricing power.
    • Fee: 1.02%
    [snip]

    I appreciate the upside capture/downside capture ratio metrics for MRFOX and own the fund.
    This OEF routinely looks really different from the S&P 500.
    MRFOX held only 17 stocks and cash comprised 20.4% of its portfolio as of 11/30/25.
    The performance of the Marshield Core Value Equity Composite (SMAs similar to MRFOX)
    has been excellent since its 12/31/89 inception.
    I'm not intimately familiar with all of the remaining funds so I'll refrain from commenting on the portfolio.
  • Does hind sight & fore sight come into play here?
  • I wouldn't put them in my IRA. But if they help you sleep at night I guess they're working for you.

  • most of these break a clear rule of primary control : fees
    but i have realized how wide 'acceptable' is interpreted in both directions.
    ( $0 fees for s&p500 index fund is unacceptable to me due to process and underlying holdings)
  • Seems unnecessarily complex, and very expensive. If you held this mix in a $1m portfolio, you would be paying at least $10,390 in fees each and every year (or more if portfolio grows). But if that is the price you wish to pay to SWAN, so be it.
  • I own several of these ( MRFOX QDSNX SGOVX) after spending a lot of time looking at the alternatives.

    I would be cautious with "one manger" shops like Pinnacle, whose performance rests on just one brain, unless it is in an IRA where you have no tax consequences to sell.

    Fees higher than an index fund have never really bothered me, as long as I get what I pay for. i. e. index level performance with less risk, or significant diversification.

    While everyone knows it is very very difficult to "beat" the SP500, I have become increasingly uncomfortable with it's valuations. Funds that focus on small cap international companies, for example, and other non SP500 stocks that are less prominent are worth the money to me. It has been demonstrated several times, for example, that index funds of small caps and small international funds do not do very well.

    I find it remarkable that M* AI generated fund evaluations are so focused on the fee of a fund, despite the fact that M* entire business plan was founded on finding the best active funds and most of their verbiage still concentrates on this.

  • WABAC said:

    I wouldn't put them in my IRA. But if they help you sleep at night I guess they're working for you.

    Why?
    Only MRFOX and SGOVX are tax friendly, the others should be in tax sheltered funds because they are not tax efficient.

  • Derf said:

    Does hind sight & fore sight come into play here?

    MRFOX, SGOVX, PRPFX, and PVFIX have consistent management style for at least 15 years. JAAA is only 5 years old, but seems like a solid risk/reward choice.

    The others are hindsight plays.
  • dily said:

    Seems unnecessarily complex, and very expensive. If you held this mix in a $1m portfolio, you would be paying at least $10,390 in fees each and every year (or more if portfolio grows). But if that is the price you wish to pay to SWAN, so be it.

    The most expensive thing in investing isn't a 1% expense ratio—it's panic-selling at the bottom. If this portfolio can prevent a big loss like I’ve seen in the past (30-40%), the expensive insurance is worth it.
  • sma3 said:



    I would be cautious with "one manger" shops like Pinnacle, whose performance rests on just one brain, unless it is in an IRA where you have no tax consequences to sell.

    Yes, maybe Oberweis Small-Cap Opportunities Fund OBSOX would be better since it has a deeper bench.
  • equalizer said:

    WABAC said:

    I wouldn't put them in my IRA. But if they help you sleep at night I guess they're working for you.

    Why?
    Only MRFOX and SGOVX are tax friendly, the others should be in tax sheltered funds because they are not tax efficient.

    I would like to add MRFOX to the taxable at some point. For the IRA I'm focusing on NTF only funds as I rebuild the equity portion of my IRA, and MRFOX ain't that where my IRA is. EISIX fills the spot SGOVX might have gone into.

    I don't care for the fund of funds approach, so QDSNX is out, especially at the prices they charge. Nothing but my own SWAN prejudice in action.

    Given the max draw down, worst year performance, and standard deviation of DBMF, I think I could do better with a plain old equity or bond fund.

    I mostly don't care for the difference between price and net asset value you get with bond etf's. Nor do I like to get above 25% in the sort of stuff JAAA trades in. CBLDX fills the space in my IRA that JAAA might have fit into. For me it was the SWANier choice.

    PRPFX has definitely been on a roll owning gold, and stocks like Palantir and Nvidia. It's the sort of fund it might have been nice to get into ten years ago. For a new purchase I went with PMAIX which was one of the few allocation funds to have positive returns in 2022. I'm not optimistic about beating inflation any time soon.

    For the equity portion of the IRA I'm not looking for a specific SCV fund. I think I'll get enough exposure from ALVIX and FMIEX. I might like PVFIX in the taxable, but that space is currently filled by VSMIX. I got into it before it closed. Last I checked, I couldn't even add to it, which is a minor bummer. The same team manages VVOIX, which is still open.
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