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Dear Charles: Year-end, I see the S&P 500 at 26-27%, 30% is not out of the question. Here is the total return for the 500 so far this year. The mean is about 8% on a annual bases 1Day: .16% MTD: 5.45% QTD: 5.45% YTD 20.03% 3Year 19.00% 5Years 8.46%
Reply to @Ted: Thank man. Hope you are correct. I'd be happy to just avoid a major pullback at this point. Get some stability back in the market for long term, if that's possible any more.
I do hope you're both correct, but I put some money in this week (other money had been there long term), so Murphy's Law of Investing ("The stock, fund, market you buy is the only one that tanks - unless all of them do") is probably active.
With a US market P/E over 20, I'm obviously playing the Bernanke put for a few months, but with trepidation. Hope I have the courage to sell with even a modest gain. If one believes Arnott, should be creeping back into EM. Foster was down less than his benchmark; GEGAX down almost 10%.
Bought SQM since Foster did. Always a bad sign when the advisory letter selects your stock as "disappointing" in the portfolio. Of course, he thinks it has a future, so should one double down (only to find that he's sold it), hold or sell? (It's rhetorical, I'll probably double down - this is gambling, right?)
Comments
Here is the total return for the 500 so far this year. The mean is about 8% on a annual bases
1Day: .16%
MTD: 5.45%
QTD: 5.45%
YTD 20.03%
3Year 19.00%
5Years 8.46%
With a US market P/E over 20, I'm obviously playing the Bernanke put for a few months, but with trepidation. Hope I have the courage to sell with even a modest gain. If one believes Arnott, should be creeping back into EM. Foster was down less than his benchmark; GEGAX down almost 10%.
Bought SQM since Foster did. Always a bad sign when the advisory letter selects your stock as "disappointing" in the portfolio. Of course, he thinks it has a future, so should one double down (only to find that he's sold it), hold or sell? (It's rhetorical, I'll probably double down - this is gambling, right?)
I think a couple undervalued sectors remain...certainly basic materials, energy/infrastructure, global financials, and foreign...especially EM/BRIC.
Here M* take on valuation for market overall...about where it should be, if becoming slightly elevated:
But here is same look at basic materials:
And energy:
I'm still trying run with this bull and adding selectively.
Yes, fingers-crossed, it doesn't turn with a vengeance. A continued trot or even stroll would be welcomed.
Good luck, always welcomed.